Macroeconomic Coordination and Inflation Targeting in a Two-Country Model

This paper deals with a macroeconomic coordination and its stabilization within a new Keynesian framework. The dynamic treatment of a twocountry model is made by simulation, using the linear quadratic algorithm. We compare the optimal monetary policy rule for three types of equilibria: macroeconomic coordination, Nash and Stackelberg, using parameters that reflect the relative size and degree of openness of the economies. Under the strict inflation target, we obtain higher output and inflation volatilities due to each economy's reaction to the other country's policy. The only exception is the case of optimal macroeconomic coordination rules. This dynamic model finds that macroeconomic coordination policy is better than non-coordination rules, supporting the traditional result found in static models.

Tracking Brazilian Exchange Rate Volatility

This paper examines the relation between dollar-real exchange rate volatility implied in option prices and subsequent realized volatility. It investigates whether implied volatilities contain information about volatility over the remaining life of the option which is not present in past returns. Using GMM estimation consistent with telescoping observations evidence suggests that implied volatilities give superior forecasts of realized volatility if compared to GARCH(p,q), and Moving Average predictors, and that econometric models forecasts do not provide significant incremental information to that contained in implied volatilities.implied volatility, telescoping observations, GMM

The Stability-Concentration Relationship in the Brazilian Banking System

In this article the relation between non-performing loans (NPL) of the Brazilian banking system and macroeconomic factors, systemic risk and banking concentration is empirically tested. While evaluating this relation, we use a dynamic specification with fixed effects, using a panel data approach. The empirical results indicate that the banking concentration has a statistically significant impact on NPL, suggesting that more concentrated banking systems may improve financial stability. These results are important for the design of banking regulation policies.

Extracting information from exchange rate options in Brazil

Neste artigo, extraem-se densidades de probabilidade neutras ao risco da taxa futura de câmbio, a partir de prêmios de opções cambiais negociadas no mercado brasileiro entre 2000 e 2005. Três medidas destacam-se nessa extração: volatilidade, assimetria e curtose implícitas. A volatilidade implícita obtida pode ser utilizada como preditor para a volatilidade futura e a densidade prevista pode ser empregada para analisar a evolução das expectativas do mercado com relação aos preços no mercado financeiro. A assimetria e a curtose implícitas são interpretadas como medidas do sentimento de mercado a respeito da direção dos possíveis movimentos do câmbio e da chance de ocorrência de eventos extremos, respectivamente. Essas medidas podem ser entendidas como indicadores macroprudenciais forward looking para o sistema financeiro doméstico. Os resultados obtidos do mercado de opções são ainda comparados com as densidades provenientes da survey realizada com economistas de mercado pelo Banco Central do Brasil, concluindo-se que ambos possuem informação relevante. A metodologia empregada neste artigo pode ser generalizada e aplicada a contratos de opções com prazos mais longos e a vários tipos de ativos.En este trabajo, se obtienen densidades de probabilidad neutrales al riesgo del tipo de cambio futuro, a partir de premios de opciones cambiarias negociadas en el mercado brasileño entre 2000 y 2005. Se utilizan tres medidas: la volatilidad, la asimetría y la curtosis implícitas. La volatilidad implícita obtenida se puede utilizar para prever la volatilidad futura y la densidad prevista se puede emplear en el análisis de la evolución de las expectativas del mercado con relación a los precios en el mercado financiero. La asimetría y la curtosis implícitas son interpretadas como medidas del sentimiento de mercado respecto a la dirección de los posibles movimientos de cambio y de la ocurrencia de eventos extremos, respectivamente. Estas medidas pueden ser entendidas como indicadores macroprudenciales forward looking para el sistema financiero doméstico. Los resultados obtenidos del mercado de opciones se comparan con las densidades oriundas de los surveys realizados con economistas de mercado por el Banco Central de Brasil, y se concluye que ambos poseen información relevante. La metodología empleada puede ser generalizada y aplicada a contratos de opciones con plazos más largos y a otros activos.In this paper we extract risk neutral density probabilities for the Brazilian domestic exchange rate, from exchange rate options negotiated in the Brazilian market between 2000 and 2005. The focus is on implied volatility, skewness and kurtosis. Implied volatility and the forecasted density can be used to evaluate market expectations regarding the future evolution of exchange rate in the financial market. Implied skewness and kurtosis can be interpreted as measures of sentiment regarding the direction of changes and the occurrence of extreme events, respectively. These measures can be seen as forward-looking macroprudential indicators for the domestic financial system. The results obtained from the options market are compared with the density from surveys conducted with market economists by the Central Bank of Brazil, as we conclude that both expectations contain relevant information. The methodology of this paper can be generalized and applied to longer-term contracts and to different types of assets

