This is what the US leading indicators lead

We propose an optimal filter to transform the Conference Board Composite Leading Index (CLI) into recession probabilities in the US economy. We also analyze the CLI's accuracy at anticipating US output growth. We compare the predictive performance of linear, VAR extensions of smooth transition regression and switching regimes, probit, nonparametric models and conclude that a combination of the switching regimes and nonparametric forecasts is the best strategy at predicting both the NBER business cycle schedule and GDP growth. This confirms the usefulness of CLI, even in a real-time analysis. JEL Classification: C32, C53leading indicators, optimal forecasting rule, turning points

A Conversation: The Positive Correlation Between Crime Rate and Poverty Rate

My paper is about the topic that there is a positive correlation between the poverty rate and the crime rate. In my research to further understand this correlation I have conducted two separate interviews with two of my colleagues, the interviews being a year apart. The interviews serve the purpose of not only understanding their views towards criminology but also enhancing my understanding of the three different ideologies in accordance with Hugh D. Barlow’s book, Explaining Crime: A Primer in Criminological Theory. In the first set of interviews, I attempt to identify their criminal ideology whether that is liberal, conservative, or critical. I further note the level of analysis they use to come to their conclusions as well as make connections to the theories that are presented in the three different criminal ideologies. Lastly, in the second set of interviews, I observe whether or not they have changed their views on criminal ideology, as well as, resisting some of the arguments they made in the previous interview. &nbsp

Are the High-growth Recovery Periods Over?

We present evidence about the loss of the so-called ?plucking effect?, that is, a high-growth phase of the cycle typically observed at the end of recessions. This result matches the popular belief, presented informally by different authors, that the current recession will have permanent effects, or that the current recession will have an L shape versus the old-time recessions that have always had a V shape. Furthermore, we show that the loss of the ?plucking effect? can explain part of the Great Moderation. We postulate that these two phenomena may be due to changes in inventory management brought about by improvements in information and communications technologies.Business cycle characteristics, Great Moderation, High-growth recovery

This is what the US leading indicators lead

We propose an optimal filter to transform the Conference Board Composite Leading Index (CLI) into recession probabilities in the US economy. We also analyze the CLI's accuracy at anticipating US output growth. We compare the predictive performance of linear, VAR extensions of smooth transition regression and switching regimes, probit, nonparametric models and conclude that a combination of the switching regimes and nonparametric forecasts is the best strategy at predicting both the NBER business cycle schedule and GDP growth. This confirms the usefulness of CLI, even in a real-time analysis

Introducing the EURO-STING : sort term indicator of euro area growth

We propose a model to compute short-term forecasts of the Euro area GDP growth in real-time. To allow for forecast evaluation, we construct a real-time data set that changes for each vintage date and includes the exact information that was available at the time of each forecast. In this context, we provide examples that show how data revisions and data availability affect point forecasts and forecast uncertaint

Do european business cycles look like one _?\_?

This paper analyzes if each European country presents business cycles that are similar enough to validate what some authors call the European cycle. Contrary to the majority of papers on business cycles, we concentrate on the appearance of the cycle, not on the synchronization. We provide a robust methodology for dating and characterizing business cycles and their phases and adopt the model-based cluster analysis to test the existence of an unique cluster (a common cycle) against more than one. We nd evidence against a common cycle. Finally, we nd no clear relation between similarities in business cycle appearance and synchronization across countries.

Ñ-STING : España short term indicator of growth

We develop a dynamic factor model to compute short term forecasts of the Spanish GDP growth in real time. With this model, we compute a business cycle index which works well as an indicator of the business cycle conditions in Spain. To examine its real time forecasting accuracy, we use real-time data vintages from 2008.02 through 2009.01. We conclude that the model exhibits good forecasting performance in anticipating the recent and sudden downtur

Jump-and-rest effect of U.S. business cycles

One of the most extended empirical stylized facts about output dynamics in the United States is the positive autocorrelation of output growth. This paper shows that the positive autocorrelation can be better captured by shifts between business cycle states rather than by the standard view of autoregressive coefficients. This result is extremely robust to different nonlinear alternative models and also applies not only to output but to the most relevant macroeconomic variables.[resumen de autor

