Comment on "Including Systematic Uncertainties in Confidence Interval Construction for Poisson Statistics"

The incorporation of systematic uncertainties into confidence interval calculations has been addressed recently in a paper by Conrad et al. (Physical Review D 67 (2003) 012002). In their work, systematic uncertainities in detector efficiencies and background flux predictions were incorporated following the hybrid frequentist-Bayesian prescription of Cousins and Highland, but using the likelihood ratio ordering of Feldman and Cousins in order to produce "unified" confidence intervals. In general, the resulting intervals behaved as one would intuitively expect, i.e. increased with increasing uncertainties. However, it was noted that for numbers of observed events less than or of order of the expected background, the intervals could sometimes behave in a completely counter-intuitive fashion -- being seen to initially decrease in the face of increasing uncertainties, but only for the case of increasing signal efficiency uncertainty. In this comment, we show that the problematic behaviour is due to integration over the signal efficiency uncertainty while maximising the best fit alternative hypothesis likelihood. If the alternative hypothesis likelihood is determined by unconditionally maximising with respect to both the unknown signal and signal efficiency uncertainty, the limits display the correct intuitive behaviour.Comment: Submitted to Physical Review

Treatment of the background error in the statistical analysis of Poisson processes

The formalism that allows to take into account the error sigma_b of the expected mean background b in the statistical analysis of a Poisson process with the frequentistic method is presented. It is shown that the error sigma_b cannot be neglected if it is not much smaller than sqrt(b). The resulting confidence belt is larger that the one for sigma_b=0, leading to larger confidence intervals for the mean mu of signal events.Comment: 15 pages including 2 figures, RevTeX. Final version published in Phys. Rev. D 59 (1999) 11300

Search for Solar Axions Produced in the p+d→3He+Ap + d \rightarrow\rm{^3He}+ A Reaction

A search for the axioelectric absorption of 5.5-MeV solar axions produced in the $p+d\rightarrow \rm{^3He}+\gamma(5.5 \rm{MeV})$ reaction was performed with two BGO detectors placed inside a low-background setup. A model independent limit on axion-photon and axion-nucleon couplings was obtained: $|g_{Ae}\times g_{AN}| \leq 3.2\times 10^{-9} (m_A=0)$. Constraints on the axion-electron coupling constant were obtained for axions with masses in the $(0.1-1.0)$ MeV range: $g_{Ae}\leq (1.8-9.0)\times 10^{-7}$. The solar positron flux from $A\rightarrow e^-+e^+$ decay was determined for axions with masses $m_A > 2m_e$. Using the existing experimental data on the interplanetary positron flux, a new constraint on the axion-electron coupling constant for axions with masses in the $(1.2-5.4)$ MeV range was obtained: $g_{Ae} \leq (1-5)\times 10^{-17}$.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure

On the alpha activity of natural tungsten isotopes

The indication for the alpha decay of 180-W with a half-life T1/2=1.1+0.8-0.4(stat)+-0.3(syst)x10^18 yr has been observed for the first time with the help of the super-low background 116-CdWO_4 crystal scintillators. In conservative approach the lower limit on half-life of 180-W has been established as T1/2>0.7x10^18 yr at 90% C.L. Besides, new T1/2 bounds were set for alpha decay of 182-W, 183-W, 184-W and 186-W at the level of 10^20 yr.Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures, accepted in Phys. Rev.

Decaying Dark Matter can explain the electron/positron excesses

PAMELA and ATIC recently reported excesses in e+ e- cosmic rays. Since the interpretation in terms of DM annihilations was found to be not easily compatible with constraints from photon observations, we consider the DM decay hypothesis and find that it can explain the e+ e- excesses compatibly with all constraints, and can be tested by dedicated HESS observations of the Galactic Ridge. ATIC data indicate a DM mass of about 2 TeV: this mass naturally implies the observed DM abundance relative to ordinary matter if DM is a quasi-stable composite particle with a baryon-like matter asymmetry. Technicolor naturally yields these type of candidates.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figure

Gamma-ray and radio tests of the e+e- excess from DM annihilations

PAMELA and ATIC recently reported an excess in e+e- cosmic rays. We show that if it is due to Dark Matter annihilations, the associated gamma-ray flux and the synchrotron emission produced by e+e- in the galactic magnetic field violate HESS and radio observations of the galactic center and HESS observations of dwarf Spheroidals, unless the DM density profile is significantly less steep than the benchmark NFW and Einasto profiles.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figures; v2: normalizations fixed in Table 2 and typos corrected (no changes in the analysis nor the results), some references and comments added; v3: minor additions, matches published versio

Search for flavor-changing neutral currents and lepton-family-number violation in two-body D0 decays

Results of a search for the three neutral charm decays, D0 -> mu e, D0 -> mu mu, and D0 -> e e, are presented. This study was based on data collected in Experiment 789 at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory using 800 GeV/c proton-Au and proton-Be interactions. No evidence is found for any of the decays. Upper limits on the branching ratios, at the 90% confidence level, are obtained.Comment: 28 pages, 18 figures. Submitted to Physical Review

New Insights into White-Light Flare Emission from Radiative-Hydrodynamic Modeling of a Chromospheric Condensation

(abridged) The heating mechanism at high densities during M dwarf flares is poorly understood. Spectra of M dwarf flares in the optical and near-ultraviolet wavelength regimes have revealed three continuum components during the impulsive phase: 1) an energetically dominant blackbody component with a color temperature of T $\sim$ 10,000 K in the blue-optical, 2) a smaller amount of Balmer continuum emission in the near-ultraviolet at lambda $<$ 3646 Angstroms and 3) an apparent pseudo-continuum of blended high-order Balmer lines. These properties are not reproduced by models that employ a typical "solar-type" flare heating level in nonthermal electrons, and therefore our understanding of these spectra is limited to a phenomenological interpretation. We present a new 1D radiative-hydrodynamic model of an M dwarf flare from precipitating nonthermal electrons with a large energy flux of $10^{13}$ erg cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$. The simulation produces bright continuum emission from a dense, hot chromospheric condensation. For the first time, the observed color temperature and Balmer jump ratio are produced self-consistently in a radiative-hydrodynamic flare model. We find that a T $\sim$ 10,000 K blackbody-like continuum component and a small Balmer jump ratio result from optically thick Balmer and Paschen recombination radiation, and thus the properties of the flux spectrum are caused by blue light escaping over a larger physical depth range compared to red and near-ultraviolet light. To model the near-ultraviolet pseudo-continuum previously attributed to overlapping Balmer lines, we include the extra Balmer continuum opacity from Landau-Zener transitions that result from merged, high order energy levels of hydrogen in a dense, partially ionized atmosphere. This reveals a new diagnostic of ambient charge density in the densest regions of the atmosphere that are heated during dMe and solar flares.Comment: 50 pages, 2 tables, 13 figures. Accepted for publication in the Solar Physics Topical Issue, "Solar and Stellar Flares". Version 2 (June 22, 2015): updated to include comments by Guest Editor. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11207-015-0708-