Climate change and marine mammals

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Shipping in the north-east Atlantic : identifying spatial and temporal patterns of change

This work was supported by a faculty PhD bursary from the University of Portsmouth. Work was supported by the Marine Ecosystems Research Programme.Maritime traffic is increasing globally, with a four-fold increase in commercial vessel movements between 1992 and 2012. Vessels contribute to noise and air pollution, provide pathways for non-native species, and collide with marine wildlife. While knowledge of shipping trends and potential environmental impacts exists at both local and global levels, key information on vessel density for regional-scale management is lacking. This study presents the first in-depth spatio-temporal analysis of shipping in the north-east Atlantic region, over three years in a five-year period. Densities increased by 34%, including in 73% of Marine Protected Areas. Western Scotland and the Bay of Biscay experienced the largest increases in vessel density, predominantly from small and slow vessels. Given well-documented impacts that shipping can have on the marine environment, it is crucial that this situation continues to be monitored – particularly in areas designated to protect vulnerable species and ecosystems which may already be under pressure.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Opposing effects of spatiotemporal variation in resources and temporal variation in climate on density dependent population growth in seabirds

1. Understanding how ecological processes combine to shape population dynamics is crucial in a rapidly changing world. Evidence has been emerging for how fundamental drivers of density dependence in mobile species are related to two differing types of environmental variation—temporal variation in climate, and spatiotemporal variation in food resources. However, to date, tests of these hypotheses have been largely restricted to mid-trophic species in terrestrial environments and thus their general applicability remains unknown. 2. We tested if these same processes can be identified in marine upper trophic level species. We assembled a multi-decadal data set on population abundance of 10 species of colonial seabirds comprising a large component of the UK breeding seabird biomass, and covering diverse phylogenies, life histories and foraging behaviours. 3. We tested for evidence of density dependence in population growth rates using discrete time state-space population models fit to long time-series of observations of abundance at seabird breeding colonies. We then assessed if the strength of density dependence in population growth rates was exacerbated by temporal variation in climate (sea temperature and swell height), and attenuated by spatiotemporal variation in prey resources (productivity and tidal fronts). 4. The majority of species showed patterns consistent with temporal variation in climate acting to strengthen density dependent feedbacks to population growth. However, fewer species showed evidence for a weakening of density dependence with increasing spatiotemporal variation in prey resources. 5. Our findings extend this emerging theory for how different sources of environmental variation may shape the dynamics and regulation of animal populations, demonstrating its role in upper trophic marine species. We show that environmental variation leaves a signal in long-term population dynamics of seabirds with potentially important consequences for their demography and trophic interactions

Using citizen science to better understand Risso’s dolphin (Grampus griseus) presence in northeast Scotland and the Northern Isles

There is no current population estimate for Risso’s dolphin (Grampus griseus) in Scottish waters and their distribution in the northeast of Scotland and the Northern Isles is poorly documented. Using a combination of citizen science and historical sightings data, photographs of Risso’s dolphins from northeast Scotland and the Northern Isles were gathered to gain an indication of the presence of the species in this region. A review of all available sighting records from as early as 1933 (n = 1,904 records), showed a historical presence of Risso’s dolphins in the study locations, with a notable increase in sightings reports over time and with higher numbers of sightings reported from July-September. Collation of photographs (n = 1,884) taken by members of the public and researchers facilitated the establishment of two photo-identification catalogues for Northeast Scotland and Orkney (n = 112 individuals) and for Shetland (n = 47 individuals) respectively. Mother/calf pairs were recorded between April and November. Repeated recaptures of identifiable animals throughout the study area provided the first evidence of inter/intra-annual site fidelity. The combined datasets demonstrate the potential importance of inshore coastal waters in northeast Scotland, Orkney, and Shetland as critical habitat for Risso’s dolphins. Recommendations are made for ongoing monitoring studies to inform the protection of Risso’s dolphins in Scottish waters

