Short-run dynamics and long-run effects of demographic change on public debt and the budget

The German population is aging. Since fewer children are born and simultaneously life expectancy rises, demographic changes will lead to a double aging process. The paper analyzes the effects of demographic changes on national debt and the public budget by applying a cointegration analysis to global budget variables. Our procedure which covers the period between 1950 and 1990 completes prevailing projections, emphasizing that low vital rates are not the basic problem but the long-run trend of decreasing fertility and mortality rates. The estimation results of several error- correction models show that in the long-run an increase in the old age dependency ratio, and a decrease in the reproduction rate will lead to higher public expenditures. As regards public revenue, the results are ambivalent. The change in the age structure results in higher tax revenue, whereas the decline of population has the opposite effect. Furthermore, we find empirical evidence that aging increases the debt ratio. This development counters current efforts to reduce the public debt share of production potential and the tax load ratio. As a consequence, more action is needed to improve Germanys competiveness as a business location. Compared to these long-run effects, the short-run dynamics is only of minor importance. Significant parameter estimates can be found mainly in the model for the social security contribution rate. --

Demographische Effekte auf die zukünftigen Behandlungsausgaben der GKV

In this paper we predict the pure demographic effect on medical expenditure of the German Statutory Health Insurance Scheme. To isolate this effect, we assume that the age-specific expenditure for medical treatment as observed in 1991 remains constant over the whole prediction period (1991 until 2030). Our estimates show that ceteris paribus the double aging of population increases the (average) per-capita medical expenditure by 18,6 percent. This increase and the decline of labour force plus the simultaneous steep rise in the number of retired people will lead to an' increasing financial burden on working people. --

Health, health care, and the environment: econometric evidence from German micro data

The paper develops and applies a Grossman-style health production model set up in discrete time to explain the impact of environmental pollution on the demand for both health and health care. In order to introduce the environment, our analysis takes changes in environmental conditions to influence the rate at which an individual's stock of health depreciates. While the theoretical part of our paper also contains a discussion of the full model, we restrict our analysis to a submodel which is known as the pure investment model. lbis is because the other submodel, the pure consumption model, implies a rather implausible case of satiation with respect to the individual's preferences. Our empirical findings' are based on data taken from the German Socio-economic Panel (SOEP). The stock of health capital and environmental pollution are treated as latent variables and estimated using a LINCS model. The quality of the environment turns out to be an important determinant of health capital. From the point of view of health economics, improvements in environmental conditions can be interpreted as preventive measures. In terms of prevention, public policies designed to protect the environment also yield significant health effects. As regards health care demand the influence is not dearcut, i.e. one cannot necessarily expect a reduction in resource use. --

Der langfristige Zusammenhang zwischen demographischen und budgetären Variablen

The German population is aging. Since fewer children are born and simultaneously life expectancy rises, demographic changes will lead to a double aging process. The paper analyzes the effects of demographic changes on the public budget by applying a cointegration analysis to global budget variables. Our procedure, which covers the period between 1950 and 1990, adds to prevailing projections, emphasizing that low vital rates are not the problem but their development over time. The estimation results of several error-correction-models show, that in the long-run an increase in the old age dependency ratio and a decline in the reproduction rate will lead to higher public expenditures. As regards public revenues, the results are ambivalent. The change in the age structures results in higher tax revenues, while the decline of population has the opposite effect. Furthermore, we find empirical evidence that aging increases the debt ratio. Compared to these long-run effects, the short-run dynamics is only of minor importance. Significant parameter estimates can be found mainly in the model for the social security contribution rate. Simulating the development of this rate on basis of an error-correction-model for the next four decades shows, that aging will further increase the tax load ratio and financing pay-as-you-go-systems will become more difficult. Nevertheless, there are a number of instruments the government can take to absorb these negative effects and to limit the burden to future generations. --

Regulierung der nationalen Pharmamärkte in der Europäischen Gemeinschaft

In this paper we give an overview of government regulations in the national drug markets of the European Community. We describe the admission of new medicines to the market, the organisation of the distribution system, the control of pharmaceutical prices, and the patient copayment schemes for out-of-hospital prescriptions. --

