What medium-term growth rates after the crisis?

The financial crisis originated in the United States in 2007 and, then, spread in all the economies of the world. After a drop in activity of historic magnitude, first signs of recovery were recorded in 2009. However, our study of previous banking crises that have taken place in OECD countries over the last forty years leads one to expect a very gradual return of growth rates to their pre-crisis values, with long-lasting losses for the level of GDP. According to our estimations, average losses observed during past banking crises occurred through a reduction in capital stocks, an increase in unemployment rates and a drop in participation rates. Conversely, past banking crises seemed to have had little impact on total factor productivity. In France, the 1992-1993 crisis, which shares some common features with the current crisis, had also long-lasting negative impacts on the employment and unemployment rates. Employment-rate losses were fairly similar for men and women. Ten years passed before the overall unemployment rate returned to its pre-crisis level. Based on various post-crisis scenarios, we illustrate the mechanical medium-term impact of the current crisis on public finances, whithout any fiscal adjustment after 2012. Even in the scenario of a complete recovery by 2018 of GDP losses recorded in 2008 and 2009, the impact on the public debt would exceed 20 % of GDP ten years after the crisis as a result of declining revenues and increasing interest payments. The impact would be still higher in less favourable scenarios.financial crisis, medium-term growth

The Core of the Participatory Budgeting Problem

In participatory budgeting, communities collectively decide on the allocation of public tax dollars for local public projects. In this work, we consider the question of fairly aggregating the preferences of community members to determine an allocation of funds to projects. This problem is different from standard fair resource allocation because of public goods: The allocated goods benefit all users simultaneously. Fairness is crucial in participatory decision making, since generating equitable outcomes is an important goal of these processes. We argue that the classic game theoretic notion of core captures fairness in the setting. To compute the core, we first develop a novel characterization of a public goods market equilibrium called the Lindahl equilibrium, which is always a core solution. We then provide the first (to our knowledge) polynomial time algorithm for computing such an equilibrium for a broad set of utility functions; our algorithm also generalizes (in a non-trivial way) the well-known concept of proportional fairness. We use our theoretical insights to perform experiments on real participatory budgeting voting data. We empirically show that the core can be efficiently computed for utility functions that naturally model our practical setting, and examine the relation of the core with the familiar welfare objective. Finally, we address concerns of incentives and mechanism design by developing a randomized approximately dominant-strategy truthful mechanism building on the exponential mechanism from differential privacy

The MESANGE model: re-estimation on National Accounts base 2000 / Part 2 Version with chained-linked volumes

Mesange is a medium-size quarterly macro-econometric model of the French economy (about 500 equations, three sectors). The model describes short-term Keynesian dynamics and its long-term equilibrium is driven by supply-side determinants. Its reestimation on data from the national accounts base 2000 with fixed-base volumes is presented in a recent working paper (Klein and Simon, 2010). This first version of the model has been optimized for simulation use. Other applications of the Mesange model (short-term forecasting, analyses of the past) required its adaptation to the published data from the quarterly accounts with chained-linked volumes, as well as the integration of the recent crisis episode. A second version of the Mesange model has, therefore, been developed for this purpose. This version is presented in this working paper. First, the problems raised for macroeconomic modelling by national accounts with chained-linked volumes are explained and the solutions chosen to adapt the model to these new conventions are discussed. The applications of the version of the model with chained-linked volumes are, then, explained and illustrated with examples. Last, the main reestimated equations are detailed. The differences with respect to the version of the model with fixed-base volumes are commented. They stem from estimations based on non-identical data, but also from the different uses made of the two versions of Mesange and the resulting various needs and constraints that have conditioned the methodological choices that have been made. As for the version of the model with chained-linked volumes, priority has been given to the quality of the adjustment to the data rather than to the underlying theoretical framework. Nonetheless, the philosophy and general structure of the two versions of the model remain very much alike.macroeconometric model, estimation, chained-linked volumes, short-term forecasting, contribution analysis

