SOCIAL EXCHANGE RATES, MERCOSUR AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

The path towards a common market requires an alignment of macroeconomic policies. In the case of the MERCOSUL member countries, the observed disparities in the exchange, tax and monetary policies constitute major imbalances and impede future international economic integration. Apart from residual differences on trade policies among the member countries, macroeconomic policy disparities also reflect populism and the resulting lack of political will and mutual commitment with the regional goals. There is general professional agreement that, under a fixed exchange rate regimen with trade protection, the social exchange rate exceeds the official and/or market rate. Accordingly, the adoption of an exchange regimen with flexible exchange rates certeris paribus should significantly reduce the difference between the official exchange or market rate and the social exchange rate. The general purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the changes of exchange policies in Brazil against the backdrop of the MERCOSUR economic integration process. To do this, an appropriate measure for the social exchange rate is developed and estimated. This measure also has an immediate practical relevance, as it is suitable for use in the economic analysis of investment projects in Brazil. By using a model of opportunity cost for foreign exchange to estimate the social exchange rate, the study concludes that there was no relevant alteration in the order of economic activities according to the degree of effective protection. The exchange policy changes effects will only be felt in the medium and long run, but their reflections can already be clearly perceived through the declining tendency of the social exchange rate.International Development, International Relations/Trade,

IMPACTOS DO CRÉDITO RURAL NO BRASIL

O principal objetivo desta comunicação é relatar o andamento de uma pesquisa sobre o impacto da política de crédito rural concedido a produtores rurais e cooperativas no Brasil. Com este propósito, foram utilizados dados sobre o valor e alocação dos financiamentos concedidos pelo Sistema Nacional de Crédito Rural (SNCR). A análise é feita em termos regionais, por finalidade, atividade, e classificação do produtor. Adicionalmente, a partir de 1995, foram analisados, os recursos disponibilizados para o apoio financeiro da agricultura familiar. Os resultados mostram que o crédito rural vem apresentando uma desconcentração em termos do tipo de produtor, mas continua concentrado na finalidade de custeio, na atividade agrícola e em termos regionais, sendo as regiões Norte e Nordeste as menos beneficiadas. Conclui-se que a estabilização econômica trouxe benefícios para a agricultura como o abandono da correção monetária no crédito rural. Mas esta só foi efetivamente obtida através da valorização cambial e juros reais elevados, que perdurando durante vários anos (1993-1998), causaram em um primeiro momento, expressivo crescimento das dívidas externa e interna do país.----------------------------------------------The objective of this paper is to report a research in progress aimed at evaluating the impact of agricultural credit given to farmers and cooperatives in Brazil. For this purpose value and allocation data of loans given to farmers and cooperatives by the Brazilian Rural Credit System (SNCR) were used. The analysis takes into account total amount, regional distribution, type of credit, economic activity and farmer type. Additionally, after 1995, the financial resources available for family agriculture are also analyzed. The paper concludes that economic stabilization brought real benefits to agriculture as the end of monetary correction in farm credit. But this was only effectively reached by exchange valorization and high real interest, that persisted for several years (1993-1998), that in a first moment to an expressive increase in internal e foreign debt.crédito rural, cooperativas agrícolas, agricultura familiar, farm credit, farm cooperatives, family agriculture, Agricultural Finance,

POTENCIALIDADE DO SEGURO RURAL NO BRASIL

O objetivo desta comunicação é relatar o andamento de uma pesquisa que visa avaliar a eficiência econômica de programas de seguro rural no contexto brasileiro, usando como base o atual projeto do governo de criação do Fundo de Catástrofe. A potencialidade do seguro rural no Brasil é discutida e avaliada tendo como pano de fundo a atual política agrícola brasileira, fundamentada principalmente no incentivo ao crédito rural. A intenção é verificar a eficiência dos gastos do governo com as políticas voltadas ao setor agropecuário. Neste sentido, são apresentadas e discutidas as experiências internacionais que se utilizam o seguro rural ao produtor, em detrimento dos subsídios diretos ao crédito. O artigo conclui que o Fundo de Catástrofe poderá permitir não apenas o crescimento consistente e significativo do mercado de seguro rural, como também poderá ser um importante instrumento anticíclico de apoio aos agricultores. Essa inovadora ação de governo poderá significar um grande incentivo para a agricultura brasileira, constituindo-se em um passo extremamente importante para conferir maior sustentabilidade ao processo produtivo e ao agronegócio, proporcionando maior estabilidade de renda, tranqüilidade social e geração de empregos para os agricultores e suas famílias.----------------------------------------------The objective of this paper is to report a research in progress aimed at evaluating the economic efficiency of crop insurance in Brazil by using a proposed government project called Catastrophic Fund. The potentiality of crop insurance in Brazil is discussed and evaluated in a Brazilian agricultural policy background context mainly emphasized by rural credit incentives. The major purpose is to analyze the efficiency of government expenses in public policies in the agricultural sector. Therefore, international experience using crop insurance is reviewed and discussed for producers using crop insurance opposite to direct credit subsidies. The paper concludes that the Catastrophic Fund could permit not only a consistent and significant increase in the crop insurance market, but could also become an important anticyclical instrument support support to farmers. This innovative government action could result in an amazing incentive to Brazilian agriculture, bringing more sustainability to production and the agribusiness, resulting in more income stability, social tranquility and employment generation for farmers and their families.seguro rural, política agrícola, fundo de catástrofe, crop insurance, agricultural policy, catastrophic fund, Agricultural and Food Policy, Risk and Uncertainty,

