Systematic Policy Decisions on Direct Income Payments in Agricultural Policies

Direct income payments (DIP) are in the centre of the discussion in the ongoing political debate whether agricultural policy objectives can be pursued in an economically more efficient and less distorting way. This paper discusses under which circumstances DIP are an appropriate and efficient measure to address the objectives of agricultural policies. It identifies and examines the characteristics that DIP should have in the context of different objectives. If governments want to meet their policy objectives by the use of DIP efficiently, a precise definition of the objective is crucial. An optimal policy design achieves a specific objective while keeping the impact on economic distortions low and ensuring efficiency in the allocation of resources. The decision tree for DIP presented in this paper contributes to a more systematic approach to the topic and facilitates the policy design for a sustainable and resource saving economic policy in the field of agriculture. We show that DIP can be used to address different types of policy objectives, but have to be adapted carefully depending on the specific targets. If used as a measure to compensate income losses due to policy changes, DIP could help farmers to adjust to policy changes in an efficient way and, at the same time, release budget funds. Such gains could then be used in and tied to areas that are known to be crucial but currently lack resources due to budget restrictions e.g. the provision of environmental goods and services, which can also be addressed by DIP.Direct income payments, agricultural policy, policy objectives, decision tree, Agricultural and Food Policy, Q18, E6, H5,

Shocks in economic growth = shocking effects on agricultural markets?

Projections on the development of agricultural commodity markets underlie a given set of assumptions on economic growth. However, recent economic and financial crisis, as well as signs of quicker recovery in emerging economies, increase uncertainty in the forecasts of macroeconomic developments. This paper analyses the effects of different economic growth scenarios on agricultural commodity markets. In particular we assess the potential impacts of a faster economic growth in emerging economies on the one hand and of a replication of the recent economic downturn on the other hand. The empirical analysis uses the AGLINKCOSIMO model and builds upon the recently published European agricultural outlook of the EU Commission. The simulation results demonstrate that higher economic growth influences demand more than supply, resulting in higher world market prices. Emerging economies tend to import more and stock less in order to cover their demand needs, while the rest of the world increases its exports. In total the ending stocks decrease and combined with the increased consumption, the stock-to-use ratio decreases. Replication of an economic downturn affects the markets differently, depending on how elastic or inelastic the markets react to price signals. Livestock markets appear more stable and do not regain their baseline levels within a 5-year period. The magnitude of the effects is smaller the longer the simulated time path is and certainly depends on the introduced shock.economic growth, agricultural commodity markets, AGLINK-COSIMO, International Relations/Trade,

EU ENLARGEMENT TO TURKEY: POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURAL MARKETS AND HOW THEY ARE SHAPED BY CHANGES IN MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS

The potential accession of Turkey to the EU, and the related adoption of the CAP by Turkey, is expected to influence agricultural markets in both the EU and Turkey. The extent of the accession impacts depends on the one hand on the way the CAP will be implemented in Turkey, while on the other hand impacts are expected to be also shaped by macroeconomic conditions (like exchange rates, GDP growth and inflation levels). In this paper we provide a comprehensive model-based assessment of the potential impacts on agricultural markets of a Turkish accession to the EU. We first assess the impacts under the assumption of standard macroeconomic projections, then we analyse how a different TL/Euro exchange rate, a doubling of the Turkish inflation rate or a doubling of the Turkish GDP growth rate would influence the accession impacts. Results of the Turkish EU-membership simulation show that the impacts on agricultural markets in Turkey are significant, while effects on EU markets are rather limited. The main impact on Turkish agriculture is a reduction of producer prices. With market prices and produced quantities declining, and as the coupled Turkish direct payments and the input subsidies will be replaced by lower payments of the CAP, agricultural income is expected to be reduced especially for Turkish crop producers (except for tobacco). In contrast, accession effects on the Turkish livestock sector are projected to be positive, mainly due to lower feed costs. Furthermore, the demand levels of most commodities are projected to increase due to lower prices, thus Turkish consumers are expected to gain from an accession to the EU. The further analysis reveals that in particular a depreciation of the Turkish lira alters the results of the accession scenario.Turkey, EU enlargement, agricultural markets, macro economy, AGMEMOD Zusammenfassung, Türkei, EU Erweiterung, Agrarmärkte, Makroökonomie, AGMEMOD, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance,

Commodity Market Development in Europe – Outlook Proceedings of the October 2012 Workshop

This report contains a summary and the presentations of the expert workshop 'Commodity Market Development in Europe – Outlook', held in October 2012 in Brussels. The workshop was held in order to present and discuss the preliminary results of the DG AGRI outlook on EU agricultural market developments. The workshop gathered high-level policy makers, modelling and market experts and provided a forum to present and discuss recent and projected developments on the EU agricultural and commodity markets, to outline the reasons behind observed and prospected developments, and to draw conclusions on the short/medium term perspectives of European agricultural markets in the context of world market developments. Special focus was given on the discussion of the influence of different settings/assumptions (regarding e.g. drivers of demand and supply, macroeconomic uncertainties, etc.) on the projected market developments.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

Agricultural sector and market developments: a special focus on Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan

