PERSPECTIVAS PARA O SETOR SUCROALCOOLEIRO BRASILEIRO NOS PROGRAMAS DE ÁLCOOL COMBUSTÍVEL DA UNIÃO EUROPÉIA, JAPÃO E BRASIL

O presente trabalho teve como objetivo delinear cenários para o consumo de álcool utilizado como combustível no Japão, nas maiores economias da União Européia (Alemanha, França, Itália, Reino Unido), mercados com potencial para serem grandes importadores de álcool combustível brasileiro, considerando-se um horizonte até o ano de 2012. Efetua-se também uma comparação entre o potencial de importação destes mercados com o mercado doméstico brasileiro. O Japão é o país desenvolvido com maior potencial para se tornar um grande importador de álcool brasileiro. No cenário mais otimista apresentou-se a possibilidade de consumo de aproximadamente 6,5 bilhões de litros. Na União Européia, o cenário mais otimista de consumo seria da ordem de 1,36 bilhões de litros. Projetou-se, ainda, o consumo de álcool anidro e hidratado no Brasil, o mercado doméstico apresenta o maior potencial de demanda para o setor sucroalcooleiro brasileiro, podendo atingir 17,4 bilhões de litros.---------------------------------------------The present work had as objective to delineate scenes for the consumption of ethanol used as combustible in Japan, in the biggest economies of the European Union (Germany, France, Italy, the United kingdom), markets with potential to be great Brazilian combustible alcohol importers, considering a horizon until the year of 2012. A comparison is also effected enters the potential of importation of these markets with the Brazilian domestic market. Japan is the developed country, analysed, with bigger potential to become a great Brazilian importer of ethanol. In the scene most optimistical it was presented approximately possibility of consumption of 6,5 billion liters. In the European Union, the consumption scene most optimistical would be of the order of 1,36 billion liters. It was projected, still, the consumption of alcohol in Brazil, the Brazilian market as being the biggest potential market with respect to the Brazilian producers of alcohol, being able to reach 17,4 billion liters.Álcool, Brasil, Japão e União Européia, Ethanol, Japan, European Union and Brazil, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Modelos econômicos e climáticos para estimativa da oferta cafeeira

The objective of this work was to estimate the coffee supply by calibrating statistical models with economic and climatic variables for the main producing regions of the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The regions were Batatais, Caconde, Cássia dos Coqueiros, Cristais Paulista, Espírito Santo do Pinhal, Marília, Mococa, and Osvaldo Cruz. Data on coffee supply, economic variables (rural credit, rural agricultural credit, and production value), and climatic variables (air temperature, rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, water deficit, and water surplus) for each region, during the period from 2000–2014, were used. The models were calibrated using multiple linear regression, and all possible combinations were tested for selecting the variables. Coffee supply was the dependent variable, and the other ones were considered independent. The accuracy and precision of the models were assessed by the mean absolute percentage error and the adjusted coefficient of determination, respectively. The variables that most affect coffee supply are production value and air temperature. Coffee supply can be estimated with multiple linear regressions using economic and climatic variables. The most accurate models are those calibrated to estimate coffee supply for the regions of Cássia dos Coqueiros and Osvaldo Cruz.O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar a oferta cafeeira por meio da calibração de modelos estatísticos, com variáveis econômicas e climáticas, das principais regiões produtoras do Estado de São Paulo. As regiões estudadas foram Batatais, Caconde, Cássia dos Coqueiros, Cristais Paulista, Espírito Santo do Pinhal, Marília, Mococa e Osvaldo Cruz. Foram utilizados dados de oferta cafeeira, variáveis econômicas (crédito rural, crédito rural na agricultura e valor da produção) e variáveis climáticas (temperatura do ar, precipitação pluvial, evapotranspiração potencial, deficiência e excedente hídrico) de cada região, para o período de 2000–2014. Os modelos foram calibrados com uso de técnicas de regressão linear múltipla, e todas as combinações possíveis foram testadas para a seleção das variáveis. A oferta cafeeira foi a variável dependente, e as demais, as independentes. A acurácia e a precisão dos modelos foram analisadas pelo erro percentual médio e pelo coeficiente de determinação ajustado, respectivamente. As variáveis que mais influenciam a oferta cafeeira são o valor de produção e a temperatura do ar. É possível estimar a oferta cafeeira com regressões lineares múltiplas por meio de variáveis econômicas e elementos climáticos. Os modelos mais acurados são os calibrados para estimar a oferta cafeeira das regiões de Cássia dos Coqueiros e Osvaldo Cruz

