Inter- and transdisciplinary scenario construction to explore future land-use options in southern Amazonia

Our aim with this paper is to present a novel approach for developing story lines and scenarios by combining qualitative knowledge and quantitative data from different disciplines and discussing the results with relevant decision makers. This research strategy offers a solid foundation for perspectives into the future. The “laboratory” is the Brazilian Amazon, one of the hotspots of land-use change where local and global interests both collide and converge: local livelihoods are affected by regional and global climate change and by the loss of biodiversity caused by local and global economic interests in agro-industrial land use; such use contributes, in turn, to climate change. After decades of diverse policy interventions the question arises: What can we learn from past trajectories for a more sustainable development in the future? To answer this question, we combined qualitative story lines for the region, reviewed by local experts, with quantitative land-use scenarios, to study their regional and local manifestations in space. These results were then discussed again with local and national experts. Our findings suggest that in- depth knowledge of the diverging perspectives at a very local level is a fundamental prerequisite for downscaling global scenarios and upscaling local approaches to sustainable land-use management and thus, to producing communicable and applicable results

Key Challenges for Land Use Planning and Its Environmental Assessments in the Abuja City-Region, Nigeria

Land use planning as strategic instruments to guide urban dynamics faces particular challenges in the Global South, including Sub-Saharan Africa, where urgent interventions are required to improve urban and environmental sustainability. This study investigated and identified key challenges of land use planning and its environmental assessments to improve the urban and environmental sustainability of city-regions. In doing so, we combined expert interviews and questionnaires with spatial analyses of urban and regional land use plans, as well as current and future urban land cover maps derived from Geographic Information Systems and remote sensing. By overlaying and contrasting land use plans and land cover maps, we investigated spatial inconsistencies between urban and regional plans and the associated urban land dynamics and used expert surveys to identify the causes of such inconsistencies. We furthermore identified and interrogated key challenges facing land use planning, including its environmental assessment procedures, and explored means for overcoming these barriers to rapid, yet environmentally sound urban growth. The results illuminated multiple inconsistencies (e.g., spatial conflicts) between urban and regional plans, most prominently stemming from conflicts in administrative boundaries and a lack of interdepartmental coordination. Key findings identified a lack of Strategic Environmental Assessment and inadequate implementation of land use plans caused by e.g., insufficient funding, lack of political will, political interference, corruption as challenges facing land use planning strategies for urban and environmental sustainability. The baseline information provided in this study is crucial to improve strategic planning and urban/environmental sustainability of city-regions in Sub-Saharan Africa and across the Global South, where land use planning faces similar challenges to address haphazard urban expansion patterns.Peer Reviewe

Simulating Urban Land Expansion in the Context of Land Use Planning in the Abuja City-Region, Nigeria

In the Global South, including the Sub-Saharan African city-regions, the possible future urban expansion patterns may pose a challenge towards improving environmental sustainability. Land use planning strategies and instruments for regulating urban expansion are faced with challenges, including insufficient data availability to offer insights into the possible future urban expansion. This study integrated empirical data derived from Geographic Information Systems, Remote Sensing, and surveys of experts to offer insights into the possible future urban expansion under spatial planning scenarios to support land use planning and environmental sustainability of city-regions. We analyzed the spatial determinants of urban expansion, calibrated the land cover model using the Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network and Markov, and developed three scenarios to simulate land cover from 2017 to 2030 and to 2050. The scenarios include Business As Usual that extrapolates past trends; Regional Land Use Plan that restricts urban expansion to the land designated for urban development, and; Adjusted Urban Land that incorporates the leapfrogged settlements into the land designated for urban development. Additionally, we quantified the potential degradation of environmentally sensitive areas by future urban expansion under the three scenarios. Results indicated a high, little, and no potential degradation of environmentally sensitive areas by the future urban expansion under the Business As Usual, Adjusted Urban Land, and Regional Land Use Plan scenarios respectively. The methods and the baseline information provided, especially from the Adjusted Urban Land scenario showed the possibility of balancing the need for urban expansion and the protection of environmentally sensitive areas. This would be useful to improve the environmental sustainability of the Sub-Saharan African city-regions and across the Global South, where insufficient data availability challenges land use planning.Peer Reviewe

Policy change, land use, and agriculture: The case of soy production and cattle ranching in Brazil, 2001-2012

