60 research outputs found
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Union Debt Management
We study the role of government debt maturity in currency unions to identify whether debt management can help governments hedge their budgets against spending shocks. We first use a novel and detailed dataset of debt portfolios of five Euro Area countries to run a battery of VARs, estimating the responses of holding period returns to fiscal shocks. We find that government portfolios, which in our sample comprise mainly of nominal assets, have not been effective in absorbing idiosyncratic fiscal risks, whereas they have been very effective in absorbing aggregate risks. To shed light on this finding, as well as to investigate what types of debt are optimal in a currency area in the presence of both aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks, we setup a formal model of optimal debt management with two countries, benevolent governments and distortionary taxes. Our key finding is that governments should focus on issuing inflation indexed long term debt since this allows them to take full advantage of fiscal hedging. When we look at the data we find a stark increase in the issuance of real long term debt since the beginning of the Euro in many of the countries in our sample, which our model explains as an optimal response of governments to the introduction of the common currency
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Long Term Government Bonds
We study the impact of debt maturity on optimal fiscal policy by focusing on the case where the government issues a bond of maturity N > 1: Isolating these effects helps provide insight into the construction of optimal government debt portfolios. We find long bonds may not complete the market even in the absence of uncertainty, generate an incentive to twist interest rates and induce additional tax volatility compared to short term bonds. By focusing just on the issuance of long bonds we show that as well as their well known advantage in providing fiscal insurance long bonds also have less attractive features that induce additional tax volatility. In the case of long bonds, governments induce tax volatility in order to twist interest rates at maturity. This interest rate twisting effect is what makes optimal debt management models so difficult to solve computationally as the state space rapidly becomes cumbersome due to the need to keep track of promises about future tax rates. We provide an alternative institutional setup (\independent powers\) that eliminates this problem offering a simpler solution method. Introducing maturity requires making more institutional assumptions than is the case for one period bonds. In particular assumptions have to be made whether the government does or doesn't buy back each period all outstanding debt irrespective of maturity and whether long bonds pay coupons. This is important as the literature to date makes assumptions that are diametrically opposite to what is observed in practice. We show that this is an important divide as if we model optimal policy under the empirically motivated assumption that governments do not buyback bonds until maturity then long bonds induce additional tax volatility due to the existence of N period roll over cycles. These can be reduced in magnitude by the government issuing long bonds that pay coupons although because coupons reduce the duration of a bond below its maturity this does compromise the ability of long bonds to provide fiscal insurance
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A Short Note on Optimal Debt Management under Asymmetric Information
We show that under asymetric information, if the government holds advanced information relative to the investors.some debt management policies may lead to bond market instability. The In particular, we show that the repurchase/reissuance strategy assumd in most of the current debt management literature would cause such a crisis and it would be therefore highly suboptimal.of a bond below its maturity this does compromise the ability of long bonds to provide fiscal insurance
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The Unequal Effects of Covid-19 on Economists' Research Productivity
The current lock-down measures are expected to disproportionately reduce women's labor productivity in the short run. This paper analyzes the effects of these measures on economists' research productivity. We explore the patterns of working papers publications using data from the NBER Working Papers Series, the CEPR Discussion Paper Series, the newly established research repository Covid Economics: Vetted and Real Time Papers and VoxEU columns. Our analysis suggests that although the relative number of female authors in non-pandemic related research has remained stable with respect to recent years (at around 20%), women constitute only 12% of total number of authors working on COVID-19 research. Moreover, we see that it is primarily senior economists who are contributing to this new area. Mid-career and junior economists record the biggest gap between non-COVID and COVID research, and the gender di erences are particularly stark at the mid-career level. Mid-career female economists have not yet started working on this new research area: only 12 mid-career female authors have contributed to COVID-19 related research so far, out of a total of 647 distinct authors in our dataset of papers (NBER, CEPR and CEPR Covid Economics)
Late Evaluation of Silent Cerebral Ischemia Detected by Diffusion-Weighted MR Imaging after Filter-Protected Carotid Artery Stenting
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Postoperative diffusion-weighted MR imaging (DWI) often discloses new lesions after carotid artery stent placement (CAS), most of them asymptomatic. Our aim was to investigate the fate of these silent ischemic lesions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We prospectively studied 110 patients undergoing protected transfemoral CAS, 98 of whom underwent DWI before and after the intervention. Patients in whom DWI disclosed silent postoperative lesions also had delayed MR imaging. Preoperative, postoperative, and delayed scans were compared. RESULTS: Of the 92 patients without postoperative symptoms, DWI disclosed 33 new silent ischemic lesions in 14 patients (15.2%), 13 of whom (30 lesions) underwent delayed MR imaging after a mean follow-up of 6.2 months. In 8 of these 13 patients (61%), MR imaging disclosed 12 persistent lesions (12/30, 40%). The reversibility rate depended significantly on the location (cortical versus subcortical) and size (0–5 versus 5–10 mm) of the lesions ( P χ 2 test). CONCLUSIONS: Because many silent ischemic lesions seen on postoperative DWI after CAS reverse within months, the extent of permanent CAS-related cerebral damage may be overestimated
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Foreign Direct Investment as a Determinant of Cross-Country Stock Market Comovement
