Vulnerability to climate change of managed stocks in the California Current large marine ecosystem

Introduction: Understanding how abundance, productivity and distribution of individual species may respond to climate change is a critical first step towards anticipating alterations in marine ecosystem structure and function, as well as developing strategies to adapt to the full range of potential changes. Methods: This study applies the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Fisheries Climate Vulnerability Assessment method to 64 federally-managed species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem to assess their vulnerability to climate change, where vulnerability is a function of a species’ exposure to environmental change and its biological sensitivity to a set of environmental conditions, which includes components of its resiliency and adaptive capacity to respond to these new conditions. Results: Overall, two-thirds of the species were judged to have Moderate or greater vulnerability to climate change, and only one species was anticipated to have a positive response. Species classified as Highly or Very Highly vulnerable share one or more characteristics including: 1) having complex life histories that utilize a wide range of freshwater and marine habitats; 2) having habitat specialization, particularly for areas that are likely to experience increased hypoxia; 3) having long lifespans and low population growth rates; and/or 4) being of high commercial value combined with impacts from non-climate stressors such as anthropogenic habitat degradation. Species with Low or Moderate vulnerability are either habitat generalists, occupy deep-water habitats or are highly mobile and likely to shift their ranges. Discussion: As climate-related changes intensify, this work provides key information for both scientists and managers as they address the long-term sustainability of fisheries in the region. This information can inform near-term advice for prioritizing species-level data collection and research on climate impacts, help managers to determine when and where a precautionary approach might be warranted, in harvest or other management decisions, and help identify habitats or life history stages that might be especially effective to protect or restore

A new way to visualize and report structural and data uncertainty in stock assessments

We present a visual and tabular representation of fisheries stock assessment model outputs to rapidly examine and effectively communicate sensitivity analysis results from numerous alternative model comparisons. This approach uses multiple output metrics to identify which alternative stock assessment model configurations relative to the reference model deserve further attention when quantifying intermodel uncertainty. An accompanying table of likelihood components, parameters, and model-derived quantities highlights where major changes exist compared with the reference model. The general method is applicable to any stock assessment and should aid in model behavior diagnosis and communicating uncertainty to managers. Specific examples and code are provided for the Stock Synthesis modelling framework.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author

Workshop on Tools and Development of Stock Assessment Models using a4a and Stock Synthesis (WKTADSA).

The ICES/ IOC Working Group on Harmful Algal Bloom Dynamics (WGHABD), co-sponsored by the International Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO Intergovernmental Panel for Harmful Algal Blooms (IPHAB), looks at the dynamics of harmful algal blooms (HABs). HABs continue to impact the ICES area and delegates presented national reports of HABs and their impacts, including widespread closures of shellfish harvesting areas across the ICES area due to levels of shellfish toxins exceeding regulatory thresholds, marine mammal and fish mor-talities, brown tides, human illness due to ciguatera poisoning (CP) and beach closures due to cyanobacteria blooms. Closures of shellfish harvesting areas were also enforced due to levels of Tetrodotoxin exceeding regulatory thresholds in the Netherlands. A range of ‘new findings’ re-lating to HABs were presented including developments in satellite imagery of HABs, molecular methods, impacts of viruses on cyanobacteria, oomycete parasites of diatoms, records of Ostre-opsis cf. siamensis in the Bay of Biscay and interpretation of shellfish toxin monitoring data. The ecology of selected HAB groups were reviewed including CP producing species Gambierdis-cus and Fukuyoa, Arctic HAB species and fish killing algae. CP continues to present a health risk in the Canary Islands and annual updates of developments in investigating CP and its causative organisms were presented. The role of HABs in the assessment of ‘Good Environmental Status’ for the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive were reviewed. New methodologies and their utilisation were also discussed and outcomes of a CoClime qPCR workshop, presented. WGHABD main focus was the updating of the IOC-ICES-PICES Harmful Algal Event Database, production of text for an ICES Harmful Algal Event Status Report and contributions towards the IOC Global HAB Status report (GHSR). HAEDAT data was updated and graphical products de-veloped. HAEDAT data from the ICES area has contributed to an additional seven presentations at conferences and one book chapter. Five manuscripts have been submitted to the scientific journal Harmful Algae analysing HAEDAT data from the ICES area and delegates from WGH-ABD are co-authors on a global synthesis paper for the GHSR. HAEDAT maps were provided as example outputs developed by ICES and IOC at the UN Decade of Ocean Science North At-lantic Workshop. These maps were highlighted during the Workshop general summary as a template for compiling and integrating various HAB and other data to deliver products to a broader user community such as hazard maps and potential risk for early warning systems (EWS). Throughout 2018–2020 WGHABD continued to report to the IOC Intergovernmental Panel for Harmful Algal Blooms and represent ICES on the IOC SCOR GlobalHAB Scientific Steering Committee