Evaluation of the Air Force’s Determination of the Military Value of the W.K. Kellogg Air Guard Station and the Potential Cost Savings Generated by its Closing

This is an evaluation of the methodology used by the Air Force in determining the military value of the W.K. Kellogg Air Guard Station and in estimating the potential costs savings generated by its proposed closing

A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship of future climate change and adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al.; O’Neill et al.; Kriegler et al.). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop and apply this framework. A key goal of the current framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change

Wrist-Worn devices to encourage affected upper limb movement in unilateral cerebral palsy: Participatory design workshops

Background: Unilateral (Hemiplegic) cerebral palsy (UCP) causes weakness and stiffness affecting one sided of the body, often impacting activities of daily living. Upper limb therapy at effective intensity is not accessible to most. Aim: To determine stakeholder views on design of an approach using wrist-worn devices and a smartphone application to encourage use of the affected upper limb for children with hemiplegia. Method: Four participatory design workshops and one young people's advisory group workshop incorporating views of five young people with hemiplegia, 13 typically developing peers aged 8–18 years, four parents, three occupational therapists, one teacher and two paediatricians. Two special educational needs co-ordinators were consulted separately. Peers were included to explore a study design whereby each child with hemiplegia would have a participating “buddy”. Topics included views on an acceptable wrist-worn device and smartphone application, participant age range, involvement of a buddy, and barriers to using the technology in a school setting. Ethical/welfare considerations included data security, and potential risks around providing smartphones to young children. Results: Children wanted a comfortable, conventional-appearing wristband incorporating a watch face and a secure, well-fitting strap. They were prepared to wear a band on each wrist. They wanted support with explaining the study to schoolteachers. Most schools restricted smartphone use during the school day: the study design accommodated this. Children agreed with a game as reward but had different views on an acceptable game; direct access to feedback data was preferred by some. Parents commented on the lack of access to upper limb therapy for children with UCP; therapists concurred. The proposed participant age range was widened based on feedback. Typically developing children were prepared to be buddies to help a friend with CP. Stakeholders were reassured by data security explanations and plans to provide internet safety information to participants. Conclusion: The participatory design process informed plans for the proof-of-concept stage of the study, hopefully leading to an approach that will be fun, easy to integrate into everyday life, and have the capacity to increase use of the affected arm and hand

The representative concentration pathways: An overview

This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m2. The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5 × 0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow climate modeling experiments through the year 2300. The RCPs are an important development in climate research and provide a potential foundation for further research and assessment, including emissions mitigation and impact analysis

Strombolian eruptions and dynamics of magma degassing at Yasur Volcano (Vanuatu)

Open vent basaltic volcanoes account for a substantial portion of the global atmospheric outgassing flux, largely through passive degassing and mild explosive activity. We present volcanic gas flux and composition data from Yasur Volcano, Vanuatu collected in July 2018. The average volcanic plume chemistry is characterised by a mean molar CO2/SO2 ratio of 2.14, H2O/SO2 of 148 and SO2/HCl of 1.02. The measured mean SO2 flux in the period of 6th to 9th July is 4.9 kg s−1. Therefore, the mean fluxes of the other species are 7.5 kg∙s−1 CO2, 208 kg∙s−1 H2O and 4.8 kg∙s−1 HCl. The degassing regime at Yasur volcano ranges from ‘passive’ to ‘active’ styles, with the latter including Strombolian activity and spattering. Gases emitted during active degassing are enriched in SO2 over HCl and CO2 over SO2 relative to passive degassing, with CO2/SO2 ratios of 2.85 ± 0.17, SO2/HCl of 1.6 ± 0.22, and H2O/SO2 of 315 ± 78.8. Gases emitted during passive degassing have CO2/SO2 ratios of 1.96 ± 0.12, SO2/HCl of 0.50 ± 0.07 and H2O/SO2 of 174 ± 43.5. We use a model of volatile degassing derived from melt inclusion studies (Metrich et al., 2011), combined with our observations of chemical variations in the outgassing bubbles to propose a mechanism for magma degassing in the conduit at Yasur. We envisage a shallow conduit filled with crystal-rich magma, forming a viscous and mobile plug that develops an effective yield strength from the surface to a depth of at least 2000 m, in which bubbles are trapped, grow, ascend towards the surface and burst in a typical Strombolian eruption. Deeper bubbles released during active degassing are enriched in CO2 and SO2 compared to bubbles released during ‘passive degassing’, which are sourced from close to the surface, and are, consequently, HCl-rich

