Demographische Effekte auf die zukünftigen Behandlungsausgaben der GKV

Abstract

In this paper we predict the pure demographic effect on medical expenditure of the German Statutory Health Insurance Scheme. To isolate this effect, we assume that the age-specific expenditure for medical treatment as observed in 1991 remains constant over the whole prediction period (1991 until 2030). Our estimates show that ceteris paribus the double aging of population increases the (average) per-capita medical expenditure by 18,6 percent. This increase and the decline of labour force plus the simultaneous steep rise in the number of retired people will lead to an' increasing financial burden on working people. --