Produire durablement du lait avec des chèvres en forêt méditerranéenne

Depuis, 2008, un Réseau caprin pastoral méditerranéen s’est constitué entre services pastoraux de Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, Languedoc-Roussillon et Corse afin de rénover les références de la valorisation des parcours par les chèvres. En région méditerranéenne, les troupeaux caprins se déploient largement dans la « forêt méditerranéenne », cette mosaïque de taillis, de clairières, de garrigues ou de maquis qui leur fournissent une abondante ressource ligneuse. La contribution des parcours à la ration du troupeau peut alors atteindre jusqu’à 80 % de l’alimentation annuelle : l’élevage caprin transforme, littéralement, la broussaille en fromage. Les suivis réalisés sur une douzaine de fermes de référence montrent qu’un pâturage prudent conduit en gardiennage permet un renouvellement durable de la strate arbustive de 0,4 m à 1,5 m de hauteur fournissant l’essentiel du pâturage des chèvres. A l’inverse, il est possible aussi d’obtenir un impact très fort qui tend à épuiser les arbustes dans un objectif de débroussaillement. Ainsi c’est par un pilotage précis, différencié selon les objectifs, en partenariat avec les gestionnaires de la forêt, que l’élevage caprin peut réinvestir la forêt méditerranéenne, cette fois en accord, et parfois à la demande, des forestiers

The impact of Participatory Budgeting on health and wellbeing:A scoping review of evaluations

Background: Participatory budgeting (PB), citizens deliberating among themselves and with officials to decide how to allocate funds for public goods, has been increasingly implemented across Europe and worldwide. While PB is recommended as good practice by the World Bank and the United Nations, with potential to improve health and wellbeing, it is unclear what evaluations have been conducted on the impact of PB on health and wellbeing. Methods: For this scoping review, we searched 21 databases with no restrictions on publication date or language. The search term ‘participatory budget’ was used as the relevant global label for the intervention of interest. Studies were included if they reported original analysis of health, social, political, or economic and budgetary outcomes of PB. We examined the study design, analysis, outcomes and location of included articles. Findings are reported narratively. Results: From 1458 identified references, 37 studies were included. The majority of evaluations (n = 24) were of PB in South America, seven were in Europe. Most evaluations were case studies (n = 23) conducting ethnography and surveys, focussing on political outcomes such as participation in PB or impacts on political activities. All of the quantitative observational studies analysing population level data, except one in Russia, were conducted in South America. Conclusion: Despite increasing interest in PB, evaluations applying robust methods to analyse health and wellbeing outcomes are scarce, particularly beyond Brazil. Therefore, implementation of PB schemes should be accompanied by rigorous qualitative and quantitative evaluation to identify impacts and the processes by which they are realised

Global Existence and Large-Time Behavior of Solutions to the Three-Dimensional Equations of Compressible Magnetohydrodynamic Flows

The three-dimensional equations of compressible magnetohydrodynamic isentropic flows are considered. An initial-boundary value problem is studied in a bounded domain with large data. The existence and large-time behavior of global weak solutions are established through a three-level approximation, energy estimates, and weak convergence for the adiabatic exponent $\gamma>\frac32$ and constant viscosity coefficients

Global solutions to the three-dimensional full compressible magnetohydrodynamic flows

The equations of the three-dimensional viscous, compressible, and heat conducting magnetohydrodynamic flows are considered in a bounded domain. The viscosity coefficients and heat conductivity can depend on the temperature. A solution to the initial-boundary value problem is constructed through an approximation scheme and a weak convergence method. The existence of a global variational weak solution to the three-dimensional full magnetohydrodynamic equations with large data is established

Agricultura orgânica em áreas urbanas e periurbanas com base na agroecologia.

A agricultura orgânica com base na agroecologia é o mote tecnológico adequado à realidade dos agroecossistemas urbanos. Este artigo ressalta a necessidade de se desenvolver tecnologias e insumos específicos. A partir de experiências com agricultura urbana em diferentes países em desenvolvimento, evidencia-se a necessidade de se buscar capacidades locais e apoio do poder público, especialmente nas iniciativas da sociedade organizada e mobilizada para a produção agrícola urbana