Effectiveness, implementation, and monitoring variables of intermittent hypoxic bicycle training in patients recovered from COVID-19: The AEROBICOVID study

Hypoxic exposure is safely associated with exercise for many pathological conditions, providing additional effects on health outcomes. COVID-19 is a new disease, so the physiological repercussions caused by exercise in affected patients and the safety of exposure to hypoxia in these conditions are still unknown. Due to the effects of the disease on the respiratory system and following the sequence of AEROBICOVID research work, this study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness, tolerance and acute safety of 24 bicycle training sessions performed under intermittent hypoxic conditions through analysis of peripheral oxyhemoglobin saturation (SpO2), heart rate (HR), rate of perceived exertion (RPE), blood lactate concentration ([La−]) and symptoms of acute mountain sickness in patients recovered from COVID-19. Participants were allocated to three training groups: the normoxia group (GN) remained in normoxia (inspired fraction of O2 (FiO2) of ~20.9%, a city with 526m altitude) for the entire session; the recovery hypoxia group (GHR) was exposed to hypoxia (FiO2 ~13.5%, corresponding to 3,000m altitude) all the time except during the effort; the hypoxia group (GH) trained in hypoxia (FiO2 ~13.5%) throughout the session. The altitude simulation effectively reduced SpO2 mean with significant differences between groups GN, GHR, andGH, being 96.9(1.6), 95.1(3.1), and 87.7(6.5), respectively. Additionally, the proposed exercise and hypoxic stimuluswaswell-tolerated, since 93% of participants showed no or moderate acutemountain sickness symptoms; maintained nearly 80% of sets at target heart rate; andmost frequently reporting session intensity as an RPE of “3” (moderate). The internal load calculation, analyzed through training impulse (TRIMP), calculated using HR [TRIMPHR = HR * training volume (min)] and RPE [TRIMPRPE = RPE * training volume (min)], showed no significant difference between groups. The current strategy effectively promoted the altitude simulation and monitoring variables, being well-tolerated and safely acute exposure, as the low Lake Louise scores and the stable HR, SpO2, and RPE values showed during the sessions.'USP Vida' Project from USP 3518/2020Integrated Research Projects in Strategic Areas from USP PIPAE 2021.1.10424.1.9PDU EFISAL - Universidad de la Republica 003051-000603-1

Investigación de compositores bolivianos

Anais do V Encontro de Iniciação Científica e I Encontro Anual de Iniciação ao Desenvolvimento Tecnológico e Inovação – EICTI 2016 - 05 e 07 de outubro de 2016 – Sessão Linguística, Letras e ArtesEn la siguiente investigación se estudia el desarrollo de distintitos aspectos de interrelación entre lo armónico, melódico y textural a lo largo de la obra Mística n° 9 mov. IV (2005) del compositor boliviano Alberto Villalpando (1940). Mostrando como América Latina a partir del Siglo XIX sufrió varios cambios y adopto distintos lenguajes y tendencias musicales de Europa para el desarrollo de la música latinoamericana de concierto, en la cual, los compositores no dejaron de lado la identidad cultural, geográfica e idiomática de cada región, en este caso Bolivia como centralidad de nuestro trabajo. Para lograr nuestro objetivo utilizaremos distintos métodos analíticos, como la teoría de los conjuntos, análisis textural, teoría de géneros armónicos, tomando en cuenta la fase composicional de A. Villalpando (1940) que comprendería a la escritura de la obra, la definición y presencia de los conceptos como "Mística", "Telúrico" e "Intimismo", presentes en la obra, y como esta dialoga a través de la Geografía que suena propuesta por el propio compositor a Analizar. El siguiente trabajo busca aportar distintas metodologías para el estudio analítico de obras de concierto bolivianas a partir del siglo XX. Demostrando las particularidades tanto en la escrita como en la identidad de Alberto Villalpando, siendo estas representadas a través de su música, para contribuir al estudio de compositores latinoamericanos de música de concierto