Sectoral low-carbon roadmaps and the role of forest biomass in Finland's carbon neutrality 2035 target

As a part of its climate policy, Finnish government facilitated the creation of low-carbon roadmaps by sectors of industry. The roadmap process and the roadmaps were promoted as an international benchmark in COP26. They also form a part of the policy process towards the government's goal of carbon neutrality by 2035. We analyse the need and role of biomass use contained in the roadmaps of the key sectors and compare it to data on available forest biomass. The combined need for forest biomass in the roadmaps is well over 140 Mm(3), which is over double that of the logging level in 2019, and drastically over the roadmaps' projection of future sustainable yield. This creates a challenge for the carbon neutrality goal via the loss of carbon sinks in forests, risking the carbon neutrality target and other sustainability goals. Although, up to date, the roadmaps present the most detailed picture of industrial transformation towards carbon neutrality in an EU member state, they are made unrealistic by the omission of a comprehensive material perspective. The addition of such a perspective and a clear setting of boundaries would increase the viability of the roadmaps as a policy tool.Peer reviewe

Mammalian body size evolution was shaped by habitat transitions as an indirect effect of climate change

Aim: Body size evolution has long been hypothesized to have been driven by factors linked to climate change, but the specific mechanisms are difficult to disentangle due to the wide range of functional traits that covary with body size. In this study, we investigated the impact of regional habitat changes as a potential indirect effect of climate change on body size evolution. Location: Europe and North America. Time period: The Neogene (similar to 23-2 million years ago). Major taxa: Five orders of terrestrial mammals: Artiodactyla, Carnivora, Perissodactyla, Proboscidea and Primates. Methods: We compared the two continental faunas, which have exceptional fossil records of terrestrial mammals and underwent different processes of habitat transition during the Neogene. Using Bayesian multilevel regression models, we assessed the variation in the temporal dynamics of body size diversity among ecographic groups, defined by their continent of occurrence and dietary preference. Results: Model comparisons unanimously supported a combined effect of diet and continent on all metrics of body size frequency distributions, rejecting the shared energetic advantage of larger bodies in colder climates as a dominant mechanism of body size evolution. Rather, the diet-specific dynamics on each continent pinpointed an indirect effect of climate change - change in habitat availability, and thus the resource landscape as a key driver of mammalian evolution. Main conclusions: Our study highlights dietary preference as a mechanistic link between mammalian evolution and habitat transition mediating an indirect climate-change effect and demonstrates the complexity of climatic influence on biodiversity. Our findings suggest that the intensified habitat modification today likely poses a bigger threat than climate change in itself to living mammals, and perhaps all endotherms.Peer reviewe

Teollinen murros ekohyvinvointivaltiossa: Mitä teollisuuden vähähiilitiekartat kertovat suomalaisen kestävyysmurroksen edellytyksistä?

Peer reviewe

Reorganization of surviving mammal communities after the end-Pleistocene megafaunal extinction

Large mammals are at high risk of extinction globally. To understand the consequences of their demise for community assembly, we tracked community structure through the end- Pleistocene megafaunal extinction in North America.We decomposed the effects of biotic and abiotic factors by analyzing co-occurrence within the mutual ranges of species pairs. Although shifting climate drove an increase in niche overlap, co-occurrence decreased, signaling shifts in biotic interactions. Furthermore, the effect of abiotic factors on cooccurrence remained constant over time while the effect of biotic factors decreased. Biotic factors apparently played a key role in continental-scale community assembly before the extinctions. Specifically, large mammals likely promoted co-occurrence in the Pleistocene, and their loss contributed to the modern assembly pattern in which co-occurrence frequently falls below random expectations. Includes supplementary materials

Reorganization of surviving mammal communities after the end-Pleistocene megafaunal extinction

Large mammals are at high risk of extinction globally. To understand the consequences of their demise for community assembly, we tracked community structure through the end-Pleistocene megafaunal extinction in North America. We decomposed the effects of biotic and abiotic factors by analyzing co-occurrence within the mutual ranges of species pairs. Although shifting climate drove an increase in niche overlap, co-occurrence decreased, signaling shifts in biotic interactions. Furthermore, the effect of abiotic factors on co-occurrence remained constant over time while the effect of biotic factors decreased. Biotic factors apparently played a key role in continental-scale community assembly before the extinctions. Specifically, large mammals likely promoted co-occurrence in the Pleistocene, and their loss contributed to the modern assembly pattern in which co-occurrence frequently falls below random expectations.Peer reviewe

Investigating Biotic Interactions in Deep Time

Recent renewed interest in using fossil data to understand how biotic interactions have shaped the evolution of life is challenging the widely held assumption that long-term climate changes are the primary drivers of biodiversity change. New approaches go beyond traditional richness and co-occurrence studies to explicitly model biotic interactions using data on fossil and modern biodiversity. Important developments in three primary areas of research include analysis of (i) macroevolutionary rates, (ii) the impacts of and recovery from extinction events, and (iii) how humans (Homo sapiens) affected interactions among non-human species. We present multiple lines of evidence for an important and measurable role of biotic interactions in shaping the evolution of communities and lineages on long timescales.Peer reviewe