This report presents a summary and the presentations of the expert workshop "Developments in agricultural commodity markets: a special focus on Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan". In the workshop specific sessions covered developments and perspectives of the most important agricultural commodity markets (cereals, oilseeds, biofuels, milk and meat). A special focus was given to the potential and constraints of agricultural production in the three countries. In order to outline the reasons behind observed and prospected market developments, specific topics like domestic agricultural policies and government regulations, infrastructure and organisation of the regional agricultural markets, farm structure, and issues regarding the financing of the agricultural sector in Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan were also discussed.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

Commodity Market Development in Europe – Outlook - Proceedings of the October 2011 Workshop

This report contains a summary and the presentations of the expert workshop 'Commodity Market Development in Europe – Outlook', held in October 2011 in Brussels. The workshop was held in order to present and discuss the preliminary results of the European Commission's outlook on EU agricultural market developments. The workshop gathered high-level policy makers, modelling and market experts and provided a forum to present and discuss recent and projected developments on the EU agricultural and commodity markets, outline the reasons behind observed and prospected developments, and to draw conclusions on the short/medium term perspectives of European agricultural markets in the context of world market developments. Special focus was given on the discussion of the influence of different settings/assumptions (regarding e.g. drivers of demand and supply, macroeconomic uncertainties, etc.) on the projected market developments.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

EU commodity market development: Medium-term agricultural outlook

The workshop on the 'EU commodity market development: Medium-term agricultural outlook' is an integral part of the intensive validation procedure of the results of the European Commission’s report on 'Prospects for EU agricultural markets and income'. It provides a forum for presentations on preliminary 10-year-ahead projections in EU agricultural commodity markets, and discussing in depth the EU prospects in a global context. This year the workshop was held on October 25-26 in Brussels. The workshop was jointly organised by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development (DG AGRI). Participants included policy makers, modelling and market experts from various countries, as well as stakeholders of the agri-food industry. This document summarises the presentations and discussions on the macroeconomic and energy assumptions associated with this outlook, and on each of the EU agricultural markets addressed (arable crops, biofuels, sugar, fruits/vegetables/olive oil/wine, milk and dairy, meat).JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

Semantic Process Modeling – Design and Implementation of an Ontology-based Representation of Business Processes

An extension of process modeling languages is designed which allows representing the semantics of model element labels which are formulated in natural language by using concepts of a formal ontology. This combination of semiformal models with formal ontologies will be characterized as semantic process modeling. The approach is exemplarily applied to the languages EPC (Event-driven Process Chain), BPMN (Business Process Modeling Notation) and OWL (Web Ontology Language) and is generalized by means of an information model. The proposed formalization of the semantics of individual model elements in conjunction with the usage of inference engines allows the improvement of query functionalities in modeling tools and enables new possibilities of model validation. The integration of the approach in the IT-based work environments of modelers is demonstrated by a system architecture and a prototypical implementation. Evidently, advantages in the areas of modeling, model management, IT-business alignment, and compliance can be achieved by the application of modeling tools augmented with semantic technologies

Harvest failures, temporary export restrictions and global food security: the example of limited grain exports from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan (RUK) are major players on the international grain markets and their exports help to improve global grain availability and hence food security. However, during the last decade the availability of RUK grain exports was repeatedly diminished by harvest failures and further reduced by the introduction of export restrictions. By simulating a reoccurrence of the 2010 RUK harvest situation this paper assesses the impact of grain harvest failures and subsequent temporary export restrictions (bans, quotas, taxes) on national and international food security, specifically quantifying the effects on agricultural market prices and quantities. For the analysis AGLINK-COSIMO, a recursive-dynamic, partial equilibrium, supply-demand model, has been employed. Simulation results highlight the importance of RUK’s grain production for world markets and global food security, indicating substantial price increases due to limited grain exports from RUK. Moreover, scenario results illustrate that temporary RUK export restrictions can considerably aggravate the situation on world grain markets, with particularly adverse effects for grain net importing countries. At the same time results show that for a country like Ukraine, i.e. a country usually exporting large shares of its total grains production, the introduction of export restrictions could potentially result in decreases of domestic consumer prices to a level even below a situation with normal weather conditions. The results put international trade policy into focus and underline the necessity of greater cooperation on the part of exporting countries in order to avoid importing countries being denied necessary grain supplies.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

Managing Changes in Collaborative Networks: A Conceptual Approach

Collaborative Networks represent organizational forms that became omnipresent in today’s way of making business. Such organizational forms are often established in order to satisfy a complex customer need, which one company could not satisfy on its own. This means that the participating companies are to a certain degree dependent on each other. Managing inter-firm relationships by means of inter-organizational interdependencies represents an important Business-IT Alignment issue. In this paper, we present the Dependency-based Alignment Framework, which represents a conceptual approach for managing changes in Collaborative Networks from a holistic perspective. A detailed and methodologically well-founded approach in the definition and design of our framework is accompanied by a detailed investigation of relevant properties of this design artifact. To demonstrate the applicability of our framework in practice, we introduce a case study, which uses Semantic Media Wiki and the SPARQL query language. Finally, we evaluate our results in an argumentative and deductively descriptive way