REFINE (reduced frequency ImmuNE checkpoint inhibition in cancers): A multi-arm phase II basket trial testing reduced intensity immunotherapy across different cancers

Background Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) have revolutionised treating advanced cancers. ICI are administered intravenously every 2–6 weeks for up to 2 years, until cancer progression/unacceptable toxicity. Physiological efficacy is observed at lower doses than those used as standard of care (SOC). Pharmacodynamic studies indicate sustained target occupancy, despite a pharmacological half-life of 2–3 weeks. Reducing frequency of administration may be possible without compromising outcomes. The REFINE trial aims to limit individual patient exposure to ICI whilst maintaining efficacy, with potential benefits in quality of life and reduced drug treatment/attendance costs. Methods/Design REFINE is a randomised phase II, multi-arm, multi-stage (MAMS) adaptive basket trial investigating extended interval administration of ICIs. Eligible patients are those responding to conventionally dosed ICI at 12 weeks. In stage I, patients (n = 160 per tumour-specific cohort) will be randomly allocated (1:1) to receive maintenance ICI at SOC vs extended dose interval. REFINE is currently recruiting UK patients with locally advanced or metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) who have tolerated and responded to initial nivolumab/ipilimumab, randomised to receive maintenance nivolumab SOC (480 mg 4 weekly) vs extended interval (480 mg 8 weekly). Additional tumour cohorts are planned. Subject to satisfactory outcomes (progression-free survival) stage II will investigate up to 5 different treatment intervals. Secondary outcome measures include overall survival, quality-of-life, treatment-related toxicity, mean incremental pathway costs and quality-adjusted life-years per patient. REFINE is funded by the Jon Moulton Charity Trust and Medical Research Council, sponsored by University College London (UCL), and coordinated by the MRC CTU at UCL

Strombolian eruptions and dynamics of magma degassing at Yasur Volcano (Vanuatu)

Open vent basaltic volcanoes account for a substantial portion of the global atmospheric outgassing flux, largely through passive degassing and mild explosive activity. We present volcanic gas flux and composition data from Yasur Volcano, Vanuatu collected in July 2018. The average volcanic plume chemistry is characterised by a mean molar CO2/SO2 ratio of 2.14, H2O/SO2 of 148 and SO2/HCl of 1.02. The measured mean SO2 flux in the period of 6th to 9th July is 4.9 kg s−1. Therefore, the mean fluxes of the other species are 7.5 kg∙s−1 CO2, 208 kg∙s−1 H2O and 4.8 kg∙s−1 HCl. The degassing regime at Yasur volcano ranges from ‘passive’ to ‘active’ styles, with the latter including Strombolian activity and spattering. Gases emitted during active degassing are enriched in SO2 over HCl and CO2 over SO2 relative to passive degassing, with CO2/SO2 ratios of 2.85 ± 0.17, SO2/HCl of 1.6 ± 0.22, and H2O/SO2 of 315 ± 78.8. Gases emitted during passive degassing have CO2/SO2 ratios of 1.96 ± 0.12, SO2/HCl of 0.50 ± 0.07 and H2O/SO2 of 174 ± 43.5. We use a model of volatile degassing derived from melt inclusion studies (Metrich et al., 2011), combined with our observations of chemical variations in the outgassing bubbles to propose a mechanism for magma degassing in the conduit at Yasur. We envisage a shallow conduit filled with crystal-rich magma, forming a viscous and mobile plug that develops an effective yield strength from the surface to a depth of at least 2000 m, in which bubbles are trapped, grow, ascend towards the surface and burst in a typical Strombolian eruption. Deeper bubbles released during active degassing are enriched in CO2 and SO2 compared to bubbles released during ‘passive degassing’, which are sourced from close to the surface, and are, consequently, HCl-rich