A mudança do regime cambial e o seu impacto na balança comercial brasileira

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the change on the Brazilian exchange rate policy implemented in January 1999, and to analyze agricultural sector transformations. Specifically, the paper is an attempt to identify the economic relations of the aggregate performance of the Brazilian commercial trade balance and total GDP or agricultural GDP, world income, and real exchange rate as of in the 1980-2006 (up to first quarter) period. The main conclusion of the study is that the exchange rate policy bands of Plano Real exerted a negative effect on exports and favored imports. With the liberation of the Brazilian exchange rate, from 1999 on, the estimated relations appear to have a positive net effect on the commercial trade balance of the country. But the statistical results of the econometric model are not reliable.Exchange Rate Policy, Commercial Trade Balance, Brazilian Agriculture, International Relations/Trade,

Metformin, but not glimepiride, improves carotid artery diameter and blood flow in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effects of glimepiride and metformin on vascular reactivity, hemostatic factors and glucose and lipid profiles in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: A prospective study was performed in 16 uncontrolled patients with diabetes previously treated with dietary intervention. The participants were randomized into metformin or glimepiride therapy groups. After four months, the patients were crossed over with no washout period to the alternative treatment for an additional four-month period on similar dosage schedules. The following variables were assessed before and after four months of each treatment: 1) fasting glycemia, insulin, catecholamines, lipid profiles and HbA1 levels; 2) t-PA and PAI-1 (antigen and activity), platelet aggregation and fibrinogen and plasminogen levels; and 3) the flow indices of the carotid and brachial arteries. In addition, at the end of each period, a 12-hour metabolic profile was obtained after fasting and every 2 hours thereafter. RESULTS: Both therapies resulted in similar decreases in fasting glucose, triglyceride and norepinephrine levels, and they increased the fibrinolytic factor plasminogen but decreased t-PA activity. Metformin caused lower insulin and pro-insulin levels and higher glucagon levels and increased systolic carotid diameter and blood flow. Neither metformin nor glimepiride affected endothelial-dependent or endothelial-independent vasodilation of the brachial artery. CONCLUSIONS: Glimepiride and metformin were effective in improving glucose and lipid profiles and norepinephrine levels. Metformin afforded more protection against macrovascular diabetes complications, increased systolic carotid artery diameter and total and systolic blood flow, and decreased insulin levels. As both therapies increased plasminogen levels but reduced t-PA activity, a coagulation process was likely still ongoing

Metformin, but not glimepiride, improves carotid artery diameter and blood flow in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effects of glimepiride and metformin on vascular reactivity, hemostatic factors and glucose and lipid profiles in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: A prospective study was performed in 16 uncontrolled patients with diabetes previously treated with dietary intervention. The participants were randomized into metformin or glimepiride therapy groups. After four months, the patients were crossed over with no washout period to the alternative treatment for an additional four-month period on similar dosage schedules. The following variables were assessed before and after four months of each treatment: 1) fasting glycemia, insulin, catecholamines, lipid profiles and HbA(1) levels; 2) t-PA and PAI-1 (antigen and activity), platelet aggregation and fibrinogen and plasminogen levels; and 3) the flow indices of the carotid and brachial arteries. In addition, at the end of each period, a 12-hour metabolic profile was obtained after fasting and every 2 hours thereafter. RESULTS: Both therapies resulted in similar decreases in fasting glucose, triglyceride and norepinephrine levels, and they increased the fibrinolytic factor plasminogen but decreased t-PA activity. Metformin caused lower insulin and pro-insulin levels and higher glucagon levels and increased systolic carotid diameter and blood flow. Neither metformin nor glimepiride affected endothelial-dependent or endothelial-independent vasodilation of the brachial artery. CONCLUSIONS: Glimepiride and metformin were effective in improving glucose and lipid profiles and norepinephrine levels. Metformin afforded more protection against macrovascular diabetes complications, increased systolic carotid artery diameter and total and systolic blood flow, and decreased insulin levels. As both therapies increased plasminogen levels but reduced t-PA activity, a coagulation process was likely still ongoing.Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo-FAPESPFundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP

Convalescent plasma for COVID-19 in hospitalised patients : an open-label, randomised clinical trial

Background: The effects of convalescent plasma (CP) therapy in hospitalised patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remain uncertain. This study investigates the effect of CP on clinical improvement in these patients. Methods: This is an investigator-initiated, randomised, parallel arm, open-label, superiority clinical trial. Patients were randomly (1:1) assigned to two infusions of CP plus standard of care (SOC) or SOC alone. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with clinical improvement 28 days after enrolment. Results: A total of 160 (80 in each arm) patients (66.3% critically ill, 33.7% severely ill) completed the trial. The median (interquartile range (IQR)) age was 60.5 (48–68) years; 58.1% were male and the median (IQR) time from symptom onset to randomisation was 10 (8–12) days. Neutralising antibody titres >1:80 were present in 133 (83.1%) patients at baseline. The proportion of patients with clinical improvement on day 28 was 61.3% in the CP+SOC group and 65.0% in the SOC group (difference −3.7%, 95% CI −18.8–11.3%). The results were similar in the severe and critically ill subgroups. There was no significant difference between CP+SOC and SOC groups in pre-specified secondary outcomes, including 28-day mortality, days alive and free of respiratory support and duration of invasive ventilatory support. Inflammatory and other laboratory marker values on days 3, 7 and 14 were similar between groups. Conclusions: CP+SOC did not result in a higher proportion of clinical improvement on day 28 in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 compared to SOC alone