BIOMECHANICAL ANALYSIS OF BACK-SOMERSAULT KICKS IN TAEKWONDO

This study was purposed to investigate biomechanical differences between best and worst trials in performing back-somersault kicks in Taekwondo. Six elite members of college Taekwondo demonstration team participated in this study and executed each ten trials of single back-somersault kick and double back-somersault kick, respectively. High speed motion capturing system collected positions of 21 markers on major anatomical locations to obtain motion data of full body segments. After post-processing procedure, results showed that the best trial of back-somersault kicks indicated longer preparation time (countermovement), larger range of motions of hip joint, and higher peak angular velocities of knee and hip joints prior to take-off than those of the worst trial. We concluded that athletes should avoid a quick countermovement before take-off, which induces insufficient strain energy of lower extremities and ground reaction impulse. Therefore, a sufficient time for muscle contractions are required to develop high power

Electro-acupuncture at acupoint ST36 reduces inflammation and regulates immune activity in Collagen-Induced Arthritic Mice

This study aimed to investigate the anti-inflammatory, anti-arthritic and immuno-regulatory effects of electro-acupuncture (EA) at ST36 on Collagen-induced arthritis (CIA) in mice. Male DBA/1J mice were divided into five groups: Normal, Control, NR (needle retention), EAI and EAII. All mice except those in the normal group were immunized with Collagen II for arthritis induction. Acupuncture needles were inserted into mice ST36 and electrical currents at a frequency of 2 Hz in a continuous rectangular wave form were conducted through the needles for 15 min, 3 times a week. EA treatments were administered for 5 weeks in the EAI group and for 9 weeks in the EAII group. The mice in the NR group were acupunctured in the same manner as the EA groups and the needles were retained for 15 min without electrical stimulation. CIA incidence analysis, ELISA, histological analysis and FACS analysis were performed to evaluate the effect of EA on CIA. EA at ST36 significantly reduced CIA incidence, IL-6, TNF-a, INF-γ, collagen II antibody, IgG and IgM levels in CIA mice serum and prevented knee joint destruction. EA at ST36 also reduced CD69+/CD3e+ cells and CD11a+/CD19+ cells in CIA mice lymph nodes, and CD11b+/Gr1+ cells in CIA mice knee joints. The ratios of CD3e+ cells to CD19+ cells, and CD8+ cells to CD4+ cells were maintained closer to the normal range in the EA groups as compared with the control group or the NR group. EAII was more effective than EAI throughout all the measurements. The NR was effective as well, though less effective than EA. EA at ST36 may have an anti-inflammatory, anti-arthritic and immuno-regulatory effects on CIA in mice. The effectiveness is stronger when EA starts earlier and is applied longer. Needle retention without electrical stimulation may be effective on CIA as well, however less effective than EA. Electrical stimulation and acupoint ST36 may have synergistic effects on CIA

Treatment response with potassium-competitive acid blockers based on clinical phenotypes of gastroesophageal reflux disease: A systematic literature review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is typically managed based on the clinical phenotype. We evaluated the efficacy and safety of potassium-competitive acid blockers (PCABs) in patients with various clinical GERD phenotypes. METHODS: Core databases were searched for studies comparing PCABs and proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) in clinical GERD phenotypes of erosive reflux disease (ERD), non-erosive reflux disease (NERD), PPI-resistant GERD and night-time heartburn. Additional analysis was performed based on disease severity and drug dosage, and pooled efficacy was calculated. RESULTS: In 9 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating the initial treatment of ERD, the risk ratio for healing with PCABs versus PPIs was 1.09 (95% CI, 1.04-1.13) at 2 weeks and 1.03 (95% CI, 1.00-1.07) at 8 weeks, respectively. PCABs exhibited a significant increase in both initial and sustained healing of ERD compared to PPIs in RCTs, driven particularly in severe ERD (Los Angeles grade C/D). In 3 NERD RCTs, PCAB was superior to placebo in proportion of days without heartburn. Observational studies on PPI-resistant symptomatic GERD reported symptom frequency improvement in 86.3% of patients, while 90.7% showed improvement in PPIresistant ERD across 5 observational studies. Two RCTs for night-time heartburn had different endpoints, limiting meta-analysis. Pronounced hypergastrinemia was observed in patients treated with PCABs. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to PPIs, PCABs have superior efficacy and faster therapeutic effect in the initial and maintenance therapy of ERD, particularly severe ERD. While PCABs may be an alternative treatment option in NERD and PPI-resistant GERD, findings were inconclusive in patients with night-time heartburn

A Case of Hypersensitivity to Mosquito Bite Associated with Epstein-Barr Viral Infection and Natural Killer Cell Lymphocytosis

Hypersensitivity to mosquito bites (HMB) is a disorder characterized by a necrotic skin reaction and generalized symptoms subsequent to mosquito bites. It has been suggested that HMB is associated with chronic Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection and natural killer cell leukemia/lymphoma. We describe here a Korean child who had HMB associated with chronic EBV infection and natural killer cell lymphocytosis. A 5-yr-old boy was suffered from necrotic skin lesions on the right ear lobe. Type A EB virus was detected from hlood cells and bone marrow biospy recognized hemophagocyrosis