We develop a theoretical framework in order to investigate the link between two recent trends: (i) the rise in cross-country stock market correlations over the past three decades, and (ii) the increase in global foreign direct investment (FDI) positions over the same period. Our objective is twofold: first, we investigate empirically the channel through which the rise in global stock market correlations is associated with the observed increase in global FDI. Second, we develop a two-country stochastic asset pricing model with multinational firms that allows us to quantify the extent to which the recent rise in global FDI can account for the observed increase in cross-country stock market comovement. Calibrating three versions of the model (financial autarky, incomplete markets and complete markets) to the US and the rest-of-the-world, we find that a permanent increase in FDI positions, as observed from mid 1990s to mid 2000s, leads to substantial increase in cross-country stock market comovements. Increases in FDI alone can account for approximately one third of the observed increase in stock market correlations. We also discuss the role of portfolio diversification and, more generally, asset market integration
Government Debt Management: The Long and the Short of It
Standard optimal Debt Management (DM) models prescribe a dominant role for long bonds and advocate against issuing short bonds. They require very large positions in order to complete markets and assume each period that governments repurchase all outstanding bonds and reissue (r/r) new ones. These features of DM are inconsistent with US data. We introduce incomplete markets via small transaction costs which serves to make optimal DM more closely resemble the data : r/r are negligible, short bond issuance substantial and persistent and short and long bonds positively co-vary. Intuitively long bonds help smooth taxes over states and short bonds over time. Solving incomplete market models with multiple assets is challenging so a further contribution of this paper is introducing a novel computational method to find global solutions
Effect of tecovirimat on healing time and viral clearance by emulation of a target trial in patients hospitalized for mpox
Tecovirimat is a treatment option for severe mpox, although randomized clinical trials are ongoing. The aim of the study is to assess the effect of tecovirimat on healing time and the extent of viral clearance by target trial emulation using observational data. Clinical and virological data of patients hospitalized for mpox were collected. Samples from the upper respiratory tract (URT) were grouped in two time points: T1 (median 6 days from symptoms onset) and T2 (median 5 days from T1). Patients were followed-up until recovery. Average treatment effect (ATE) in patients untreated versus treated with tecovirimat was estimated on time to healing and variation in viral load in URT, using a weighted and cloning analysis. Among the 41 patients included, 19 completed a course of tecovirimat. The median time from symptoms onset to hospitalization and to drug-starting was 4 days and 10 days, respectively. No improvement in healing time in treated versus untreated was observed. No difference by treatment group in time to viral clearance was detected by ATE fitted in a subset of 13 patients after controlling for confounders. We found no evidence for a large effect of tecovirimat in shortening healing time and viral clearance. While awaiting the results of randomized studies, the use of tecovirimat should be restricted to the clinical trial setting
Synergy between vitamin D and sex hormones in respiratory functionality of patients affected by COVID-19
The outcome of COVID-19 appears to be influenced by vitamin D status of population. Although epidemiological data indicate that COVID-19 produces more severe symptoms and higher mortality in elderly in comparison to young patients and in men in comparison to women to date sex and age differences in vitamin D status in infected patients have not been evaluated yet. In this study we evaluated the levels of circulating 25(OH)D in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 divided accordingly to their sex and age. We also correlated 25(OH)D levels with patient’s respiratory status (i.e., PaO2/FiO2 ratio) and with sex hormones plasma levels to analyze the potential relationship of these parameters. We found no significant differences in plasma levels of 25(OH)D between pre- and post-menopausal female patients and age matched male patients. Interestingly, the 25(OH)D plasma levels positively correlated to PaO2/FiO2 ratio only in young patients, regardless of their sex. We also found a significantly positive correlation between 17β-estradiol and 25(OH)D in elderly women and between testosterone and 25(OH)D in elderly men, supporting the role of sex hormones in maintaining 25(OH)D levels. In conclusion, we suggest that a synergy between vitamin D and sex hormones could contribute to the age-related outcome of COVID-19
Association of kidney disease measures with risk of renal function worsening in patients with type 1 diabetes
Background: Albuminuria has been classically considered a marker of kidney damage progression in diabetic patients and it is routinely assessed to monitor kidney function. However, the role of a mild GFR reduction on the development of stage 653 CKD has been less explored in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients. Aim of the present study was to evaluate the prognostic role of kidney disease measures, namely albuminuria and reduced GFR, on the development of stage 653 CKD in a large cohort of patients affected by T1DM. Methods: A total of 4284 patients affected by T1DM followed-up at 76 diabetes centers participating to the Italian Association of Clinical Diabetologists (Associazione Medici Diabetologi, AMD) initiative constitutes the study population. Urinary albumin excretion (ACR) and estimated GFR (eGFR) were retrieved and analyzed. The incidence of stage 653 CKD (eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2) or eGFR reduction > 30% from baseline was evaluated. Results: The mean estimated GFR was 98 \ub1 17 mL/min/1.73m2 and the proportion of patients with albuminuria was 15.3% (n = 654) at baseline. About 8% (n = 337) of patients developed one of the two renal endpoints during the 4-year follow-up period. Age, albuminuria (micro or macro) and baseline eGFR < 90 ml/min/m2 were independent risk factors for stage 653 CKD and renal function worsening. When compared to patients with eGFR > 90 ml/min/1.73m2 and normoalbuminuria, those with albuminuria at baseline had a 1.69 greater risk of reaching stage 3 CKD, while patients with mild eGFR reduction (i.e. eGFR between 90 and 60 mL/min/1.73 m2) show a 3.81 greater risk that rose to 8.24 for those patients with albuminuria and mild eGFR reduction at baseline. Conclusions: Albuminuria and eGFR reduction represent independent risk factors for incident stage 653 CKD in T1DM patients. The simultaneous occurrence of reduced eGFR and albuminuria have a synergistic effect on renal function worsening
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