Risk prediction models with incomplete data with application to prediction of estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: prospective data from the Nurses' Health Study

Introduction A number of breast cancer risk prediction models have been developed to provide insight into a woman\u27s individual breast cancer risk. Although circulating levels of estradiol in postmenopausal women predict subsequent breast cancer risk, whether the addition of estradiol levels adds significantly to a model\u27s predictive power has not previously been evaluated. Methods Using linear regression, the authors developed an imputed estradiol score using measured estradiol levels (the outcome) and both case status and risk factor data (for example, body mass index) from a nested case-control study conducted within a large prospective cohort study and used multiple imputation methods to develop an overall risk model including both risk factor data from the main cohort and estradiol levels from the nested case-control study. Results The authors evaluated the addition of imputed estradiol level to the previously published Rosner and Colditz log-incidence model for breast cancer risk prediction within the larger Nurses\u27 Health Study cohort. The follow-up was from 1980 to 2000; during this time, 1,559 invasive estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer cases were confirmed. The addition of imputed estradiol levels significantly improved risk prediction; the age-specific concordance statistic increased from 0.635 ± 0.007 to 0.645 ± 0.007 (P \u3c 0.001) after the addition of imputed estradiol. Conclusion Circulating estradiol levels in postmenopausal women appear to add to other lifestyle factors in predicting a woman\u27s individual risk of breast cancer

Breast cancer susceptibility loci and mammographic density

Introduction Recently, the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) conducted a multi-stage genome-wide association study and identified 11 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with breast cancer risk. Given the high degree of heritability of mammographic density and its strong association with breast cancer, it was hypothesised that breast cancer susceptibility loci may also be associated with breast density and provide insight into the biology of breast density and how it influences breast cancer risk. Methods We conducted an analysis in the Nurses\u27 Health Study (n = 1121) to assess the relation between 11 breast cancer susceptibility loci and mammographic density. At the time of their mammogram, 217 women were premenopausal and 904 women were postmenopausal. We used generalised linear models adjusted for covariates to determine the mean percentage of breast density according to genotype. Results Overall, no association between the 11 breast cancer susceptibility loci and mammographic density was seen. Among the premenopausal women, three SNPs (rs12443621 [TNRc9/LOC643714], rs3817198 [lymphocyte-specific protein-1] and rs4666451) were marginally associated with mammographic density (p \u3c 0.10). All three of these SNPs showed an association that was consistent with the direction in which these alleles influence breast cancer risk. The difference in mean percentage mammographic density comparing homozygous wildtypes to homozygous variants ranged from 6.3 to 8.0%. None of the 11 breast cancer loci were associated with postmenopausal breast density. Conclusion Overall, breast cancer susceptibility loci identified through a genome-wide association study do not appear to be associated with breast cancer risk

Increased Matrix Metalloproteinase (MMPs) Levels Do Not Predict Disease Severity or Progression in Emphysema

Rationale: Though matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are critical in the pathogenesis of COPD, their utility as a disease biomarker remains uncertain. This study aimed to determine whether bronchoalveolar lavage (BALF) or plasma MMP measurements correlated with disease severity or functional decline in emphysema. Methods: Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and luminex assays measured MMP-1, -9, -12 and tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinase-1 in the BALF and plasma of non-smokers, smokers with normal lung function and moderate-to-severe emphysema subjects. In the cohort of 101 emphysema subjects correlative analyses were done to determine if MMP or TIMP-1 levels were associated with key disease parameters or change in lung function over an 18-month time period. Main Results: Compared to non-smoking controls, MMP and TIMP-1 BALF levels were significantly elevated in the emphysema cohort. Though MMP-1 was elevated in both the normal smoker and emphysema groups, collagenase activity was only increased in the emphysema subjects. In contrast to BALF, plasma MMP-9 and TIMP-1 levels were actually decreased in the emphysema cohort compared to the control groups. Both in the BALF and plasma, MMP and TIMP-1 measurements in the emphysema subjects did not correlate with important disease parameters and were not predictive of subsequent functional decline. Conclusions: MMPs are altered in the BALF and plasma of emphysema; however, the changes in MMPs correlate poorly with parameters of disease intensity or progression. Though MMPs are pivotal in the pathogenesis of COPD, these findings suggest that measuring MMPs will have limited utility as a prognostic marker in this disease. © 2013 D'Armiento et al

