Partisan impacts on the economy: evidence from prediction markets and close elections

Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations following the release of flawed exit poll data on election day 2004, and then during the vote count we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices, interest rates and oil prices, and a stronger dollar under a George W. Bush presidency than under John Kerry. A similar Republican–Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush–Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all presidential elections since 1880 also reveal a similar pattern of partisan impacts, suggesting that electing a Republican president raises equity valuations by 2–3 percent, and that since Ronald Reagan, Republican presidents have tended to raise bond yields

The Mythology of Game Theory

Non-cooperative game theory is at its heart a theory of cognition, specifically a theory of how decisions are made. Game theory\u27s leverage is that we can design different payoffs, settings, player arrays, action possibilities, and information structures, and that these differences lead to different strategies, outcomes, and equilibria. It is well-known that, in experimental settings, people do not adopt the predicted strategies, outcomes, and equilibria. The standard response to this mismatch of prediction and observation is to add various psychological axioms to the game-theoretic framework. Regardless of the differing specific proposals and results, game theory uniformly makes certain cognitive assumptions that seem rarely to be acknowledged, much less interrogated. Indeed, it is not widely understood that game theory is essentially a cognitive theory. Here, we interrogate those cognitive assumptions. We do more than reject specific predictions from specific games. More broadly, we reject the underlying cognitive model implicitly assumed by game theory

Magnetic structure of CeRhIn5_{5} under magnetic field

The magnetically ordered ground state of CeRhIn$_{5}$ at ambient pressure and zero magnetic field is an incomensurate helicoidal phase with the propagation vector $\bf{k}$=(1/2, 1/2, 0.298) and the magnetic moment in the basal plane of the tetragonal structure. We determined by neutron diffraction the two different magnetically ordered phases of CeRhIn$_{5}$ evidenced by bulk measurements under applied magnetic field in its basal plane. The low temperature high magnetic phase corresponds to a sine-wave structure of the magnetization being commensurate with $\bf{k}$=(1/2, 1/2, 1/4). At high temperature, the phase is incommensurate with $\bf{k}$=(1/2, 1/2, 0.298) and a possible small ellipticity. The propagation vector of this phase is the same as the one of the zero-field structure.Comment: 4 Figure

National interest to global reform: patterns of reasoning in British foreign policy discourse

Discussion of the national interest often focuses on how Britain's influence can be maximized, rather than on the goals that influence serves. Yet what gives content to claims about the national interest is the means-ends reasoning which links interests to deeper goals. In ideal-typical terms, this can take two forms. The first, and more common, approach is conservative: it infers national interests and the goals they advance from existing policies and commitments. The second is reformist: it starts by specifying national goals and then asks how they are best advanced under particular conditions. New Labour's foreign policy discourse is notable for its explicit use of a reformist approach. Indeed, Gordon Brown's vision of a 'new global society' not only identifies global reform as a key means of fulfilling national goals, but also thereby extends the concept of the national interest well beyond a narrow concern with national security

Growth factor stimulation of cardiomyocytes induces changes in the transcriptional contents of secreted exosomes

Exosomes are nano-sized extracellular vesicles, released from various cells, which can stimulate or repress responses in targets cells. We recently reported that cultured cardiomyocytes are able to release exosomes and that they, in turn, are involved in facilitating events in target cells by alteration of gene expression. We investigated whether external stimuli of the cardiomyocyte might influence the transcriptional content of the released exosomes.Exosomes were isolated from media collected from cultured cardiomyocytes (HL-1) with or without growth factor treatment (TGF-β2 and PDGF-BB), with a series of differential centrifugations, including preparative ultracentrifugation and separation with a sucrose gradient. The exosomes were characterized with dynamic light scattering (DLS), electron microscopy (EM) and Western blot and analyzed with Illumina whole genome microarray gene expression.The exosomes were rounded in shape and had an average size of 50–90 nm in diameter with no difference between treatment groups. Analysis of the mRNA content in repeated experiments conclusively revealed 505 transcripts in the control group, 562 in the TGF-β2-treated group and 300 in the PDGF-BB-treated group. Common transcripts (217) were found in all 3 groups.We show that the mode of stimulation of parental cells affects the characteristics of exosomes released. Hence, there is a difference in mRNA content between exosomes derived from cultured cardiomyocytes stimulated, or not stimulated, with growth factors. We also conclude that all exosomes contain a basic package consisting of ribosomal transcripts and mRNAs coding for proteins with functions within the energy supply system. To access the supplementary material to this article, please see Supplementary files under Article Tools online

Tumor-derived exosomes confer antigen-specific immunosuppression in a murine delayed-type hypersensitivity model

Exosomes are endosome-derived small membrane vesicles that are secreted by most cell types including tumor cells. Tumor-derived exosomes usually contain tumor antigens and have been used as a source of tumor antigens to stimulate anti-tumor immune responses. However, many reports also suggest that tumor-derived exosomes can facilitate tumor immune evasion through different mechanisms, most of which are antigen-independent. In the present study we used a mouse model of delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH) and demonstrated that local administration of tumor-derived exosomes carrying the model antigen chicken ovalbumin (OVA) resulted in the suppression of DTH response in an antigen-specific manner. Analysis of exosome trafficking demonstrated that following local injection, tumor-derived exosomes were internalized by CD11c+ cells and transported to the draining LN. Exosome-mediated DTH suppression is associated with increased mRNA levels of TGF-β1 and IL-4 in the draining LN. The tumor-derived exosomes examined were also found to inhibit DC maturation. Taken together, our results suggest a role for tumor-derived exosomes in inducing tumor antigen-specific immunosuppression, possibly by modulating the function of APCs. © 2011 Yang et al

Belief aggregation in financial markets and the nature of price fluctuations

We present a model of financial markets, where the belief of the market, expressed by a normal distribution over asset returns, is formed by aggregating in a dynamically consistent way individual subjective beliefs of the market participants, which are likewise assumed to follow normal distributions. We apply this model to a market of traders with standard CARA preferences with the aim of identifying an intrinsic source of price fluctuations. We find that asset prices depend on both Gaussian parameters mean and variance of the market belief, but argue that the latter changes slower than the former. Consequently, price fluctuations are dominated by the covariance matrix of the market participants’ subjective beliefs about expected asset returns