Does Neoclassical Theory Account for the Effects of Big Fiscal Shocks? Evidence From World War II

There is much debate about the usefulness of the neoclassical growth model for assessing the macro-economic impact of fiscal shocks. We test the theory using data from World War II, which is by far the largest fiscal shock in the history of the United States. We take observed changes in fiscal policy during the war as inputs into a parameterized, dynamic general equilibrium model and compare the values of all variables in the model to the actual values of these variables in the data. Our main finding is that the theory quantitatively accounts for macroeconomic activity during this big fiscal shock.

Does neoclassical theory account for the effects of big fiscal shocks? Evidence from World War II

There is much debate about the usefulness of the neoclassical growth model for assessing the macroeconomic impact of fiscal shocks. We test the theory using data from World War II, which is by far the largest fiscal shock in the history of the United States. We take observed changes in fiscal policy during the war as inputs into a parameterized, dynamic general equilibrium model and compare the values of all variables in the model to the actual values of these variables in the data. Our main finding is that the theory quantitatively accounts for macroeconomic activity during this big fiscal shock.Economic history ; Fiscal policy ; Macroeconomics - Econometric models

Why are married women working so much?

We study the large observed changes in labor supply by married women in the United States over 1950-1990, a period when labor supply by single women has hardly changed at all. We investigate the effects of changes in the gender wage gap, technological improvements in the production of nonmarket goods and potential inferiority of these goods on understanding this change. We find that small decreases in the gender wage gap can explain simultaneously the significant increases in the average hours worked by married women and the relative constancy in the hours worked by single women, and single and married men. We also find that technological improvements in the household have-for realistic values-too small an impact on married female hours and the relative wage of females to males. Some specifications of the inferiority of home goods match the hours patterns, but have counterfactual predictions for wages and expenditure patterns.Labor supply ; Women - Employment

Valencia bridge fire tests: Validation of simplified and advanced numerical approaches to model bridge fire scenarios

[EN] Bridge fires are a major concern and the subject of many studies that use numerical models. However, experimental studies are still required to test the validity of these numerical models and improve their accuracy. This paper uses temperature results of the Valencia bridge fire tests carried out at the Universitat Politecnica de Valencia, in Valencia (Spain) to calibrate the fire models that constitute the first step in modeling any bridge fire event. The calibration is carried out by both a simplified approach (Heskestad and Hamada's correlation) and advanced numerical models (Computational Fluid Dynamics models built with the Fire Dynamics Simulator -FDS- software). The Valencia bridge fire tests involved four fire scenarios under a composite bridge with Heat Release Rate (HRR) values between 361 and 1352 kW. The results show that applying Heskestad and Hamada's correlation gave good results when used within its limits of application (HRR < 0.764 MW) but did not work well beyond them, which means it would be suitable for planning reduced scale bridge fire tests but not in the analysis of real bridge fires. On the other hand, FDS provides good predictions of the temperatures and can be used to study bridge fire responses. This work is therefore an important step forward in the study of bridge fires and towards the improvement of the resilience of infrastructure networks vis-a-vis fire hazards. It also highlights the problems that can arise in fire tests in the open air, the influence of the wind being of critical importance.Funding for this research was provided by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Research Project BIA 2011-27104). The authors are grateful to the Infrastructure and Safety departments of the Universitat Politecnica de Valencia and the City of Valencia Fire Department (Cuerpo de Bomberos de Valencia), which provided crucial support in conducting the tests.Alós-Moya, J.; Paya-Zaforteza, I.; Hospitaler Pérez, A.; Loma-Ossorio, E. (2019). Valencia bridge fire tests: Validation of simplified and advanced numerical approaches to model bridge fire scenarios. Advances in Engineering Software (Online). 128:55-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advengsoft.2018.11.003S556812

Onasemnogene abeparvovec preserves bulbar function in infants with presymptomatic spinal muscular atrophy: a post-hoc analysis of the SPR1NT trial