Risk factors for ductal and lobular breast cancer: results from the nurses' health study

Introduction Ductal and lobular carcinomas are the two most common types of invasive breast cancer. Whether well-established risk factors are differentially associated with risk on the basis of histologic subtype is not clear. We prospectively investigated the association between a number of hormonal and nonhormonal exposures and risk defined by histologic subtype among 4,655 ductal and 659 lobular cases of postmenopausal breast cancer from the Nurses\u27 Health Study. Methods Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression stratified by histologic subtype and time period was used to examine the association between risk factors and the incidence of ductal and lobular subtypes. For each exposure, we calculated the P value for heterogeneity using a likelihood ratio test comparing models with separate estimates for the two subtypes versus a single estimate across subtypes. Results The associations with age at menarche (P-heterogeneity (het) = 0.03), age at first birth (P-het \u3c 0.001) and postmenopausal hormone use (P-het \u3c 0.001) were more strongly associated with lobular cancers. The associations with age, nulliparity, parity, age at menopause, type of menopause, alcohol intake, adult body mass index (BMI), BMI at age 18, family history of breast cancer and personal history of benign breast disease did not vary by subtype (P-het ≥ 0.08). Results were similar when we restricted the analyses to estrogen receptor-positive and progesterone receptor-positive tumors. Conclusions These data indicate that breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease, and the differential association with a number of risk factors is suggestive of etiologically distinct tumors. Epidemiological analyses should continue to take into account a modifying role of histology

Differences in physical activity domains, guideline adherence, and weight history between metabolically healthy and metabolically abnormal obese adults: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Despite the accepted health consequences of obesity, emerging research suggests that a significant segment of adults with obesity are metabolically healthy (MHO). To date, MHO individuals have been shown to have higher levels of physical activity (PA), but little is known about the importance of PA domains or the influence of weight history compared to their metabolically abnormal (MAO) counterpart. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relationship between PA domains, PA guideline adherence, and weight history on MHO. METHODS: Pooled cycles of the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999–2006 (≥20 y; BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2); N = 2,753) and harmonized criteria for metabolic syndrome (MetS) were used. Participants were categorized as “inactive” (no reported PA), “somewhat active” (>0 to < 500 metabolic equivalent (MET) min/week), and “active” (PA guideline adherence, ≥ 500 MET min/week) according to each domain of PA (total, recreational, transportation and household). Logistic and multinomial regressions were modelled for MHO and analyses were adjusted for age, sex, education, ethnicity, income, smoking and alcohol intake. RESULTS: Compared to MAO, MHO participants were younger, had lower BMI, and were more likely to be classified as active according to their total and recreational PA level. Based on total PA levels, individuals who were active had a 70 % greater likelihood of having the MHO phenotype (OR = 1.70, 95 % CI: 1.19–2.43); however, once stratified by age (20–44 y; 45–59 y; and; ≥60 y), the association remained significant only amongst those aged 45–59 y. Although moderate and vigorous PA were inconsistently related to MHO following adjustment for covariates, losing ≥30 kg in the last 10 y and not gaining ≥10 kg since age 25 y were significant predictors of MHO phenotype for all PA domains, even if adherence to the PA guidelines were not met. CONCLUSION: Although PA is associated with MHO, the beneficial effects of PA may be moderated by longer-term changes in weight. Longitudinal analysis of physical activity and weight change trajectories are necessary to isolate the contribution of duration of obesity, PA behaviours, and longer-term outcomes amongst MHO individuals

