A machine learning approach for efficient uncertainty quantification using multiscale methods

Several multiscale methods account for sub-grid scale features using coarse scale basis functions. For example, in the Multiscale Finite Volume method the coarse scale basis functions are obtained by solving a set of local problems over dual-grid cells. We introduce a data-driven approach for the estimation of these coarse scale basis functions. Specifically, we employ a neural network predictor fitted using a set of solution samples from which it learns to generate subsequent basis functions at a lower computational cost than solving the local problems. The computational advantage of this approach is realized for uncertainty quantification tasks where a large number of realizations has to be evaluated. We attribute the ability to learn these basis functions to the modularity of the local problems and the redundancy of the permeability patches between samples. The proposed method is evaluated on elliptic problems yielding very promising results.Comment: Journal of Computational Physics (2017

Parametrization of stochastic inputs using generative adversarial networks with application in geology

We investigate artificial neural networks as a parametrization tool for stochastic inputs in numerical simulations. We address parametrization from the point of view of emulating the data generating process, instead of explicitly constructing a parametric form to preserve predefined statistics of the data. This is done by training a neural network to generate samples from the data distribution using a recent deep learning technique called generative adversarial networks. By emulating the data generating process, the relevant statistics of the data are replicated. The method is assessed in subsurface flow problems, where effective parametrization of underground properties such as permeability is important due to the high dimensionality and presence of high spatial correlations. We experiment with realizations of binary channelized subsurface permeability and perform uncertainty quantification and parameter estimation. Results show that the parametrization using generative adversarial networks is very effective in preserving visual realism as well as high order statistics of the flow responses, while achieving a dimensionality reduction of two orders of magnitude

The Effect of Shocks on the Current and Future Behavior of Sudan Economy: Autoregressive Moving-average Approach

This paper attempts to achieve two core objectives. Firstly, it aims to synthesize the information contained in the different expenditure components of GDP for developing a set of Autoregressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to examine the effect of shocks on the current and subsequent cyclical deviations of Sudan real GDP from what is trending. Secondly, it aims to compare the intensity of those cyclical deviations within the reviewed period (1970-2010) and outside it. ARMA models of different orders are experimented to distinguish, empirically, whether the effect of shocks is transient or permanent and lasts for a long period of time. The major result is that the lingering effect of shocks is permanent causing intensified deviation from the trend outside the reviewed period

Fast Computation of Smith Forms of Sparse Matrices Over Local Rings

We present algorithms to compute the Smith Normal Form of matrices over two families of local rings. The algorithms use the \emph{black-box} model which is suitable for sparse and structured matrices. The algorithms depend on a number of tools, such as matrix rank computation over finite fields, for which the best-known time- and memory-efficient algorithms are probabilistic. For an \nxn matrix $A$ over the ring \Fzfe, where $f^e$ is a power of an irreducible polynomial f \in \Fz of degree $d$, our algorithm requires \bigO(\eta de^2n) operations in \F, where our black-box is assumed to require \bigO(\eta) operations in \F to compute a matrix-vector product by a vector over \Fzfe (and $\eta$ is assumed greater than \Pden). The algorithm only requires additional storage for \bigO(\Pden) elements of \F. In particular, if \eta=\softO(\Pden), then our algorithm requires only \softO(n^2d^2e^3) operations in \F, which is an improvement on known dense methods for small $d$ and $e$. For the ring \ZZ/p^e\ZZ, where $p$ is a prime, we give an algorithm which is time- and memory-efficient when the number of nontrivial invariant factors is small. We describe a method for dimension reduction while preserving the invariant factors. The time complexity is essentially linear in $\mu n r e \log p,$ where $\mu$ is the number of operations in \ZZ/p\ZZ to evaluate the black-box (assumed greater than $n$) and $r$ is the total number of non-zero invariant factors. To avoid the practical cost of conditioning, we give a Monte Carlo certificate, which at low cost, provides either a high probability of success or a proof of failure. The quest for a time- and memory-efficient solution without restrictions on the number of nontrivial invariant factors remains open. We offer a conjecture which may contribute toward that end.Comment: Preliminary version to appear at ISSAC 201

A Review Paper: Electromagnetic Threats and the Protection

A review is given for the different aspects of Electromagnetic threats. The threats include the nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NEMP) and the high power microwave weapons (HEMP) These waves produce a high intensity electromagnetic field in a time up to few microseconds with frequencies which may extend to several Giga Hertz. This concentrated energy is capable of destroying or causing different sorts of damage to any electronic component if it couples to it. Modes of penetration to the electronic systems take place by a direct penetration through the holes, high currents induced on cables and antennas. Results are presented for the transient response of NEMP and HEMP for dipole and microstrip antennas, emphasizing the mechanism of pulse coupling to the antenna. Protection methods from such threats are presented