Depopulation As A Policy Challenge In The Context Of Global Demographic Trends

Depopulation is a recurring theme, but its contemporary causes tell a new story. Population decline today is the partial result of a natural development process. A smaller population does not have to be the defining factor of a country in economic or geopolitical considerations. A population’s composition is more consequential than simply its size. This report addresses depopulation from a multi-dimensional demographic perspective, not only looking at population size and age structure, but also differentiating by level of education and labor force participation

International Differences in Longevity and Health and Their Economic Consequences

In 1975, 50 year-old Americans could expect to live slightly longer than their European counterparts. By 2005, American life expectancy at that age has diverged substantially compared to Europe. We find that this growing longevity gap is primarily the symptom of real declines in the health of near-elderly Americans, relative to their European peers. In particular, we use a microsimulation approach to project what US longevity would look like, if US health trends approximated those in Europe. We find that differences in health can explain most of the growing gap in remaining life expectancy. In addition, we quantify the public finance consequences of this deterioration in health. The model predicts that gradually moving American cohorts to the health status enjoyed by Europeans could save up to $1.1 trillion in discounted total health expenditures from 2004 to 2050.disability, mortality, international comparisons, microsimulation

Understanding the Economic Consequences of Shifting Trends in Population Health

The public economic burden of shifting trends in population health remains uncertain. Sustained increases in obesity, diabetes, and other diseases could reduce life expectancy − with a concomitant decrease in the public-sector's annuity burden − but these savings may be offset by worsening functional status, which increases health care spending, reduces labor supply, and increases public assistance. Using a microsimulation approach, we quantify the competing public-finance consequences of shifting trends in population health for medical care costs, labor supply, earnings, wealth, tax revenues, and government expenditures (including Social Security and income assistance). Together, the reduction in smoking and the rise in obesity have increased net public-sector liabilities by $430bn, or approximately 4% of the current debt burden. Larger effects are observed for specific public programs: annual spending is 10% higher in the Medicaid program, and 7% higher for Medicare.disability, health care costs, social security, microsimulation

Human capital futures in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus amid aging, depopulation, and high skilled emigration

Eastern Europe is a demographic frontrunner among late-stage Demographic Transition societies. The feared consequences of its aging, brain drain, and depopulation have drawn major political attention in the region. To assess the inevitability of such trends, a new multi-dimensional demographic model projects the populations of Armenia, Georgia, North Macedonia, Romania, and Ukraine. A range of futures beyond a baseline scenario were investigated, reflecting emigration intentions and desired fertility. Findings suggest that from 2020 to 2050 the five populations would decline by 5%-36% and the proportion aged 65+ would increase by 48%-99%, but concurrently see a 7%-49% relative rise in skilled human capital (vocational or tertiary education) among those aged 20-64. Depending on whether policy succeeds in helping people achieve their desired fertility or lowering brain drain pressures, these potential outcomes can become considerably more moderate or magnified

Migration and demographic disparities in macro-regions of the European Union, a view to 2060

Background: Migration has become one of the most salient policy areas in the European Union. In response, the European Commission established a research team with the task of investigating a range of possible demographic futures. Objective: This paper explores the demographic effects of migration on eastern, southern, and western EU regions, using different scenarios to see the extent population size, working-age population, education composition, and total age dependency can be influenced. Methods: We use a deterministic cohort-component projection model that (a) incorporates improving levels of educational attainment in the population and (b) explicit consideration of migration between EU member states (MS) and migration between EU MS and the rest of the world. Eight stylised what-if scenarios are developed around a medium assumption projection. Results: Although migration can have a large effect on total and working-age population size, the EU population will continue to age and see a rise in age dependency regardless. Despite depopulation occurring in many eastern MS, the region is and should remain in a better position than the south and on par with the west in terms of age dependency. Conclusions: While both the south and east provide large demographic subsidies of working-age people to the EU’s west, the south is less prepared to cope with the losses due to an already older population, lower labour force participation, and lower education levels. Contribution: We report demographic consequences of contrasting migration scenarios for the EU-28 (now EU+UK) based on multidimensional projections by age, sex, and educational attainment

Global Demography Expert Survey on the Drivers and Consequences of Demographic Change

Insight into the future of the world population is key for policy planning. At present, several organisations engage in developing global long-term population projections and provide varied results in terms of projected population size and structures. This diversity demonstrates that there is a need to reflect on the ingredients that feed into the projections. For this reason, the JRC, IIASA and the UN Population Division launched a survey where experts were asked to assess the validity and relevance of alternative arguments about the forces that could shape future fertility, mortality, and migration trends in the country of their choice. The results of the survey highlight that experts almost unanimously support the roles played by urbanisation, reductions in child mortality, greater educational attainment, and employment opportunities for women in decreasing fertility in high fertility countries. At the same time, life expectancy is expected to continue increasing across world regions, with the most significant improvements projected by experts in current 'low mortality' countries. Experts on migration mostly agree that climate change will lead to a rise in immigration. However, there is less agreement on the forces driving emigration. As a broad conclusion, the expert opinions seem to indicate that demographic challenges of the future do not necessarily have demographic solutions, and will instead necessitate improved adaptive capacities among all societies