Genome-Wide Association Study of Circulating Estradiol, Testosterone, and Sex Hormone-Binding Globulin in Postmenopausal Women

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have successfully identified common genetic variants that contribute to breast cancer risk. Discovering additional variants has become difficult, as power to detect variants of weaker effect with present sample sizes is limited. An alternative approach is to look for variants associated with quantitative traits that in turn affect disease risk. As exposure to high circulating estradiol and testosterone, and low sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) levels is implicated in breast cancer etiology, we conducted GWAS analyses of plasma estradiol, testosterone, and SHBG to identify new susceptibility alleles. Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility (CGEMS) data from the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS), and Sisters in Breast Cancer Screening data were used to carry out primary meta-analyses among ∼1600 postmenopausal women who were not taking postmenopausal hormones at blood draw. We observed a genome-wide significant association between SHBG levels and rs727428 (joint β = -0.126; joint P = 2.09×10–16), downstream of the SHBG gene. No genome-wide significant associations were observed with estradiol or testosterone levels. Among variants that were suggestively associated with estradiol (P<10–5), several were located at the CYP19A1 gene locus. Overall results were similar in secondary meta-analyses that included ∼900 NHS current postmenopausal hormone users. No variant associated with estradiol, testosterone, or SHBG at P<10–5 was associated with postmenopausal breast cancer risk among CGEMS participants. Our results suggest that the small magnitude of difference in hormone levels associated with common genetic variants is likely insufficient to detectably contribute to breast cancer risk

Nondense mammographic area and risk of breast cancer

Introduction The mechanisms underlying the strong association between percentage dense area on a mammogram and the risk of breast cancer are unknown. We investigated separately the absolute dense area and the absolute nondense area on mammograms in relation to breast cancer risk. Methods We conducted a nested case-control study on prediagnostic mammographic density measurements and risk of breast cancer in the Nurses\u27 Health Study and the Nurses\u27 Health Study II. Premenopausal mammograms were available from 464 cases and 998 controls, and postmenopausal mammograms were available from 960 cases and 1,662 controls. We used a computer-assisted thresholding technique to measure mammographic density, and we used unconditional logistic regression to calculate OR and 95% CI data. Results Higher absolute dense area was associated with a greater risk of breast cancer among premenopausal women (ORtertile 3 vs 1 = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.45 to 2.77) and among postmenopausal women (ORquintile 5 vs 1 = 2.19, 95% CI = 1.65 to 2.89). However, increasing absolute nondense area was associated with a decreased risk of breast cancer among premenopausal women (ORtertile 3 vs 1 = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.36 to 0.72) and among postmenopausal women (ORquintile 5 vs 1 = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.34 to 0.62). These associations changed minimally when we included both absolute dense area and absolute nondense area in the same statistical model. As expected, the percentage dense area was the strongest risk factor for breast cancer in both groups. Conclusions Our results indicate that absolute dense area is independently and positively associated with breast cancer risk, whereas absolute nondense area is independently and inversely associated with breast cancer risk. Since adipose tissue is radiographically nondense, these results suggest that adipose breast tissue may have a protective role in breast carcinogenesis