Transformações na cadeia produtiva do leite : uma analise a partir das cooperativas

Orientador: Walter BelikDissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de EconomiaResumo: Até o final da década de 80 o Estado intervinha na cadeia produtiva do leite mediante regulamentação dos preços, tanto no que se refere aos preços finais quanto aos pagos ao produtor. Apesar de ter como objetivo central a defesa da renda do produtor e o acesso da população aos derivados lácteos, essa intervenção, nesses 45 anos, enfatizou a garantia do abastecimento do mercado de leite pasteurizado com preços acessíveis a toda a população. Para atingir esses objetivos o governo permitiu que ocorresse depreciação dos preços reais pagos ao produtor e recorreu a importações para garantir o abastecimento anual, principalmente em épocas de entre-safra. Os impactos dessa intervenção foram o desencadeamento de um modelo extensivo de crescimento da pecuária leiteira, marcado por baixa especialização do produtor e incorporação de novas bacias leiteiras, garantindo assim o crescimento da produção nacional. No elo industrial, a intervenção nos preços, aliada às características do leite pasteurizado, com sua pouca durabilidade e necessidade de refrigeração, resultava em amenização da concorrência entre as empresas. As cooperativas de produtores de leite e as empresas nacionais dominavam os mercados regionais de leite pasteurizado, ao passo que as transnacionais se inseriram em mercados de outros derivados lácteos, como iogurte, leite longa vida, sobremesas lácteas etc. Na década de 90 ocorreram mudanças no ambiente institucional vigente na cadeia produtiva do leite, promovendo-se a liberalização dos preços em todos os seus elos, abertura comercial e a implantação do Mercosul. Tais mudanças no ambiente institucional geraram maior concorrência entre as empresas inseridas no elo industrial, tanto no que se refere à captação de leite quanto ao mercado de leite e derivados, propiciando um processo de fusões e aquisições - encabeçado pelas empresas privadas, principalmente as transnacionais - e desencadeando redução dos preços dos derivados lácteos, pressionando assim a redução dos preços em todos os elos da cadeia produtiva. Neste trabalho teve-se o objetivo de analisar os impactos das mudanças no ambiente institucional no elo industrial da cadeia produtiva do leite e as desvantagens competitivas das cooperativas de produtores de leite diante das empresas privadas nesse novo ambiente. Pretendeu-se ainda analisar como algumas cooperativas estão se adaptando a esse contexto. As cooperativas, que historicamente tinham grande importância na captação de leite ín natura e processamento de leite pasteurizado até a década de 80, depararam-se com problemas na década de 90 pelos seguintes motivos: disseminação do consumo de leite longa vida que as obriga a mudar suas estratégias de mercado, diversificando a produção; problemas de financiamento enfrentados por todas as cooperativas agrícolas; e, necessidade de reestruturar sua estrutura administrativa, tomando-as mais aptas a acompanharem as mudanças ocorridas na cadeia produtiva do leite e estarem mais abertas a parcerias e incorporações, requisitos essenciais para esse novo ambiente concorrencialAbstract: Milk productive chain prices paid by consumers as well as to producers, until the late 80's, were State controlled. Such intervention, in spite of pursuing goals such as warrant producer's income and population access to dairy products, along these 45 years, emphasized the warranty of pasteurized milk supply with consumer prices accessible to the whole population. In order to achieve these goals, the govemment permitted that the real price paid to dairy farmer devalued and warranted annual supply through resorting to imports. Such policy triggered off a dairy cattleraising extensive growth model characterized by farmers low specialization and the incorporation of new productive areas, warranting national production growth. On the industrial link, prices intervention along with pasteurized milk features, which are the short durability and the refrigeration needs, resulted a weak competition among the firms. Dairy cooperatives and national companies dominated pasteurized milk regional markets, while transnational enterprises got into altemative dairy markets such as yogurt, ultra high temperature milk, desserts, etc. In the Early 90's there was a major change in the institutional environment of the milk productive chain. The three changes were the following: the opening ofthe dairy market, the deregulation of prices and implementation of Mercosul. Such changes promoted a stronger competition among industrial firms, either on what refers to milk collection as to milk and dairy markets, resulting in products price reduction, pressing them down in ali the milk productive chain links and triggeling off an acquisition and fusion process leaded by private firms, mainly transnational ones. The goal of this dissertation is to analyze the institutional environment changes impacts over the milk productive chain industrial links and the competitive disadvantages of the cooperatives facing private firms in this new background. We intend also to analyze how some cooperatives are adapting to the new competitive environment. Cooperatives that historically presented a high participation in natura milk collection and processing up to the 80's faced problems on the next decade, either due to ultra high temperature milk dissemination which pushed themi to change their market strategies, diversifying production, or due to financing problems - faced by all agriculture cooperatives - or even by the necessity of restructuring their administrative structure, tuming them able to follow milk productive chain changes and to be more opened to partmership and fusion, essential requirements to the new competitive environmentMestradoMestre em Ciências Econômica

