Semi-parametric Expected Shortfall Forecasting

Intra-day sources of data have proven effective for dynamic volatility and tail risk estimation. Expected shortfall is a tail risk measure, that is now recommended by the Basel Committee, involving a conditional expectation that can be semi-parametrically estimated via an asymmetric sum of squares function. The conditional autoregressive expectile class of model, used to indirectly model expected shortfall, is generalised to incorporate information on the intra-day range. An asymmetric Gaussian density model error formulation allows a likelihood to be developed that leads to semiparametric estimation and forecasts of expectiles, and subsequently of expected shortfall. Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling schemes are employed for estimation, while their performance is assessed via a simulation study. The proposed models compare favourably with a large range of competitors in an empirical study forecasting seven financial return series over a ten year period

Thrombolysis with tissue plasminogen activator in acute myocardial infarction: no additional benefit from immediate percutaneous coronary angioplasty

A randomised trial of 367 patients with acute myocardial infarction was performed to determine whether an invasive strategy combining thrombolysis with recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator (rTPA), heparin, and acetylsalicylic acid, and immediate percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) would be superior to a noninvasive strategy with the same medical treatment but without immediate angiography and PTCA. Intravenous infusion of 100 mg rTPA was started within 5 h after onset of symptoms (median 156 min). Angiography was performed 6-165 min later in 180 out of 183 patients allocated to the invasive strategy; 184 patients were allocated to the non-invasive strategy. Immediate PTCA reduced the percentage stenosis of the infarc

Stagnating influenza vaccine coverage rates among high-risk groups in Poland and Sweden in 2003/4 and 2004/5.

This paper examines influenza vaccine coverage rates (VCR) in Poland and Sweden during the 2003/4 and 2004/5 influenza seasons. An average sample of 2,500 persons was interviewed in each country and each season. Questions regarded age and possible chronic diseases, as well as information on whether they had had an influenza vaccination in the given season. Those who had not received the vaccine were also asked to give reasons for non-vaccination. About one in four (Sweden) to one in three (Poland) of the persons surveyed belonged to high-risk groups (>=65 years of age or suffering from chronic diseases). In the 2004/5 season, 17% (CI 12-19%) of the Polish elderly and 45% (CI 39-50%) of the Swedish elderly were vaccinated. In Poland, 9% (CI 7-12%) of respondents younger than 65 years of age with a chronic condition were vaccinated, whereas in Sweden the corresponding rate was 12% (CI 9-16%). In both countries, the VCR did not change significantly from the previous season. Personal invitations resulted in a higher VCR. In Sweden, the most frequently mentioned reasons for not being vaccinated were the assumption of not qualifying for a vaccination and perceived resistance. In Poland in both years, perceived resistance to flu and the cost of the vaccination were the most often mentioned reasons. The influenza vaccination rates in Poland and Sweden remain far below World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations for the high-risk population. No increase in VCR as demonstrated in this study may indicate that these two countries will not be able to meet the 2010 WHO target, if no further action is taken concerning vaccine uptake. (aut. ref.

What do we know about influenza vaccine uptake in Europe?

In Europe, influenza vaccination of the elderly and other high-risk populations is seen as an important practice, it is both life- and costsaving. All European countries have influenza vaccination recommendations for high-risk groups. Despite these recommendations there is considerable variation in influenza vaccine uptake rates between European countries. This observation motivated ESWI to initiate a study. The study was performed by the Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL) in cooperation with the European Influenza Surveillance Scheme (EISS). The first part of the study was an inventory of the availability of uptake figures among European countries, while the second part studied the feasibility of a population survey to determine uptake rates