The Brazilian Amazon has experienced one of the world's highest deforestation rates in the last decades. Cattle ranching and soy expansion constitute the major drivers of deforestation, both through direct conversion and indirectly by land use displacement. However, deforestation rates decreased significantly after the implementation of the action plan to prevent and control deforestation in 2004. The aim of this study is to quantify the contribution of cattle and soy production with deforestation before and after the implementation of the action plan in the two states Mato Grosso and Par a along the BR-163. Specifically, we aim to empirically test for land use displacement processes from soy expansion in Mato Grosso to the deforestation frontier between 2001 and 2012. First, we calculated the relationships between deforestation rate and the change in cattle head and planted soy area respectively for the BR-163 region. Second, we estimated different panel regression models to test the association between processes of land use displacement. Our results indicate a close linkage between cattle ranching and deforestation along the BR-163 between 2001 and 2004. Soy expansion in Mato Grosso was significantly associated with deforestation during this period. However, these relations have diminished after the implementation of the action plan to control and prevent deforestation. With the decrease in deforestation rates in 2005, cattle ranching and deforestation were not directly linked, nor was soy expansion in Mato Grosso and deforestation at the forest frontier. Our analysis hence suggests that there was a close coupling of processes and spatial displacement until 2004 and a decoupling has taken place following the political interventions. These findings improve the understanding of land use displacement processes in Brazil and the methods offer potential for exploring similar processes in different regions of the world.Peer Reviewe

Land use change and land use displacement dynamics in Mato Grosso and Pará, Brazilian Amazon

Die Nachfrage nach Agrarerzeugnissen gilt als zentrale Ursache für den Verlust weltweit wichtiger Ökosysteme. In Brasilien hat speziell die Ausweitung der Sojaproduktion zur Abholzung tropischer Wälder und Savannen geführt. Zumeist werden neu gerodete Flächen als Rinderweiden genutzt und vormalige Weiden für den Sojaanbau umgewandelt. Diese Entwicklung führt zu der Annahme, dass die Ausweitung der Sojaproduktion indirekt für die Rodung verantwortlich ist. Staatliche Umweltpolitiken und die Selbstverpflichtung der Sojaindustrie haben seit 2004 zu einer Verringerung der Abholzung beigetragen. Vor diesem Hintergrund zielt die vorliegende Dissertation darauf ab, ein vertieftes Verständnis der Wechselwirkungen zwischen Soja- und Rinderwirtschaft zu erlangen. Im Fokus stehen räumliche und zeitliche Dynamiken von Landnutzung und Landnutzungsverdrängung in Mato Grosso und Pará, einer der dynamischsten Regionen Brasiliens. Für diese Bundesstaaten werden Landnutzung und Landnutzungsverdrängung im regionalen Kontext, auf Grundstücksebene und mithilfe von Szenarien untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Strategien zur Verringerung der Abholzung Einfluss auf die Dynamiken der Landnutzung und Landnutzungsverdrängung hatten. Die durch die Ausweitung des Sojaanbaus hervorgerufene Verdrängungsprozesse haben sich nach der Implementierung der Umweltschutzstrategien verringert. Auch die Abholzung auf einzelnen Grundstücken in Mato Grosso ging zurück. Zugleich zeigt die Analyse, dass die Selbstverpflichtung der Sojaindustrie durch indirekte Abholzung teilweise untergraben wird. Die Ergebnisse der Szenarien unterstreichen die regionale Dynamik und speziell die Risiken einer weiteren Ausweitung von Rinderweiden. Insgesamt legen die Ergebnisse nahe, dass auf Reduktion der Abholzung abzielende Strategien die Wechselwirkungen von Soja- und Rinderwirtschaft beachten müssen. Dies erfordert eine verstärkte Zusammenarbeit von Rinderwirtschaft, Sojaindustrie und staatlichen Organisationen.Demands for agricultural commodities are a major threat for some of the most valuable ecosystems in the world. The expansion of the agricultural sector in Brazil, fueled by global demands for soybeans, contributed to the loss of tropical and savanna ecosystems. However, most deforestation was caused by pastures, raising concerns about land use displacement processes between soybean expansion and cattle ranching. Promising, reductions of deforestation were observed following the implementation of governmental strategies and zero-deforestation supply chain commitments. This thesis aims to contribute to the understanding of spatial and temporal dynamics of soybean expansion and cattle ranching, driving deforestation in one of the most dynamic agricultural expansion and deforestation frontier of Brazil, in Mato Grosso and Pará. In this region, land use displacement describes the conversion of pasture to soybean followed by deforestation for cattle ranching at another location. This process was assessed at regional and property-level. Moreover, scenario analysis was applied to identify regional and subregional dynamics of land use changes. The results indicated that environmental governance affected regional and local land use dynamics and displacement processes. Distal displacement processes between soybean expansion and deforestation were significant, contributing to deforestation, but declined subsequently to the implementation of environmental policies. Likewise, deforestation at property-level declined following the policy implementations. However, the effectiveness of the zero-deforestation supply chain commitment was found to be at risk due to property-level displacement deforestation. Additionally, the scenario analysis emphasized the importance of subregional dynamics and identified risks of future deforestation. Integrating efforts between supply chain (soy and cattle) and governmental actors may be crucial to reduce deforestation in the Amazon

Leakage does not fully offset soy supply-chain efforts to reduce deforestation in Brazil.