Zum Begriff der Regulierung: Gegenstand, Träger und Methoden

Regulation has been and still is often discussed in economic theory and politics. Despite this, papers analyzing regulatory measures lack a definition of the term or employ widely differing concepts. In order to remedy this neglect, we give a short survey of various definitions of regulation. Thereupon we consider objects of regulation, institutions responsible for regulation, and methods of regulation as three central aspects which contribute to a systematic description of the term. --

Die Entwicklung der Steuern und Sozialabgaben - ein internationaler Vergleich

Diese Studie zeigt die Entwicklung von Steuern und Sozialabgaben für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland seit 1950 (Kapitel 2.1), wobei bei den Sozialabgaben eine Untergliederung nach Sozialversicherungsträgern (Kapitel 2.2) und Beitragszahlern (Kapitel 2.3) erfolgt. Kapitel 2.4 zeigt die Bedeutung der Arbeitgeberpflichtbeiträge zur Sozialversicherung für die Arbeitskosten im Produzierenden Gewerbe und für ausgewählte Bereiche des Dienstleistungssektors. Kapitel 3 liefert einen internationalen Vergleich der Abgabenbelastung anhand von Daten der OECD-Einnahmenstatistik. Zum Vergleich mit Deutschland werden die Länder Frankreich, Großbritannien, Japan und die USA herangezogen, mit denen die Bundesrepublik in Europa und auf den anderen Weltmärkten konkurriert. Soweit dies möglich ist, erfolgt auch eine Darstellung der EU- und OECD-Durchschnittswerte. Der Vergleich dient dazu zu untersuchen, ob im Zeitablauf die Belastung der Gesamtwirtschaft mit gesetzlichen Abgaben in der Bundesrepublik in Relation zu den anderen Staaten zu- oder abgenommen hat bzw. unverändert geblieben ist. Dieser Vergleich liefert auch erste Erkenntnisse darüber, inwieweit die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Bundesrepublik gegenüber diesen Ländern aufgrund gesetzlicher Abgaben gelitten hat. Im Abschnitt 3.1 wird zunächst die Datenbasis für den internationalen Vergleich erläutert. Abschnitt 3.2 zeigt das Niveau der Abgabenbelastung in den einzelnen Staaten und Kapitel 3.3 geht auf die Struktur der Abgaben nach Steuern und Sozialabgaben ein. Kapitel 3.4 zeigt die Aufteilung der Sozialabgaben nach Beitragszahlern und Abschnitt 3.5 gibt die Pro-Kopf-Belastung in den einzelnen Ländern wieder

Zu den Effekten von Gesundheitsreform- und Gesundheitsstrukturgesetz auf den Arzneimittelmarkt: auf dem Weg von der korporativen zur staatlichen Regulierung?

From the viewpoint of regulation, this paper investigates the effects of both the Health Care Refonn Act (Gesundheitsreformgesetz, GRG) and the Structural Health Care Act (Gesundheitsstrukturgesetz, GSG) on phannaceutical markets. Apart from the change in the intensity of regulation, the main focus is on the relative significance of self-regulation (or corporatism) on the one hand, and govemment regulation on the other. As our analysis demonstrates, in contrast to GRG, the impact of GSG has been - at least temporarily - to shift emphasis away from corporatism towards regulation directly imposed by govemment. --

Demographische Effekte auf die zukünftigen Behandlungsausgaben und den zukünftigen Beitragssatz der GKV

This paper analyses the pure demographic effect on medical expenditure and the contribution rate of the German Statutory Health Insurance Scheme. To isolate this effect, we assume that the age-specific expenditure for medical treatment as estimated in 1995 remains constant over the whole prediction period (1995 until 2040). The estimates show that ceteris paribus the double aging of the German population increases (average) per-capita medical expenditure about 20 percent. The corresponding increase in the (average) contribution rate sums up to approximately 3 percentage points. --

Die Ausgestaltung der internationalen Kreditaufsicht und Möglichkeiten der Weiterentwicklung

Die vorliegende Arbeit verknüpft empirische und theoretische Erkenntniselemente über die Entwicklung der öffentlichen Personalausgaben mit Hilfe einer Kausalitätsanalyse. Die Studie setzt bei der Entwicklung der Personalausgaben und ihrer Komponenten an und stellt anschließend einige theoretische Ansätze dar, die Aussagen zur relativen Entwicklung der Personalausgaben beinhalten. Die Integration von theoretischen und empirischen Aspekten geschieht im Zuge einer Überprüfung von Preisstruktureffekt und Folgelastenhypothese