Assessing the effectiveness of national solar and wind energy policies in South Africa

The report assesses the progress made on renewable energy deployment for the solar and wind technologies over the last 12 years in South Africa. First the report assesses the potential contribution solar water heaters (SWHs), concentrating solar power (CSP), large-scale photovoltaic (PV) farms and wind technology can bring to South Africa’s energy demand by 2030. It highlights what the mid-term potential for each is by 2030 and compares this with the deployment of each over the past 12 years. From this a renewable energy policy effectiveness value is calculated based on the method developed in the Deploying Renewables Report (IEA, 2008a) and this is critically assessed. Finally, the report assesses the factors involved in renewable energy deployment, or the lack thereof, in South Africa and discusses recent developments in the field. The compilation of this paper was based on desktop reviews; data interpretation from multiple sources; expert opinion of the authors and peer reviewers; and interviews with experts in the field. A number of interviews were conducted at the ISES International Solar Energy Society Conference in October 2009 and the Energy 2010 Indaba in February 2010. The data used in this report to formulate the projections is from a number of sources and has been independently reviewed

Large-scale rollout of concentrating solar power in South Africa

As part of Climate Strategies ‘International Support for Domestic Climate Policies’ project this paper assesses the large-scale rollout of CSP in South Africa. Described as a Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA), the scale of CSP deployment is determined, and the amount of greenhouse gas emissions saved and incremental investment costs are estimated in line with the modelling outcomes of the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS) for South Africa (Chapter 2). Based on a stakeholder workshop held in May 2009 the drivers in support of the rollout of CSP are described, in particular the recently established Renewable Energy Feed-In Tariff (REFIT), and three major barriers relating to technology, regulation and infrastructure are highlighted (Chapter 3). The paper further assesses options of international support in light of the climate change negotiations to overcome the barriers identified (Chapter 4), and lastly, it assesses indicators that may be successful in monitoring the large-scale rollout of CSP (Chapter 5). In this study we define the ‘large-scale’ rollout of CSP in line with the more optimistic ‘renewables extended with learning’ projection modelled in the LTMS of South Africa, as depicted in the figure below. The rollout is characterised by three phases: during the initial ‘Start’ phase, from 2010 to 2015, 2 GW of CSP capacity is constructed; the end of the ‘Scale–up’ phase (2030) results in a 24 GW CSP capacity; and by the completion of the ‘Rollout’ phase (2050) 100GW of CSP capacity should be established. This could result in 3,850 Mt CO2-eq saved over the period 2010-2050 and would require an incremental cost of R 4.7-13 billion per year if CSP technologies experience learning rates of 15 to 20% per year, and less (R 3.6-4.6 billion per year) if the country manages to create a local supply of CSP components. Post-2030, during the ‘Rollout’ phase cost savings are expected to be achieved in South African electricity generation system. Before then the cost to the electricity system is estimate at R2.5 billion for 2010-2015, R 8 billion for 2016-2020 and R23 billion for 2021-2030 above the baseline projection. The rollout could result in approximately 3,800 Mt CO2-eq saved over the period 2010-2050 and the build programme is estimated to require incremental investment costs of R 4-13 billion per year if CSP technologies experience learning rates of 15 to 20% per year, and less – R 2-4.3 billion per year – if the country manages to create a local supply of CSP components

South Africa's renewable energy policy roadmaps

South Africa’s renewable energy policy to date has largely been driven by a 10,000 GWh target by 2013 and renewable energy project subsidies offered through the REFSO. In 2009 a REFIT was published, which has resulted in a great interest by IPPs to develop renewable energy projects in South Africa. Nonetheless, under existing renewable energy policy few renewable energy projects for electricity generation have been deployed. SWHs have seen some market growth in 2008 and 2009 largely facilitated by a SWH subsidy and increased energy awareness due to nation-wide electricity blackouts in 2008

External cost of electricity generation: contribution to the Integrated Resource Plan 2 for Electricity

The international studies on energy externalities and the local studies in South Africa suggest that the high impact areas for power generation are impacts of climate change and health impacts of outdoor air pollution. Climate change impacts are by far the greatest. The health costs due to outdoor air pollution are considered quite low based on national studies, though these may be underestimated. Damage cost from acid mine drainage is also thought to be significant, and could be substantially higher than reported here. External costs of electricity generation are a necessary factor in modelling the IRP 2. To be consistent, external costs must be added to the modeller’s reference case and to all policy cases or scenarios. In the multiple criteria decision-making process, the external costs should be reported as a distinct criterion. The weighting of this criterion relative to others (cost, carbon, and access) should be discussed with stakeholders. Although the external cost presented here are appropriate for input into the IRP 2, an extensive national review must be completed for future IRPs. Furthermore, the Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) should take additional factors into account: health impacts of indoor air pollution (important in poor households, as well as industry); noise from transport, and other poverty-related issues such as wealth impacts of paraffin fires and burns, and social costs of fuel wood scarcity

Genome profiling of chronic myelomonocytic leukemia: frequent alterations of <it>RAS </it>and <it>RUNX1 </it>genes

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) is a hematological disease close to, but separate from both myeloproliferative disorders (MPD) and myelodysplastic syndromes and may show either myeloproliferative (MP-CMML) or myelodysplastic (MD-CMML) features. Not much is known about the molecular biology of this disease.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We studied a series of 30 CMML samples (13 MP- and 11 MD-CMMLs, and 6 acutely transformed cases) from 29 patients by using Agilent high density array-comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) and sequencing of 12 candidate genes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Two-thirds of samples did not show any obvious alteration of aCGH profiles. In one-third we observed chromosome abnormalities (e.g. trisomy 8, del20q) and gain or loss of genes (e.g. <it>NF1</it>, <it>RB1 </it>and <it>CDK6</it>). <it>RAS </it>mutations were detected in 4 cases (including an uncommon codon 146 mutation in <it>KRAS</it>) and <it>PTPN11 </it>mutations in 3 cases. We detected 11 <it>RUNX1 </it>alterations (9 mutations and 2 rearrangements). The rearrangements were a new, cryptic inversion of chromosomal region 21q21-22 leading to break and fusion of <it>RUNX1 </it>to <it>USP16</it>. <it>RAS </it>and <it>RUNX1 </it>alterations were not mutually exclusive. RAS pathway mutations occurred in MP-CMMLs (~46%) but not in MD-CMMLs. <it>RUNX1 </it>alterations (mutations and cryptic rearrangement) occurred in both MP and MD classes (~38%).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We detected RAS pathway mutations and RUNX1 alterations. The latter included a new cryptic <it>USP16-RUNX1 </it>fusion. In some samples, two alterations coexisted already at this early chronic stage.</p

Oedipal authority and capitalist sovereignty: a Deleuzoguattarian reading of IR theory

Despite advancements in the theorisation of political sovereignty brought about by the engagements of critical international relations theory, there remain significant lacunae in our understanding of the reproduction of this peculiar configuration of social life. This article, drawing on the collaborative work of Deleuze and Guattari, seeks to provide a more robust theorisation of the subjectivities underpinning modern political sovereignty — here understood as capitalist sovereignty. It looks to their programme of ‘schizoanalysis’, which interrogates the unconscious libidinal investments of capitalist reproduction. Specifically, Deleuze and Guattari argue that a factitious Oedipal configuration of desire allows the sovereign flow of capital. This article gathers insights from schizoanalysis in elucidating a dynamic affective relationship between sovereignty and the territorial state. It also suggests the potential of schizoanalysis for reconceptualising world politics and contributing to emancipatory IR scholarship