Zero-deforestation supply chain policies that leverage the market power of commodity buyers to change agricultural producer behavior can reduce forest clearing in regions with rapid commodity expansion and weak forest governance. Yet leakage-when deforestation is pushed to other regions-may dilute the global effectiveness of regionally successful policies. Here we show that domestic leakage offsets 43-50% of the avoided deforestation induced by existing and proposed zero-deforestation supply chain policies in Brazil's soy sector. However, cross-border leakage is insignificant (<3%) because soybean production is displaced to existing U.S. farmland. Eliminating deforestation from the supply chains of all firms exporting Brazilian soy to the EU or China from 2011-2016 could have reduced net global deforestation by 2% and Brazilian deforestation by 9%. Thus, if major tropical commodity importers (e.g., the EU) require traders to eliminate deforestation from their supply chains, it could help bend the curve on global forest loss

Scenarios of land-use change in a deforestation corridor in the Brazilian Amazon: combining two scales of analysis

Local, regional, and global processes affect deforestation and land-use changes in the Brazilian Amazon. Characteristics are: direct conversions from forest to pasture; regional processes of indirect land-use change, described by the conversion of pastures to cropland, which increases the demand for pastures elsewhere; and teleconnections, fueled by the global demands for soybeans as animal fodder. We modeled land-use changes for two scenarios Trend and Sustainable Development for a hot spot of land-use change along the BR-163 highway in Mato Grosso and Para´, Brazil. We investigated the differences between a coupled modeling approach, which incorporates indirect land-use change processes, and a noncoupled landuse model. We coupled the regional-scale LandSHIFT model, defined for Mato Grosso and Para´, with a subregional model, alucR, covering a selected corridor along the BR-163. The results indicated distinct land-use scenario outcomes from the coupled modeling approach and the subregional model quantification. We found the highest deforestation estimates returned from the subregional quantification of the Trend scenario. This originated from the strong local dynamics of past deforestation and landuse changes. Land-use changes exceeded the demands estimated at regional scale. We observed the lowest deforestation estimates at the subregional quantification of the Sustainable Development story line. We highlight that model coupling increased the representation of scenario outcomes at fine resolution while providing consistency across scales. However, distinct local dynamics were explicitly captured at subregional scale. The scenario result pinpoints the importance of policies to aim at the cattle ranching sector, to increase land tenure registration and enforcement of environmental laws.Peer Reviewe

Gaps in adoption and implementation limit the current and potential effectiveness of zero-deforestation supply chain policies for soy

Tropical deforestation continues despite global efforts to curb forest loss. Corporate zero-deforestation supply chain commitments (ZDCs) have the potential to address this deforestation, especially if strong state-led forest governance is absent. Yet, because ZDC adoption is limited to particular locations and supply chains, these commitments may fall short at reducing regional deforestation and protecting biodiverse ecosystems. Here, we leverage timeseries of spatially explicit corporate commodity sourcing data and ZDCs to assess the current and potential effect of ZDCs within soybean supply chains on forest loss and biodiversity. We focus on the Brazilian Amazon, where the first ZDC (soy moratorium (SoyM)) was implemented, and the Cerrado, where companies have adopted but not implemented ZDCs. We found that in the Amazon, SoyM signatories that controlled the market caused a 57% reduction in direct deforestation for soy from 2006 to 2015. In the Cerrado, if companies had implemented their ZDCs with the same relative effectiveness as in the Amazon, deforestation for soy could have been reduced by 46%. Thus, ZDC implementation in the Cerrado via stringent monitoring and enforcement could contribute substantially to forest and habitat conservation. Yet, incomplete ZDC adoption leaves >50% of soy-suitable forests and the biodiversity that they harbor outside the reach of ZDCs. To protect these forests, it is vital to incentivize more companies-including smaller, less publicly exposed traders-to make and implement ZDCs, while also promoting forest governance through public policy.ISSN:1748-9326ISSN:1748-931