Impactos dos preços e do crédito rural sobre a produção de cana-de-açúcar no estado de São Paulo

The objective of this study is to measure the elasticities of the sugarcane price, the price of beef (mainly the replacement of pastures by cane fields in the state), and the variation of the rural credit concession on sugarcane production, productivity and planted area in the São Paulo state. The panel data model was used for the thirty Rural Development Offices with the largest participation in sugarcane production in the state between 1995 and 2012. The results show that the price of sugarcane in four lags impacted on the production, the planted area, and productivity. The price of beef, in one and two lags, and the concession of credit, in four lags, impacted in the production and the planted area. We concluded that price expectations for decisions related to planted area and purchase of inputs to increase productivity consider past prices. The rural credit concession impacted the planted area and consequently the production. The model of production was very similar to the model for area planted with sugarcane in the state of São Paulo. Production variation was more influenced by area variation than productivity

Impactos dos preços e do crédito rural sobre a produção de cana-de-açúcar no estado de São Paulo

The objective of this study is to measure the elasticities of the sugarcane price, the price of beef (mainly the replacement of pastures by cane fields in the state), and the variation of the rural credit concession on sugarcane production, productivity and planted area in the São Paulo state. The panel data model was used for the thirty Rural Development Offices with the largest participation in sugarcane production in the state between 1995 and 2012. The results show that the price of sugarcane in four lags impacted on the production, the planted area, and productivity. The price of beef, in one and two lags, and the concession of credit, in four lags, impacted in the production and the planted area. We concluded that price expectations for decisions related to planted area and purchase of inputs to increase productivity consider past prices. The rural credit concession impacted the planted area and consequently the production. The model of production was very similar to the model for area planted with sugarcane in the state of São Paulo. Production variation was more influenced by area variation than productivity

PERSPECTIVAS PARA O SETOR SUCROALCOOLEIRO BRASILEIRO NOS PROGRAMAS DE ÁLCOOL COMBUSTÍVEL DA UNIÃO EUROPÉIA, JAPÃO E BRASIL

