Changes in the Status and Distribution of the Yellow-faced Bumble Bee

Bombus vosnesenskii, the distinctively-patterned Yellow-faced Bumble Bee, has undergone a significant and rapid range extension in British Columbia. Known initially from a single record of a few specimens at Osoyoos in 1951, it was put forward in 1996 as a species that warranted a threatened or endangered status because of its severely restricted range in the province. However, since 2000, the species has expanded north in the Okanagan Valley, west to the Similkameen Valley and, especially, has become firmly established in south coastal regions of the province, including Vancouver Island. Population increases in B. vosnesenskii to the south of BC have also been reported. The reasons for the rapid expansion of B. vosnesenskii in BC are unclear. Particularly in lowland southwestern BC, the range expansion might have been enhanced through escapes from colonies kept as pollinators of agricultural crops. The spread of B. vosnesenskii has coincided with the decline of B. occidentalis, so the former may have been introduced or naturally expanded its range at the same time as a niche was becoming vacant

Tourism in Scotland

In 1978 13.2 million tourist and business travellers spent £523 million in Scotland, Foreign visitors, although only 8.5% of the total, contributed £158 million (ie 30.2%) of tourist expenditure. As such tourism is both an "invisible" export, since it is a means of earning foreign exchange, and a significant provider of jobs, many of which are created in the remoter rural areas. Despite its importance statistics relating specifically to tourism are not readily available from published sources. The "industry" actually combines the resources of a wide range of activities, most of which have economic and social links with other sectors of the economy independent from tourism. These include hotels and catering, transport and travel services as well as entertainment, sport and recreation facilities. Consequently the economic impact of tourism is generally assessed not in terms of employment and output but by more indirect measures such as numbers of visitors, or bednights spent in Scotland, as well as tourist expenditure and hotel occupancy data. This brief will examine the wider economic impact of Scotland's tourism industry and its future

Review of the quarter's economic trends [April 1980]

This brief paper surveys recent world and UK economic data and reveals that there are some signs to suggest that the world economy will withstand the 1979 oil price shock better than it did in 1973/74. The main difference is that the 1979 price rise was not super-imposed on as severe an inflation as that which occurred on the previous occasion. The present rate of increase in the world prices should not reach the levels of the last cycle when the twelve month increase in manufacturing prices peaked at 23%. Advance warning by US economists that 1979 was going to be a year of difficulty did not go unnoticed by businessmen in that country who took steps in 1978 to avoid a repetition of the inventory boom and bust cycle which had proved so costly in the recession of 1973/74. Also, consumer expectations are adjusting towards a continuing rise in the price of oil. In the UK real GDP is expected to fall by 2½% from mid-year 1980. Thereafter, it is assumed to grow at an average annual rate of 1% for the next four years

The Scottish economy [October 1979]

The previous two issues of this Commentary have both indicated that the Scottish economy has been performing poorly since the mid 1970's. This is true in both an absolute and a relative sense. Manufacturing production only increased by 1.2% between 1976 and 1978 and, after dropping below 1975 levels in the first quarter of 1979, is unlikely to show any substantial improvement for the year as a whole. In an international context the 1975-1978 performance can best be described as appalling. Over the same period industrial production in Eire grew by 28%, in Japan and the US by 23% and in West Germany and France by 15%. Inertia in developing new markets and lack of competitiveness in existing markets both contributed substantially to the virtual stagnation of Scottish output. Because the problems are so diverse, so too must be the solutions

The tax and price index

A feature of this year's Budget was the shift in emphasis from direct taxation to indirect taxation. The annual yield of income tax has been reduced by £4½ billion while that of direct taxes was increased by a similar amount. It must be acknowledged that the new tax and price index has a number of deficiencies. It is only applicable to a proportion of the population, namely those who pay tax and whose gross income is less than £10,000 per annum. It takes no account of the social wage, nor of changes in benefits, such as the recent restructuring of child allowance. It smoothes out tax payments over a full year even though, for administrative reasons, these may fluctuate widely from month to month. This brief paper explores some of these deficiencies in more detail and assess their impact on taxation

Review of the quarter's economic trends [January 1977]

There is now ample evidence that the pace of recovery in the major economies slackened during 1976. Published statistics, however, are as yet inadequate to document the full extent of the slowdown or to assert that it was a transient phenomenon. Available evidence would suggest that the growth in the major economies in 1977 may be somewhat slower than had earlier been forecast, and that in the short run further reductions in unemployment and inflation rates may be very difficult to achieve. Several threads may be drawn together in an attempt to justify this interpretation of likely future developments

Econometric forecasts for Scotland

In the first issue (July 1975) of the Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Commentary, the special article, by Professor J McGilvray, reviewed the problems associated with constructing regional econometric models to forecast key economic variables. Since that time, a number of forecasts for the Scottish economy have been made in the main text or in special articles of the Quarterly Commentary. Many of these have been underpinned by forecasting relationships which have been estimated for particular sectors of the economy. Up to now we have been unable to produce a set of relationships which could genuinely be described as a 'model' of the Scottish economy. The reason for this is simple, but illustrative of the type of problem discussed by Professor McGilvray. To understand it one must be acquainted with the fundamental differences which exist between national and regional economic models

Large amplitude variability from the persistent ultracompact X-ray binary in NGC 1851

Using archival RXTE data, we show that the ultracompact X-ray binary in NGC 1851 exhibits large amplitude X-ray flux varations of more than a factor of 10 on timescales of days to weeks and undergoes sustained periods of months where the time-averaged luminosty varies by factors of two. Variations of this magnitude and timescale have not been reported previously in other ultracompact X-ray binaries. Mass transfer in ultracompact binaries is thought to be driven by gravitational radiation and the predicted transfer rates are so high that the disks of ultracompact binaries with orbits as short as that of this object should not be susceptible to ionization instabilities. Therefore the variability characteristics we observe were unexpected, and need to be understood. We briefly discuss a few alternatives for producing the observed variations in light of the fact that the viscous timescale of the disk is of order a week, comparable to the shorter time scale variation that is observed but much less than the longer term variation. We also discuss the implications for interpretation of observations of extragalactic binaries if the type of variability seen in the source in NGC 1851 is typical.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA