Pass-Through in Retail and Wholesale

This paper studies how prices comove across products, firms and locations to gauge the relative importance of retailer versus manufacturer-level shocks in determining prices. I make use of a large panel data set on prices for a cross-section of retailers in the U.S. I analyze prices at the barcode or "Universal Product Code'' (UPC) level for individual stores. I find that only 16% of the variation in prices is common across stores selling an identical product. 65% of the price variation is common to stores within a particular retail chain (but not across retail chains), while 17% is completely idiosyncratic to the store and product. Product categories with frequent temporary "sales'' exhibit a disproportionate amount of completely idiosyncratic price variation. My results suggest that most of the observed price variation arises from retail-level rather than manufacturer-level demand and supply shocks. However, the behavior of prices is difficult to relate to observed variation in costs and demand at the retail level. This suggests that retail prices may vary largely as a consequence of dynamic pricing strategies on the part of retailers or manufacturers, rather than static demand and supply shocks.

Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters

We estimate an empirical model of consumption disasters using a new panel data set on personal consumer expenditure for 24 countries and more than 100 years, and study its implications for asset prices. The model allows for permanent and transitory effects of disasters that unfold over multiple years. It also allows the timing of disasters to be correlated across countries. Our estimates imply that the average disaster reaches its trough after 6 years, with a peak-to-trough drop in consumption of about 30%, but that roughly half of this decline is reversed in a subsequent recovery. Uncertainty about consumption growth increases dramatically during disasters. Our estimated model generates a sizable equity premium from disaster risk, but one that is substantially smaller than in models in which disasters are permanent and instantaneous. It yields new predictions for the dynamics of risk-free interest rates, the term structure of interest rates, and the pricing of short-term versus long-term risky assets. The persistence of consumption declines in our model implies that a large value of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is necessary to explain stock-market crashes at the onset of disasters.

Monetary Non-Neutrality in a Multi-Sector Menu Cost Model

Empirical evidence suggests that as much as 1/3 of the U.S. business cycle is due to nominal shocks. We calibrate a multi-sector menu cost model using new evidence on the cross-sectional distribution of the frequency and size of price changes in the U.S. economy. We augment the model to incorporate intermediate inputs. We show that the introduction of heterogeneity in the frequency of price change triples the degree of monetary non-neutrality generated by the model. We furthermore show that the introduction of intermediate inputs raises the degree of monetary non-neutrality by another factor of three, without adversely affecting the model's ability to match the large average size of price changes. Our multi-sector menu cost model with intermediate inputs generates variation in real output in response to calibrated aggregate nominal shocks that can account for roughly 23% of the U.S. business cycle.

Women, wealth effects, and slow recoveries

Business cycle recoveries have slowed in recent decades. This slow-down comes entirely from female employment, as women's employment rates converged toward men's during the past half-century. But does the slowdown in the growth of female employment rates translate into a slowdown for overall employment rates? We estimate the extent to which women "crowd out" men in the labor market across US states, and find that it is small. Through the lens of a general equilibrium model with home production, we show this statistic implies that 60–75 percent of the slowdown in recent business cycle recoveries can be explained by female convergence.First author draf

Accounting for Incomplete Pass-Through

Recent theoretical work has suggested a number of potentially important factors in causing incomplete pass-through of exchange rates to prices, including markup adjustment, local costs and barriers to price adjustment. We empirically analyze the determinants of incomplete passthrough in the coee industry. The observed pass-through in this industry replicates key features of pass-through documented in aggregate data: prices respond sluggishly and incompletely to changes in costs. We use microdata on sales and prices to uncover the role of markup adjustment, local costs, and barriers to price adjustment in determining incomplete pass-through using a structural oligopoly model that nests all three potential factors. The implied pricing model explains the main dynamic features of short and long-run pass-through. Local costs reduce long-run pass-through by a factor of 59% relative to a CES benchmark. Markup adjustment reduces pass-through by an additional factor of 33%, where the extent of markup adjustment depends on the estimated \super-elasticity" of demand. The estimated menu costs are small (0:23% of revenue) and have a negligible eect on long-run pass-through, but are quantitatively successful in explaining the delayed response of prices to costs. We nd that delayed passthrough in the coee industry occurs almost entirely at the wholesale rather than the retail level

The Optimal Prepregnancy Body Mass Index for Lactation in Japanese Women with Neonatal Separation as Analyzed by a Differential Equation

We used a differential equation to identify the biological relationship between the maternal prepregnancy body mass index (BMI) and lactation on postpartum day 4 in Japanese women with neonatal separation. This retro-spective observational study included 252 mothers (135 primiparas, 117 multiparas) whose singleton neonates were admitted to a neonatal ICU. We formulated hypotheses based on breast anatomy to analyze the relation-ship between the expressed milk obtained on postpartum day 4 and the maternal prepregnancy BMI with the following differential equation: y’(x) = k y(x)/x, where k is the constant, x is the prepregnancy BMI, and y is the expressed milk volume. The formula was then obtained as y(x) = axk, where a is the constant. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to estimate the regression equation with the maximum likelihood for primiparas and multiparas. The best criteria for BMI determined by the AIC were 20.89 kg/m2 in primiparas and 20.19 kg/m2 in multiparas. These were the optimal BMI values for lactation, coinciding with the median prepregnancy BMI in the study population (20.78 kg/m2 in primiparas and 20.06 kg/m2 in multiparas). The formula based on biomathematics might help establish the biological relationship between prepregnancy BMI and breastmilk volume