Bulbar function in spinal muscular atrophy has been defined as the ability to meet nutritional needs by mouth while maintaining airway protection and communicate verbally. The effects of disease-modifying treatment on bulbar function are not clear. A multidisciplinary team conducted post-hoc analyses of phase 3 SPR1NT trial data to evaluate bulbar function of infants at risk for spinal muscular atrophy who received one-time gene replacement therapy (onasemnogene abeparvovec) before symptom onset. Three endpoints represented adequate bulbar function in SPR1NT: (1) absence of physiologic swallowing impairment, (2) full oral nutrition, and (3) absence of adverse events indicating pulmonary instability. Communication was not assessed in SPR1NT. We descriptively assessed numbers/percentages of children who achieved each endpoint and all three collectively. SPR1NT included infants <6 postnatal weeks with two (n = 14) or three (n = 15) copies of the survival motor neuron 2 gene. At study end (18 [two-copy cohort] or 24 [three-copy cohort] months of age), 100% (29/29) of patients swallowed normally, achieved full oral nutrition, maintained pulmonary stability, and achieved the composite endpoint. When administered to infants before clinical symptom onset, onasemnogene abeparvovec allowed children at risk for spinal muscular atrophy to achieve milestones within published normal ranges of development and preserve bulbar function

Development of an International SMA Bulbar Assessment for Inter-professional Administration

BACKGROUND: Progressive weakness can affect bulbar muscles in individuals with moderate to severe forms of spinal muscular atrophy (SMA). The paucity of standardized, valid bulbar assessments capturing clinically significant deficits in SMA impedes the ability to monitor function, facilitate intervention, or detect treatment response. OBJECTIVE: To fill this void, an international multidisciplinary team gathered to develop an agreed upon consensus-derived assessment of bulbar function in SMA for inter-professional administration to enhance our ability to monitor disease progression, support clinical management, and evaluate treatment effects. METHODS: Fifty-six international clinicians experienced in SMA were invited and engaged using the Delphi method over multiple rounds of web-based surveys to establish consensus. RESULTS: Serial virtual meetings occurred with 42 clinicians (21 speech and language therapists, 11 physical therapists, 5 neurologists, 4 occupational therapists, and 1 dentist). Seventy-two validated assessments of bulbar function were identified for potential relevance to individuals with SMA (32 accessible objective, 11 inaccessible objective, 29 patient-reported outcomes). Delphi survey rounds (n = 11, 15, 15) achieved consensus on individual items with relevance and wording discussed. Key aspects of bulbar function identified included: oral intake status, oral facial structure and motor strength, swallowing physiology, voice & speech, and fatigability. CONCLUSIONS: Multidisciplinary clinicians with expertise in bulbar function and SMA used Delphi methodology to reach consensus on assessments/items considered relevant for SMA across all age groups. Future steps include piloting the new scale moving towards validation/reliability. This work supports the advancement of assessing bulbar function in children and adults with SMA by a variety of professionals

“This is proof”? Forensic evidence and ambiguous material culture at Treblinka extermination camp

In recent years, a forensic archaeological project at Treblinka extermination camp has uncovered significance evidence relating to the mass murder that took place there. A number of questions emerged regarding the provenance and origins of objects discovered as part of this work, and why they had remained undiscovered for over seventy years. These discoveries led to an opportunity to confirm and challenge the history of the extermination camp, and demands (from the public) to view the objects. This paper will outline how archaeologists and artists came together to reflect on these issues, whilst simultaneously providing access to the new findings

How Trade and Investment Agreements Affect Bilateral Foreign Direct Investment: Results from a Structural Gravity Model

The paper develops a new stand-alone structural gravity model for explaining bilateral FDI patterns. We employ the model to analyse the impact of preferential trade agreements (PTAs), bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and other policies on bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI). We use the UNCTAD global database on bilateral FDI stocks and flows. To control for the heterogeneous nature of PTAs, we employ two different indicators of PTA depth. We find that on average signing a PTA increases bilateral FDI stocks by around 30%. Nevertheless, we also find that ‘deeper’ or comprehensive PTAs (e.g., including provisions on investment, public procurement and intellectual property rights provisions) do not have a significantly different impact than signing regular PTAs. Belonging to the EU single market, on the other hand, has a strong impact and increases bilateral FDI by around 135%, and signing a BIT has an effect that is comparable to signing a PTA