One-Sided Derivative of Distance to a Compact Set

We give a complete and self-contained proof of a folklore theorem which says that in an Alexandrov space the distance between a point $\gamma(t)$ on a geodesic $\gamma$ and a compact set $K$ is a right-differentiable function of $t$. Moreover, the value of this right-derivative is given by the negative cosine of the minimal angle between the geodesic and any shortest path to the compact set (Theorem 4.3). Our treatment serves as a general introduction to metric geometry and relies only on the basic elements, such as comparison triangles and upper angles.Comment: 22 pages, 8 figure

Contamination in complex healthcare trials:the falls in care homes (FinCH) study experience

BACKGROUND: Trials are at risk of contamination bias which can occur when participants in the control group are inadvertently exposed to the intervention. This is a particular risk in rehabilitation studies where it is easy for trial interventions to be either intentionally or inadvertently adopted in control settings. The Falls in Care Homes (FinCH) trial is used in this paper as an example of a large randomised controlled trial of a complex intervention to explore the potential risks of contamination bias. We outline the FinCH trial design, present the potential risks from contamination bias, and the strategies used in the design of the trial to minimise or mitigate against this. The FinCH trial was a multi-centre randomised controlled trial, with embedded process evaluation, which evaluated whether systematic training in the use of the Guide to Action Tool for Care Homes reduced falls in care home residents. Data were collected from a number of sources to explore contamination in the FinCH trial. Where specific procedures were adopted to reduce risk of, or mitigate against, contamination, this was recorded. Data were collected from study e-mails, meetings with clinicians, research assistant and clinician network communications, and an embedded process evaluation in six intervention care homes. During the FinCH trial, there were six new falls prevention initiatives implemented outside the study which could have contaminated our intervention and findings. Methods used to minimise contamination were: cluster randomisation at the level of care home; engagement with the clinical community to highlight the risks of early adoption; establishing local collaborators in each site familiar with the local context; signing agreements with NHS falls specialists that they would maintain confidentiality regarding details of the intervention; opening additional research sites; and by raising awareness about the importance of contamination in research among participants. CONCLUSION: Complex rehabilitation trials are at risk of contamination bias. The potential for contamination bias in studies can be minimized by strengthening collaboration and dialogue with the clinical community. Researchers should recognise that clinicians may contaminate a study through lack of research expertise

Self-Contained Avionics Sensing and Flight Control System for Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

A self-contained avionics sensing and flight control system is provided for an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The system includes sensors for sensing flight control parameters and surveillance parameters, and a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver. Flight control parameters and location signals are processed to generate flight control signals. A Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) is configured to provide a look-up table storing sets of values with each set being associated with a servo mechanism mounted on the UAV and with each value in each set indicating a unique duty cycle for the servo mechanism associated therewith. Each value in each set is further indexed to a bit position indicative of a unique percentage of a maximum duty cycle for the servo mechanism associated therewith. The FPGA is further configured to provide a plurality of pulse width modulation (PWM) generators coupled to the look-up table. Each PWM generator is associated with and adapted to be coupled to one of the servo mechanisms

Birth characteristics and childhood carcinomas

BACKGROUND: Carcinomas in children are rare and have not been well studied. METHODS: We conducted a population-based case–control study and examined associations between birth characteristics and childhood carcinomas diagnosed from 28 days to 14 years during 1980–2004 using pooled data from five states (NY, WA, MN, TX, and CA) that linked their birth and cancer registries. The pooled data set contained 57 966 controls and 475 carcinoma cases, including 159 thyroid and 126 malignant melanoma cases. We used unconditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: White compared with ‘other' race was positively associated with melanoma (OR=3.22, 95% CI 1.33–8.33). Older maternal age increased the risk for melanoma (OR(per 5-year age increase)=1.20, 95% CI 1.00–1.44), whereas paternal age increased the risk for any carcinoma (OR=1.10(per 5-year age increase), 95% CI 1.01–1.20) and thyroid carcinoma (OR(per 5-year age increase)=1.16, 95% CI 1.01–1.33). Gestational age <37 vs 37–42 weeks increased the risk for thyroid carcinoma (OR=1.87, 95% CI 1.07–3.27). Plurality, birth weight, and birth order were not significantly associated with childhood carcinomas. CONCLUSION: This exploratory study indicates that some birth characteristics including older parental age and low gestational age may be related to childhood carcinoma aetiology

Commercial weight loss diets meet nutrient requirements in free living adults over 8 weeks: A randomised controlled weight loss trial

Objective: To investigate the effect of commercial weight loss programmes on macronutrient composition and micronutrient adequacy over a 2 month period