Fucking failures: The future of fat sex

In the context of the obesity ‘epidemic’ fat people’s sex lives are cast as sterile, sexually dysfunctional or just plain non-existent. This article analyzes medical discourses of obesity and sex in order to argue that fat sex is constructed as a type of failure. Using insights from antisocial queer theory, fat sex is further shown to be queer in its failure to adhere to the specifically heteronormative dictates of what Edelman (2004) calls ‘reproductive futurism’. The analysis finally engages with Halberstam’s (2011) notion of queer failure to demonstrate how deconstructing notions of success and failure might offer fat political projects new ways to imagine the future of fat sex

Temporal spatial and metabolic measures of walking in highly functional individuals with lower limb amputations

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this descriptive exploratory study is to record the temporal spatial parameters and metabolic energy expenditure during walking of individuals with amputation, walking with advanced prostheses and following completion of comprehensive rehabilitation, to able-bodied controls. DESIGN: Cross-sectional SETTING: Multi-disciplinary comprehensive rehabilitation centre PARTICIPANTS: Thirty severely injured United Kingdom military personnel with amputation and subsequent completion of their rehabilitation programme (10 unilateral trans-tibial, 10 unilateral trans-femoral, and 10 bilateral trans-femoral) were compared to (and of similar age, height and mass (p < 0.537) as) 10 able-bodied controls. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable Main Outcomes and Measures: Temporal spatial and metabolic energy expenditure data were captured during walking on level ground at self-selected speed. RESULTS: The individuals with amputation were all male, with a mean age 29 years (SD = 4) and mean New Injury Severity Score of 31 (SD = 16). Walking speed, stride length, step length and cadence of individuals with a unilateral trans-tibial or trans-femoral amputation was comparable to controls, and only for individuals with a bilateral trans-femoral amputation was walking speed significantly slower (1·12m/s, p = 0.025) and cadence reduced (96 steps/min, p = 0.026). Oxygen cost for individuals with a unilateral trans-tibial amputation (0·15 ml/kg/m) was the same as for controls (0·15 ml/kg/m), and significantly increased by 20% (0·18ml/kg/m, p = 0.023) for unilateral trans-femoral and by 60% (0·24 ml/kg/m, p < 0.001) for bilateral trans-femoral individuals with amputation. CONCLUSION: The scientific literature reports a wide range of gait and metabolic energy expenditure across individuals with amputation. The results of this study indicate that the individuals with amputation have a gait pattern which is highly functional and efficient. This is comparable to a small number of studies reporting similar outcomes for individuals with a unilateral trans-tibial amputation, but the results from this study are better than those on individuals with trans-femoral amputations reported elsewhere, despite comparison with populations wearing similar prosthetic componentry. Those studies that do report similar outcomes have included individuals who have been provided with a comprehensive rehabilitation programme. This suggests that such a programme may be as important as, or even more important than, prosthetic component selection in improving metabolic energy expenditure. The data are made available as a benchmark for what is achievable in the rehabilitation of some individuals with amputations, but agreeably may not be possible for all amputees to achieve

Abundance, behavior, and movement patterns of western gray whales in relation to a 3-D seismic survey, Northeast Sakhalin Island, Russia

A geophysical seismic survey was conducted in the summer of 2001 off the northeastern coast of Sakhalin Island, Russia. The area of seismic exploration was immediately adjacent to the Piltun feeding grounds of the endangered western gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus). This study investigates relative abundance, behavior, and movement patterns of gray whales in relation to occurrence and proximity to the seismic survey by employing scan sampling, focal follow, and theodolite tracking methodologies. These data were analyzed in relation to temporal, environmental, and seismic related variables to evaluate potential disturbance reactions of gray whales to the seismic survey. The relative numbers of whales and pods recorded from five shore-based stations were not significantly different during periods when seismic surveys were occurring compared to periods when no seismic surveys were occurring and to the post-seismic period. Univariate analyses indicated no significant statistical correlation between seismic survey variables and any of the eleven movement and behavior variables. Multiple regression analyses indicated that, after accounting for temporal and environmental variables, 6 of 11 movement and behavior variables (linearity, acceleration, mean direction, blows per surfacing, and surface-dive blow rate) were not significantly associated with seismic survey variables, and 5 of 11 variables (leg speed, reorientation rate, distance-from-shore, blow interval, and dive time) were significantly associated with seismic survey variables. In summary, after accounting for environmental variables, no correlation was found between seismic survey variables and the linearity of whale movements, changes in whale swimming speed between theodolite fixes, mean direction of whale movement, mean number of whale exhalations per minute at the surface, mean time at the surface, and mean number of exhalations per minute during a whales surface-to-dive cycle. In contrast, at higher received sound energy exposure levels, whales traveled faster, changed directions of movement less, were recorded further from shore, and stayed under water longer between respirations