Late quaternary biotic homogenization of North American mammalian faunas

Biotic homogenization-increasing similarity of species composition among ecological communities-has been linked to anthropogenic processes operating over the last century. Fossil evidence, however, suggests that humans have had impacts on ecosystems for millennia. We quantify biotic homogenization of North American mammalian assemblages during the late Pleistocene through Holocene (similar to 30,000 ybp to recent), a timespan encompassing increased evidence of humans on the landscape (similar to 20,000-14,000 ybp). From similar to 10,000 ybp to recent, assemblages became significantly more homogenous (>100% increase in Jaccard similarity), a pattern that cannot be explained by changes in fossil record sampling. Homogenization was most pronounced among mammals larger than 1 kg and occurred in two phases. The first followed the megafaunal extinction at similar to 10,000 ybp. The second, more rapid phase began during human population growth and early agricultural intensification (similar to 2,000-1,000 ybp). We show that North American ecosystems were homogenizing for millennia, extending human impacts back similar to 10,000 years.Peer reviewe

Late quaternary biotic homogenization of North American mammalian faunas

Biotic homogenization-increasing similarity of species composition among ecological communities-has been linked to anthropogenic processes operating over the last century. Fossil evidence, however, suggests that humans have had impacts on ecosystems for millennia. We quantify biotic homogenization of North American mammalian assemblages during the late Pleistocene through Holocene (similar to 30,000 ybp to recent), a timespan encompassing increased evidence of humans on the landscape (similar to 20,000-14,000 ybp). From similar to 10,000 ybp to recent, assemblages became significantly more homogenous (>100% increase in Jaccard similarity), a pattern that cannot be explained by changes in fossil record sampling. Homogenization was most pronounced among mammals larger than 1 kg and occurred in two phases. The first followed the megafaunal extinction at similar to 10,000 ybp. The second, more rapid phase began during human population growth and early agricultural intensification (similar to 2,000-1,000 ybp). We show that North American ecosystems were homogenizing for millennia, extending human impacts back similar to 10,000 years.Peer reviewe

A framework for evaluating the influence of climate, dispersal limitation, and biotic interactions using fossil pollen associations across the late Quaternary

Environmental conditions, dispersal lags, and interactions among species are major factors structuring communities through time and across space. Ecologists have emphasized the importance of biotic interactions in determining local patterns of species association. In contrast, abiotic limits, dispersal limitation, and historical factors have commonly been invoked to explain community structure patterns at larger spatiotemporal scales, such as the appearance of late Pleistocene no-analog communities or latitudinal gradients of species richness in both modern and fossil assemblages. Quantifying the relative influence of these processes on species co-occurrence patterns is not straightforward. We provide a framework for assessing causes of species associations by combining a null-model analysis of co-occurrence with additional analyses of climatic differences and spatial pattern for pairs of pollen taxa that are significantly associated across geographic space. We tested this framework with data on associations among 106 fossil pollen taxa and paleoclimate simulations from eastern North America across the late Quaternary. The number and proportion of significantly associated taxon pairs increased over time, but only 449 of 56 194 taxon pairs were significantly different from random. Within this significant subset of pollen taxa, biotic interactions were rarely the exclusive cause of associations. Instead, climatic or spatial differences among sites were most frequently associated with significant patterns of taxon association. Most taxon pairs that exhibited co-occurrence patterns indicative of biotic interactions at one time did not exhibit significant associations at other times. Evidence for environmental filtering and dispersal limitation was weakest for aggregated pairs between 16 and 11 kyr BP, suggesting enhanced importance of positive species interactions during this interval. The framework can thus be used to identify species associations that may reflect biotic interactions because these associations are not tied to environmental or spatial differences. Furthermore, temporally repeated analyses of spatial associations can reveal whether such associations persist through time

Comprehensive Security : The Opportunities and Challenges of Incorporating Environmental Threats in Security Policy

In security and foreign policy discourse, environmental issues have been discussed increasingly as security threats that require immediate action. Yet, as the traditional security sector does not provide straightforward means to deal with climate change and other environmental issues, this has prompted concerns over undue securitisation and ill-placed extreme measures. We argue that an effective policy to address foreseeable environmental security threats can only be developed and maintained by ensuring that it remains resolutely within the domain of civil society. In this article, we consider the case of Finland, where the policy concept of comprehensive security has been presented as the official guideline for security and preparedness activities in different sectors. Comprehensive security aims to safeguard the vital functions of society through cooperation between authorities, business operators, organisations, and citizens. We analyse the opportunities and challenges of Finland's comprehensive security policy in addressing environmental changes through a three-level framework of local, geopolitical and structural security impacts. Our empirical evidence is based on a set of expert interviews (n = 40) that represent a wide range of fields relevant to unconventional security issues. We find that the Finnish comprehensive security model provides an example of a wide and inclusive perspective to security which would allow for taking into account environmental security concerns. However, due to major challenges in the implementation of the model, it does not fully incorporate the long-term, cross-sectoral, and cascading aspects of environmental threats. This weakens Finland's preparedness against climate change which currently poses some of the most urgent environmental security problems.Peer reviewe