Integrated therapist and online CBT for depression in primary care (INTERACT): study protocol for a multi-centre randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) is an effective treatment for depression. Self-directed online CBT interventions have made CBT more accessible at a lower cost. However, adherence is often poor and, in the absence of therapist support, effects are modest and short-term. Delivering CBT online using instant messaging is clinically and cost-effective; however, most existing platforms are limited to instant messaging sessions, without the support of between-session "homework" activities. The INTERACT intervention integrates online CBT materials and 'high-intensity' therapist-led CBT, delivered remotely in real-time. The INTERACT trial will evaluate this novel integration in terms of clinical and cost-effectiveness, and acceptability to therapists and clients. METHODS: Pragmatic, two parallel-group multi-centre individually randomised controlled trial, with 434 patients recruited from primary care practices in Bristol, London and York. Participants with depression will be identified via General Practitioner record searches and direct referrals. INCLUSION CRITERIA: aged ≥ 18 years; score ≥ 14 on Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II); meeting International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) criteria for depression. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: alcohol or substance dependency in the past year; bipolar disorder; schizophrenia; psychosis; dementia; currently under psychiatric care for depression (including those referred but not yet seen); cannot complete questionnaires unaided or requires an interpreter; currently receiving CBT/other psychotherapy; received high-intensity CBT in the past four years; participating in another intervention trial; unwilling/unable to receive CBT via computer/laptop/smartphone. Eligible participants will be randomised to integrated CBT or usual care. Integrated CBT utilises the standard Beckian intervention for depression and comprises nine live therapist-led sessions, with (up to) a further three if clinically appropriate. The first session is 60-90 min via videocall, with subsequent 50-min sessions delivered online, using instant messaging. Participants allocated integrated CBT can access integrated online CBT resources (worksheets/information sheets/videos) within and between sessions. Outcome assessments at 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month post-randomisation. The primary outcome is the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II) score at 6 months (as a continuous variable). A nested qualitative study and health economic evaluation will be conducted. DISCUSSION: If clinically and cost-effective, this model of integrated CBT could be introduced into existing psychological services, increasing access to, and equity of, CBT provision. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN, ISRCTN13112900. Registered on 11/11/2020. Currently recruiting participants. Trial registration data are presented in Table 1

Development and implementation of clinical guidelines : an artificial intelligence perspective

Clinical practice guidelines in paper format are still the preferred form of delivery of medical knowledge and recommendations to healthcare professionals. Their current support and development process have well identified limitations to which the healthcare community has been continuously searching solutions. Artificial intelligence may create the conditions and provide the tools to address many, if not all, of these limitations.. This paper presents a comprehensive and up to date review of computer-interpretable guideline approaches, namely Arden Syntax, GLIF, PROforma, Asbru, GLARE and SAGE. It also provides an assessment of how well these approaches respond to the challenges posed by paper-based guidelines and addresses topics of Artificial intelligence that could provide a solution to the shortcomings of clinical guidelines. Among the topics addressed by this paper are expert systems, case-based reasoning, medical ontologies and reasoning under uncertainty, with a special focus on methodologies for assessing quality of information when managing incomplete information. Finally, an analysis is made of the fundamental requirements of a guideline model and the importance that standard terminologies and models for clinical data have in the semantic and syntactic interoperability between a guideline execution engine and the software tools used in clinical settings. It is also proposed a line of research that includes the development of an ontology for clinical practice guidelines and a decision model for a guideline-based expert system that manages non-compliance with clinical guidelines and uncertainty.This work is funded by national funds through the FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) within project PEst-OE/EEI/UI0752/2011"

A case–control study of childhood leukaemia and paternal occupational contact level in rural Sweden

In a national case–control study in Sweden, we investigated whether in rural areas (where susceptible individuals are more prevalent than in urban areas) leukaemia risk was higher among the young children of fathers with many work contacts, as the infective hypothesis has predicted. A total of 1935 cases diagnosed in 1958–1998 together with 7736 age-matched (within 1 year) population controls (of whom 970 and 3880 respectively were aged 0–4) were linked to paternal occupational details as recorded in the census closest to the year of birth. Applying the two classifications of occupational contact level used in a study of rural Scotland, the odds ratios for children aged 0–4 years in the highest contact category (which includes teachers) in the most rural Swedish counties were 3.47 (95% CI 1.54, 7.85) and 1.59 (1.07, 2.38) respectively, relative to the medium and low (reference) category; no such excess was found in urban or intermediate counties. There was also a significant positive trend at ages 0–4 in the rural counties across the three levels of increasing occupational contact (P for trend 0.02 and 0.03, respectively), but again not in the urban or intermediate counties. No such effect or trend was found at ages 5–14 in any of the three county groupings. The findings confirm those of a recent study in rural Scotland, and also suggest that unusual population mixing (as occurred in Scotland as a result of the North Sea oil industry) is not a necessary requirement for the effect, since comparable mixing has not been a feature of rural Sweden

Results from the centers for disease control and prevention's predict the 2013-2014 Influenza Season Challenge

Background: Early insights into the timing of the start, peak, and intensity of the influenza season could be useful in planning influenza prevention and control activities. To encourage development and innovation in influenza forecasting, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) organized a challenge to predict the 2013-14 Unites States influenza season. Methods: Challenge contestants were asked to forecast the start, peak, and intensity of the 2013-2014 influenza season at the national level and at any or all Health and Human Services (HHS) region level(s). The challenge ran from December 1, 2013-March 27, 2014; contestants were required to submit 9 biweekly forecasts at the national level to be eligible. The selection of the winner was based on expert evaluation of the methodology used to make the prediction and the accuracy of the prediction as judged against the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet). Results: Nine teams submitted 13 forecasts for all required milestones. The first forecast was due on December 2, 2013; 3/13 forecasts received correctly predicted the start of the influenza season within one week, 1/13 predicted the peak within 1 week, 3/13 predicted the peak ILINet percentage within 1 %, and 4/13 predicted the season duration within 1 week. For the prediction due on December 19, 2013, the number of forecasts that correctly forecasted the peak week increased to 2/13, the peak percentage to 6/13, and the duration of the season to 6/13. As the season progressed, the forecasts became more stable and were closer to the season milestones. Conclusion: Forecasting has become technically feasible, but further efforts are needed to improve forecast accuracy so that policy makers can reliably use these predictions. CDC and challenge contestants plan to build upon the methods developed during this contest to improve the accuracy of influenza forecasts. © 2016 The Author(s)

1953: Abilene Christian College Bible Lectures - Full Text

Delivered in the Auditorium of Abilene Christian College, February, 1953 ABILENE, TEXAS PRICE: $3.00 firm foundation publishing house Box 77 Austin 01, Texa