Ethnic differences in ovulatory function in nulliparous women

African-American women have a long-standing approximately 20% higher breast cancer incidence rate than USA White women under age 40 while rates among Latinas are lower than those of Whites. The reasons for this are not clear, however they may be due to ethnic differences in circulating oestradiol and progesterone levels. In a cross-sectional study, we investigated whether anovulation frequency and circulating serum oestradiol and/or progesterone levels vary among normally cycling nulliparous African-American (n=60), Latina (n=112) and non-Latina White (n=69) women. Blood and urine specimens were collected over two menstrual cycles among healthy 17- to 34-year-old women. Frequency of anovulation was greater among White women (nine out of 63, 14.3%) than African-American women (four out of 56, 7.1%) or Latina women (seven out of 102, 6.9%), although these differences were not statistically significant. African-American women had 9.9% (P=0.26) higher follicular phase oestradiol concentrations than Latina women and 17.4% (P=0.13) higher levels than White women. African-American women also had considerably higher levels of luteal phase oestradiol (vs Latinas, +9.4%, P=0.14; vs Whites, +25.3%, P=0.003) and progesterone (vs Latinas, +15.4%, P=0.07; vs Whites, +36.4%, P=0.002). Latina women were also observed to have higher follicular oestradiol, and luteal oestradiol and progesterone levels than White women (follicular oestradiol: +6.8%, P=0.48; luteal oestradiol: +14.6%, P=0.04; luteal progesterone: +18.2%, P=0.06). These results suggest that exposure to endogenous steroid hormones may be greater for young African-American and Latina women than for Whites

Common genetic variation in IGF1, IGFBP-1, and IGFBP-3 in relation to mammographic density: a cross-sectional study

INTRODUCTION: Mammographic density is one of the strongest risk factors for breast cancer and is believed to represent epithelial and stromal proliferation. Because of the high heritability of breast density, and the role of the insulin-like growth factor (IGF) pathway in cellular proliferation and breast development, we examined the association between common genetic variation in this pathway and mammographic density. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis among controls (n = 1,121) who were between the ages of 42 and 78 years at mammography, from a breast cancer case-control study nested within the Nurses' Health Study cohort. At the time of mammography, 204 women were premenopausal and 917 were postmenopausal. We genotyped 29 haplotype-tagging SNPs demonstrated to capture common genetic variation in IGF1, IGF binding protein (IGFBP)-1, and IGFBP-3. RESULTS: Common haplotype patterns in three of the four haplotype blocks spanning the gene encoding IGF1 were associated with mammographic density. Haplotype patterns in block 1 (p = 0.03), block 3 (p = 0.009), and block 4 (p = 0.007) were associated with mammographic density, whereas those in block 2 were not. None of the common haplotypes in the three haplotype blocks spanning the genes encoding IGFBP-1/IGFBP-3 were significantly associated with mammographic density. Two haplotype-tagging SNPs in IGF1, rs1520220 and rs2946834, showed a strong association with mammographic density. Those with the homozygous variant genotype for rs1520220 had a mean percentage mammographic density of 19.6% compared with those with the homozygous wild-type genotype, who had a mean percentage mammographic density of 27.9% (p for trend < 0.0001). Those that were homozygous variant for rs2946834 had a mean percentage mammographic density of 23.2% compared with those who were homozygous wild-type with a mean percentage mammographic density of 28.2% (p for trend = 0.0004). Permutation testing demonstrated that results as strong as these are unlikely to occur by chance (p = 0.0005). CONCLUSION: Common genetic variation in IGF1 is strongly associated with percentage mammographic density

The association of breast mitogens with mammographic densities

Radiologically dense breast tissue (mammographic density) is strongly associated with risk of breast cancer, but the biological basis for this association is unknown. In this study we have examined the association of circulating levels of hormones and growth factors with mammographic density. A total of 382 subjects, 193 premenopausal and 189 postmenopausal, without previous breast cancer or current hormone use, were selected in each of five categories of breast density from mammography units. Risk factor information, anthropometric measures, and blood samples were obtained, and oestradiol, progesterone, sex hormone binding globulin, growth hormone, insulin-like growth factor-I and its principal binding protein, and prolactin measured. Mammograms were digitised and measured using a computer-assisted method. After adjustment for other risk factors, we found in premenopausal women that serum insulin-like growth factor-I levels, and in postmenopausal women, serum levels of prolactin, were both significantly and positively associated with per cent density. Total oestradiol and progesterone levels were unrelated to per cent density in both groups. In postmenopausal women, free oestradiol (negatively), and sex hormone binding globulin (positively), were significantly related to per cent density. These data show an association between blood levels of breast mitogens and mammographic density, and suggest a biological basis for the associated risk of breast cancer