Origins of the Ambient Solar Wind: Implications for Space Weather

The Sun's outer atmosphere is heated to temperatures of millions of degrees, and solar plasma flows out into interplanetary space at supersonic speeds. This paper reviews our current understanding of these interrelated problems: coronal heating and the acceleration of the ambient solar wind. We also discuss where the community stands in its ability to forecast how variations in the solar wind (i.e., fast and slow wind streams) impact the Earth. Although the last few decades have seen significant progress in observations and modeling, we still do not have a complete understanding of the relevant physical processes, nor do we have a quantitatively precise census of which coronal structures contribute to specific types of solar wind. Fast streams are known to be connected to the central regions of large coronal holes. Slow streams, however, appear to come from a wide range of sources, including streamers, pseudostreamers, coronal loops, active regions, and coronal hole boundaries. Complicating our understanding even more is the fact that processes such as turbulence, stream-stream interactions, and Coulomb collisions can make it difficult to unambiguously map a parcel measured at 1 AU back down to its coronal source. We also review recent progress -- in theoretical modeling, observational data analysis, and forecasting techniques that sit at the interface between data and theory -- that gives us hope that the above problems are indeed solvable.Comment: Accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews. Special issue connected with a 2016 ISSI workshop on "The Scientific Foundations of Space Weather." 44 pages, 9 figure

Functional mechanisms underlying pleiotropic risk alleles at the 19p13.1 breast-ovarian cancer susceptibility locus

A locus at 19p13 is associated with breast cancer (BC) and ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Here we analyse 438 SNPs in this region in 46,451 BC and 15,438 OC cases, 15,252 BRCA1 mutation carriers and 73,444 controls and identify 13 candidate causal SNPs associated with serous OC (P=9.2 × 10-20), ER-negative BC (P=1.1 × 10-13), BRCA1-associated BC (P=7.7 × 10-16) and triple negative BC (P-diff=2 × 10-5). Genotype-gene expression associations are identified for candidate target genes ANKLE1 (P=2 × 10-3) and ABHD8 (P<2 × 10-3). Chromosome conformation capture identifies interactions between four candidate SNPs and ABHD8, and luciferase assays indicate six risk alleles increased transactivation of the ADHD8 promoter. Targeted deletion of a region containing risk SNP rs56069439 in a putative enhancer induces ANKLE1 downregulation; and mRNA stability assays indicate functional effects for an ANKLE1 3′-UTR SNP. Altogether, these data suggest that multiple SNPs at 19p13 regulate ABHD8 and perhaps ANKLE1 expression, and indicate common mechanisms underlying breast and ovarian cancer risk

Genome-Wide Association Study in BRCA1 Mutation Carriers Identifies Novel Loci Associated with Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk

BRCA1-associated breast and ovarian cancer risks can be modified by common genetic variants. To identify further cancer risk-modifying loci, we performed a multi-stage GWAS of 11,705 BRCA1 carriers (of whom 5,920 were diagnosed with breast and 1,839 were diagnosed with ovarian cancer), with a further replication in an additional sample of 2,646 BRCA1 carriers. We identified a novel breast cancer risk modifier locus at 1q32 for BRCA1 carriers (rs2290854, P = 2.7×10-8, HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09-1.20). In addition, we identified two novel ovarian cancer risk modifier loci: 17q21.31 (rs17631303, P = 1.4×10-8, HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38) and 4q32.3 (rs4691139, P = 3.4×10-8, HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38). The 4q32.3 locus was not associated with ovarian cancer risk in the general population or BRCA2 carriers, suggesting a BRCA1-specific associat

Factors Associated with Revision Surgery after Internal Fixation of Hip Fractures

Background: Femoral neck fractures are associated with high rates of revision surgery after management with internal fixation. Using data from the Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trial evaluating methods of internal fixation in patients with femoral neck fractures, we investigated associations between baseline and surgical factors and the need for revision surgery to promote healing, relieve pain, treat infection or improve function over 24 months postsurgery. Additionally, we investigated factors associated with (1) hardware removal and (2) implant exchange from cancellous screws (CS) or sliding hip screw (SHS) to total hip arthroplasty, hemiarthroplasty, or another internal fixation device. Methods: We identified 15 potential factors a priori that may be associated with revision surgery, 7 with hardware removal, and 14 with implant exchange. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses in our investigation. Results: Factors associated with increased risk of revision surgery included: female sex, [hazard ratio (HR) 1.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-2.50; P = 0.001], higher body mass index (fo