Trade in raw materials and economic development

This thesis considers three cases in which trade in natural resources and other raw materials can inform us about wider questions of economic development. The first chapter, “Capturing the Value Chain: The Persistence of Trade Policy in China After WTO Accession”, considers whether in the GATT/WTO era, developing countries are still able to actively conduct trade policy. In this study, I show that after China’s entry into WTO, required import tariff reductions on downstream sectors have been partly offset by an alternative policy with similar effects: export restrictions on raw materials. I also find that larger rises in Chinese raw materials export taxes after WTO accession have been associated with greater downstream export growth. The second chapter, “Winners and Losers from a Commodities-for-Manufactures Trade Boom”, examines two contrasting outcomes of the ‘de-industrialization’ associated with rising trade between China and other developing countries. In particular, this chapter compares changes in labour market outcomes in Brazilian regions stimulated by rising demand from China for raw materials, with Brazilian regions whose manufacturing sectors have been harmed by Chinese import competition. While there was slower growth in manufacturing wages and greater rises in local wage inequality in ‘loser’ regions between 2000 and 2010, ‘winner’ regions experienced higher wage growth, lower takeup of cash transfers and positive effects on job quality. The third chapter,“Access to Raw Materials and Local Comparative Advantage: The Effects of India’s Freight Equalization Policy”, considers the importance of access to raw materials for industrial development. It does so by looking at the effects of a Indian policy that aimed to remove regional comparative advantages associated with proximity to raw materials, by equalizing prices of steel across India. The results suggest that in practice, this policy may have had only a limited effect on access to raw materials across Indian states

Winners and losers from a commodities-for-manufactures trade boom

A recent boom in commodities-for-manufactures trade between China and other developing countries has led to much concern about the losers from rising import competition in manufacturing, but little attention on the winners from growing Chinese demand for commodities. Using census data for Brazil, we find that local labour markets more affected by Chinese import competition experienced slower growth in manufacturing wages and in-migration rates between 2000 and 2010, and greater rises in local wage inequality. However, in locations benefiting from rising Chinese demand, we observe higher wage growth, lower takeup of cash transfers and positive effects on job quality

On target? Sanctions and the economic interests of elite policymakers in Iran

How successful are sanctions at targeting the economic interests of political elites in affected countries? We study the case of Iran, using information on the stock exchange listed assets of two specific political entities with significant influence over the direction of Iran’s nuclear program. Our identification strategy focuses on the process of negotiations for sanctions removal, examining which interests benefit most from news about diplomatic progress. The results indicate the ‘bluntness’ of sanctions on Iran, but also provide evidence of their effectiveness in generating substantial economic incentives for elite policymakers to negotiate a deal for sanctions relief

Genetic and other factors determining mannose-binding lectin levels in American Indians: the Strong Heart Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mannose-binding lectin (MBL) forms an integral part of the innate immune system. Persistent, subclinical infections and chronic inflammatory states are hypothesized to contribute to the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis. MBL gene (<it>MBL2</it>) variants with between 12 to 25% allele frequency in Caucasian and other populations, result in markedly reduced expression of functional protein. Prospective epidemiologic studies, including a nested, case-control study from the present population, have demonstrated the ability of <it>MBL2 </it>genotypes to predict complications of atherosclerosis,. The genetic control of <it>MBL2 </it>expression is complex and genetic background effects in specific populations are largely unknown.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Strong Heart Study is a longitudinal, cohort study of cardiovascular disease among American Indians. A subset of individuals genotyped for the above mentioned case-control study were selected for analysis of circulating MBL levels by double sandwich ELISA method. Mean MBL levels were compared between genotypic groups and multivariate regression was used to determine other independent factors influencing <it>MBL2 </it>expression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our results confirm the effects of variant structural (B, C, and D) and promoter (H and Y) alleles that have been seen in other populations. In addition, MBL levels were found to be positively associated with male gender and hemoglobin A1c levels, but inversely related to triglyceride levels. Correlation was not found between MBL and other markers of inflammation.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>New data is presented concerning the effects of known genetic variants on MBL levels in an American Indian population, as well as the relationship of <it>MBL2 </it>expression to clinical and environmental factors, including inflammatory markers.</p

Retrospective evaluation of whole exome and genome mutation calls in 746 cancer samples

Funder: NCI U24CA211006Abstract: The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) curated consensus somatic mutation calls using whole exome sequencing (WES) and whole genome sequencing (WGS), respectively. Here, as part of the ICGC/TCGA Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium, which aggregated whole genome sequencing data from 2,658 cancers across 38 tumour types, we compare WES and WGS side-by-side from 746 TCGA samples, finding that ~80% of mutations overlap in covered exonic regions. We estimate that low variant allele fraction (VAF < 15%) and clonal heterogeneity contribute up to 68% of private WGS mutations and 71% of private WES mutations. We observe that ~30% of private WGS mutations trace to mutations identified by a single variant caller in WES consensus efforts. WGS captures both ~50% more variation in exonic regions and un-observed mutations in loci with variable GC-content. Together, our analysis highlights technological divergences between two reproducible somatic variant detection efforts

On target? The incidence of sanctions across listed firms in Iran

How successful are sanctions at targeting the economic interests of political elites in affected countries? We study the efficacy of targeting in the case of Iran, using information on the stock exchange-listed assets of two specific political entities with substantial influence over the direction of Iran’s nuclear program. Our identification strategy focuses on the process of negotiations for sanctions removal, examining which interests benefit most from news about diplomatic progress. We find that the stock returns of firms owned by targeted political elites respond especially sharply to such news, though other listed firms unconnected to these elites also benefit from progress towards sanctions relief. These results indicate the ‘bluntness’ of sanctions on Iran, but also provide evidence of their effectiveness in generating economic incentives for elite policymakers to negotiate a deal for sanctions relief

Sanctions and the targeting of ‘elite’ interests: the effectiveness of targeting in the case of Iran

The targeting of elite interests has been at the centre of recent sanctions policies, and will be a major strategic concern as the world responds to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Mirko Draca, Jason Garred, and Nele Warrinnier look at the effectiveness of targeting in the case of Iran during the 2010s. They find that political elites within Iran faced a tangible economic incentive to negotiate the removal of sanctions

On target? Sanctions and the economic interests of elite policymakers in Iran

How successful are sanctions at targeting the economic interests of political elites in affected countries? We study the case of Iran, using information on the stock exchange listed assets of two specific political entities with significant influence over the direction of Iran’s nuclear program. Our identification strategy focuses on the process of negotiations for sanctions removal, examining which interests benefit most from news about diplomatic progress. The results indicate the ‘bluntness’ of sanctions on Iran, but also provide evidence of their effectiveness in generating substantial economic incentives for elite policymakers to negotiate a deal for sanctions relief

On target? The incidence of sanctions across listed firms in Iran

How successful are sanctions at targeting the economic interests of political elites in affected countries? We study the e fficacy of targeting in the case of Iran, using information on the stock exchange-listed assets of two specific political entities with substantial influence over the direction of Iran's nuclear program. Our identification strategy focuses on the process of negotiations for sanctions removal, examining which interests benefit most from news about diplomatic progress. We find that the stock returns of firms owned by targeted political elites respond especially sharply to such news, though other listed firms unconnected to these elites also benefit from progress towards sanctions relief. These results indicate the `bluntness' of sanctions on Iran, but also provide evidence of their effectiveness in generating economic incentives for elite policymakers to negotiate a deal for sanctions relief.status: publishe