メロンとキュウリのＡＣＣ合成酵素遺伝子の構造的特徴とＧＵＳトランジェントアッセイによるプロモーター活性

In orader to clarify the differences in regulatory mechanism(s) of the expression of 1-aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylate(ACC) synthase(ACS)genes during ripening in climacteric melon fruit and non-climacteric cucumber fruit, two sets of their genomic DNA sequences, including ca. 2kb of the promoter regions were determined, using PCR-based methods. ACS genes from melon (CMe-ACS1,2) were structurally similar to their counterpart from cucumber (CS-ACS1,2) in terms of size and position of exons and introns, restriction map, and sequencd identity of exeons, introns, proximal 5'-flanking promoter regions and splice junction. Southern blot analysis indicated that each ACS gene is present as a single copy. Transient promoter activity was investigated with two constructs of promoter-β-glucuronidase (GUS) fusion, CMe-ACS1:GUS and CS-ACS1:GUS, in mature mesocarp tissue of the two fruits. In melon disks, GUS activities conferred by the promoters of both CS-ACS1 (-2098～+42) and CMe-ACS-1(-2187～+67) were detected, which were decreased by treatment with 1-methylcyclopropene(1-MCP), an ethylene action inhibitor. In cucumber disks, however, only CS-ACS1:GUS was expressed; the activity was decreased with 1-MCP, and it was not affected by propylene. These results suggest that the promoter of CS-ACS1 has a potential to be expressed in the mesocarp tissue of ripening melon fruit, and that the difference in ethylene biosynthesis between melon and cucumber during ripening may be due to the difference in capability of forming trans-acting factor(s), not due to their ACS1 promoter activities.クライマクテリック型果実のメロンとノンクライマクテリック型果実のキュウリの果実追熟に伴う１-アミ ノシクロプロパン-１-カルボン酸（ACC）合成酵素（ACS）遺伝子の発現調節機構の相違を明らかにするた めに，それぞれ２種類のACSのゲムノDNA配列（約２kb）をPCR法を基にして決定した．メロンのACS 遺伝子は，エキソンとイントロンのサイズおよび位置，制限酵素地図，エキソン・イントロン・近位の５’上 流プロモーター領域・スプライシング部位の塩基配列において，それぞれ対応するキュウリのACS遺伝子 とよく似た構造をしていた．サザンブロック解析の結果，各ACS遺伝子はシングルコピーとして存在する と考えられた．CMe-ACS1とCS-ACS1の一過的プロモーター活性をβ-グルクロニダーゼ（GUS）をレポ ーター遺伝子として両果実の成熟果肉を用いて調べた．メロン切片では，CS-ACS1（－2098～＋42）なら びにCMe-ACS1（－2187～＋67）のプロモーター発現によるGUS活性が検出され，エチレン作用阻害剤 の１-メチルシクロプロペン（１-MCP）処理によって減少した．しかし，キュウリ切片においては，CS-ACS1： GUSのみでGUSが発現し，活性は１-MCP処理で減少し，プロピレン処理ではコントロールと同レベル であった．これらの結果より，CS-ACS1のプロモーターがメロン成熟果肉組織で発現する潜在能力をもつ こと，メロンとキュウリの成熟に伴うエチレン生合成の相違はACS1プロモーター活性によるものではなく， 両者のトランス因子合成能の相違によることが示唆された

Nutritional Intakes of Obese Elementary School Children Residing in the Shimokita Peninsula of Aomori, Japan

This research examined the lifestyles and eating habits of 42 elementary school fifth graders(20 boys and 22 girls) over a 3-day period; these children resided in theShimokita Peninsula, Aomori prefecture, which has the highest childhood obesityrate in Japan. The children’s nutritionalintakes were recorded via questionnaires and self-documented meal recorddiaries overa 3-day period (1 weekday and the weekend). The meal record diaries recorded which meals the children ate (including snacks) during the 3-day period. A regular feature of these children’s lifestyle was theviewing of at least 3 hours of television per day. Compared with the National Health and Nutrition Survey conductedby the Japanese government, the nutritionaland energy intake levels were the same but when we examined food group intakes,the vegetable intake was lower on weekends in comparison to the weekdays whenthe children were provided school lunches. In addition, salt intake exceededthe recommended standard in more than 80% of the study sample. We suggest thatthe pattern of reduced vegetable intake juxtaposed with high salt intake stemsfrom childhood and is repeated and passed down through generations; therefore, theguardians of these children require nutritional guidance and education

High Incubation Investment of Females Paired to Attractive Males in Barn Swallows

Differential parental investment is the sexual selection process in which females that have acquired an attractive male invest relatively more in his offspring than females that are paired to an unattractive male. However, it is often difficult to distinguish between differential parental investment and compensation for a decrease in parental investment by an attractive mate. Using Barn Swallows Hirundo rustica gutturalis, in which males rarely participate in incubation, we investigated differential incubation investment of females. We made the following four observations: (1) Females participate in 94% of total nest attentiveness (time that eggs were incubated). (2) Female nest attentiveness was positively correlated with the ornamentation of their mates, the size of white spots in the tail, which is a measure of male attractiveness in this population. (3) Male nest attentiveness was not related to male ornaments. (4) Total nest attentiveness was positively correlated with the size of white spots in the tail. These results are consistent with differential parental investment, but not with compensation for a decrease in parental investment by a mate. Therefore, we conclude that female Barn Swallows that have acquired an attractive male invest differentially in incubation