O presente trabalho teve como objetivo delinear cenários para o consumo de álcool utilizado como combustível no Japão, nas maiores economias da União Européia (Alemanha, França, Itália, Reino Unido), mercados com potencial para serem grandes importadores de álcool combustível brasileiro, considerando-se um horizonte até o ano de 2012. Efetua-se também uma comparação entre o potencial de importação destes mercados com o mercado doméstico brasileiro. O Japão é o país desenvolvido com maior potencial para se tornar um grande importador de álcool brasileiro. No cenário mais otimista apresentou-se a possibilidade de consumo de aproximadamente 6,5 bilhões de litros. Na União Européia, o cenário mais otimista de consumo seria da ordem de 1,36 bilhões de litros. Projetou-se, ainda, o consumo de álcool anidro e hidratado no Brasil, o mercado doméstico apresenta o maior potencial de demanda para o setor sucroalcooleiro brasileiro, podendo atingir 17,4 bilhões de litros.---------------------------------------------The present work had as objective to delineate scenes for the consumption of ethanol used as combustible in Japan, in the biggest economies of the European Union (Germany, France, Italy, the United kingdom), markets with potential to be great Brazilian combustible alcohol importers, considering a horizon until the year of 2012. A comparison is also effected enters the potential of importation of these markets with the Brazilian domestic market. Japan is the developed country, analysed, with bigger potential to become a great Brazilian importer of ethanol. In the scene most optimistical it was presented approximately possibility of consumption of 6,5 billion liters. In the European Union, the consumption scene most optimistical would be of the order of 1,36 billion liters. It was projected, still, the consumption of alcohol in Brazil, the Brazilian market as being the biggest potential market with respect to the Brazilian producers of alcohol, being able to reach 17,4 billion liters

Análise comparativa da competitividade das exportações de soja em grão do Brasil, Estados Unidos e Argentina

The aim of the study was to compare the performance of Brazilian, North-American, and Argentine soybean exports in the period from 2002 to 2017. As a methodological procedure, we analyzed the time series of the largest exporters and importers and used the Constant Market Share model to measure the effects of world trade growth, export destination, and competitiveness of the three largest exporters. China was the main responsible for boosting the global growth of soybean imports in the analyzed period. The effect of world trade growth favored the three exporting countries. Meanwhile, the export destination effect favored the US and Argentina and disfavored Brazil. The competitiveness effect, in turn, was positive for Brazil and negative for Argentina and the United States. It can be concluded that the positive effect regarding Brazilian competitiveness was due to the increased participation in Chinese imports (from 29% to 44%) and in Other Import Markets (from 18.74% to 38.63%). Argentina and the US lost shares in the Chinese market, in other import markets, and in world imports. However, this conclusion should not be extended to the soy agro-industrial complex, as most Argentine exports are of soybean meal and oil

Análise comparativa da competitividade das exportações de soja em grão do Brasil, Estados Unidos e Argentina

The aim of the study was to compare the performance of Brazilian, North-American, and Argentine soybean exports in the period from 2002 to 2017. As a methodological procedure, we analyzed the time series of the largest exporters and importers and used the Constant Market Share model to measure the effects of world trade growth, export destination, and competitiveness of the three largest exporters. China was the main responsible for boosting the global growth of soybean imports in the analyzed period. The effect of world trade growth favored the three exporting countries. Meanwhile, the export destination effect favored the US and Argentina and disfavored Brazil. The competitiveness effect, in turn, was positive for Brazil and negative for Argentina and the United States. It can be concluded that the positive effect regarding Brazilian competitiveness was due to the increased participation in Chinese imports (from 29% to 44%) and in Other Import Markets (from 18.74% to 38.63%). Argentina and the US lost shares in the Chinese market, in other import markets, and in world imports. However, this conclusion should not be extended to the soy agro-industrial complex, as most Argentine exports are of soybean meal and oil

Forecasting fuel ethanol consumption in Brazil by time series models: 2006-2012

This article analysed scenarios for Brazilian consumption of ethanol for the period 2006 to 2012. The results show that if the country's GDP sustains a 4.6% a year growth, domestic consumption of fuel ethanol could increase to 25.16 billion liters in this period, which is a volume relatively close to the forecasted gasoline consumption of 31 billion liters. At a lower GDP growth of 1.22% a year, gasoline consumption would be reduced and domestic ethanol consumption in Brazil would be no higher than 18.32 billion liters. Contrary to the current situation, forecasts indicated that hydrated ethanol consumption could become much higher than anhydrous consumption in Brazil. The former is being consumed in cars moved exclusively by ethanol and flex-fuel cars, successfully introduced in the country at 2003. Flex cars allow Brazilian consumers to choose between gasoline and hydrated ethanol and immediately switch to whichever fuel presents the most favourable relative price.