170 research outputs found
What medium-term growth rates after the crisis?
The financial crisis originated in the United States in 2007 and, then, spread in all the economies of the world. After a drop in activity of historic magnitude, first signs of recovery were recorded in 2009. However, our study of previous banking crises that have taken place in OECD countries over the last forty years leads one to expect a very gradual return of growth rates to their pre-crisis values, with long-lasting losses for the level of GDP. According to our estimations, average losses observed during past banking crises occurred through a reduction in capital stocks, an increase in unemployment rates and a drop in participation rates. Conversely, past banking crises seemed to have had little impact on total factor productivity. In France, the 1992-1993 crisis, which shares some common features with the current crisis, had also long-lasting negative impacts on the employment and unemployment rates. Employment-rate losses were fairly similar for men and women. Ten years passed before the overall unemployment rate returned to its pre-crisis level. Based on various post-crisis scenarios, we illustrate the mechanical medium-term impact of the current crisis on public finances, whithout any fiscal adjustment after 2012. Even in the scenario of a complete recovery by 2018 of GDP losses recorded in 2008 and 2009, the impact on the public debt would exceed 20 % of GDP ten years after the crisis as a result of declining revenues and increasing interest payments. The impact would be still higher in less favourable scenarios.financial crisis, medium-term growth
The Core of the Participatory Budgeting Problem
In participatory budgeting, communities collectively decide on the allocation
of public tax dollars for local public projects. In this work, we consider the
question of fairly aggregating the preferences of community members to
determine an allocation of funds to projects. This problem is different from
standard fair resource allocation because of public goods: The allocated goods
benefit all users simultaneously. Fairness is crucial in participatory decision
making, since generating equitable outcomes is an important goal of these
processes. We argue that the classic game theoretic notion of core captures
fairness in the setting. To compute the core, we first develop a novel
characterization of a public goods market equilibrium called the Lindahl
equilibrium, which is always a core solution. We then provide the first (to our
knowledge) polynomial time algorithm for computing such an equilibrium for a
broad set of utility functions; our algorithm also generalizes (in a
non-trivial way) the well-known concept of proportional fairness. We use our
theoretical insights to perform experiments on real participatory budgeting
voting data. We empirically show that the core can be efficiently computed for
utility functions that naturally model our practical setting, and examine the
relation of the core with the familiar welfare objective. Finally, we address
concerns of incentives and mechanism design by developing a randomized
approximately dominant-strategy truthful mechanism building on the exponential
mechanism from differential privacy
The MESANGE model: re-estimation on National Accounts base 2000 / Part 2 Version with chained-linked volumes
Mesange is a medium-size quarterly macro-econometric model of the French economy (about 500 equations, three sectors). The model describes short-term Keynesian dynamics and its long-term equilibrium is driven by supply-side determinants. Its reestimation on data from the national accounts base 2000 with fixed-base volumes is presented in a recent working paper (Klein and Simon, 2010). This first version of the model has been optimized for simulation use. Other applications of the Mesange model (short-term forecasting, analyses of the past) required its adaptation to the published data from the quarterly accounts with chained-linked volumes, as well as the integration of the recent crisis episode. A second version of the Mesange model has, therefore, been developed for this purpose. This version is presented in this working paper. First, the problems raised for macroeconomic modelling by national accounts with chained-linked volumes are explained and the solutions chosen to adapt the model to these new conventions are discussed. The applications of the version of the model with chained-linked volumes are, then, explained and illustrated with examples. Last, the main reestimated equations are detailed. The differences with respect to the version of the model with fixed-base volumes are commented. They stem from estimations based on non-identical data, but also from the different uses made of the two versions of Mesange and the resulting various needs and constraints that have conditioned the methodological choices that have been made. As for the version of the model with chained-linked volumes, priority has been given to the quality of the adjustment to the data rather than to the underlying theoretical framework. Nonetheless, the philosophy and general structure of the two versions of the model remain very much alike.macroeconometric model, estimation, chained-linked volumes, short-term forecasting, contribution analysis
Produire durablement du lait avec des chĂšvres en forĂȘt mĂ©diterranĂ©enne
Depuis, 2008, un RĂ©seau caprin pastoral mĂ©diterranĂ©en sâest constituĂ© entre services pastoraux de Provence-Alpes-CĂŽte dâAzur, Languedoc-Roussillon et Corse afin de rĂ©nover les rĂ©fĂ©rences de la valorisation des parcours par les chĂšvres. En rĂ©gion mĂ©diterranĂ©enne, les troupeaux caprins se dĂ©ploient largement dans la « forĂȘt mĂ©diterranĂ©enne », cette mosaĂŻque de taillis, de clairiĂšres, de garrigues ou de maquis qui leur fournissent une abondante ressource ligneuse. La contribution des parcours Ă la ration du troupeau peut alors atteindre jusquâĂ 80 % de lâalimentation annuelle : lâĂ©levage caprin transforme, littĂ©ralement, la broussaille en fromage. Les suivis rĂ©alisĂ©s sur une douzaine de fermes de rĂ©fĂ©rence montrent quâun pĂąturage prudent conduit en gardiennage permet un renouvellement durable de la strate arbustive de 0,4 m Ă 1,5 m de hauteur fournissant lâessentiel du pĂąturage des chĂšvres. A lâinverse, il est possible aussi dâobtenir un impact trĂšs fort qui tend Ă Ă©puiser les arbustes dans un objectif de dĂ©broussaillement. Ainsi câest par un pilotage prĂ©cis, diffĂ©renciĂ© selon les objectifs, en partenariat avec les gestionnaires de la forĂȘt, que lâĂ©levage caprin peut rĂ©investir la forĂȘt mĂ©diterranĂ©enne, cette fois en accord, et parfois Ă la demande, des forestiers
The impact of Participatory Budgeting on health and wellbeing:A scoping review of evaluations
Background: Participatory budgeting (PB), citizens deliberating among themselves and with officials to decide how
to allocate funds for public goods, has been increasingly implemented across Europe and worldwide. While PB is
recommended as good practice by the World Bank and the United Nations, with potential to improve health and
wellbeing, it is unclear what evaluations have been conducted on the impact of PB on health and wellbeing.
Methods: For this scoping review, we searched 21 databases with no restrictions on publication date or language.
The search term âparticipatory budgetâ was used as the relevant global label for the intervention of interest. Studies
were included if they reported original analysis of health, social, political, or economic and budgetary outcomes of
PB. We examined the study design, analysis, outcomes and location of included articles. Findings are reported
narratively.
Results: From 1458 identified references, 37 studies were included. The majority of evaluations (n = 24) were of PB
in South America, seven were in Europe. Most evaluations were case studies (n = 23) conducting ethnography and
surveys, focussing on political outcomes such as participation in PB or impacts on political activities. All of the
quantitative observational studies analysing population level data, except one in Russia, were conducted in South
America.
Conclusion: Despite increasing interest in PB, evaluations applying robust methods to analyse health and
wellbeing outcomes are scarce, particularly beyond Brazil. Therefore, implementation of PB schemes should be
accompanied by rigorous qualitative and quantitative evaluation to identify impacts and the processes by which
they are realised
Global Existence and Large-Time Behavior of Solutions to the Three-Dimensional Equations of Compressible Magnetohydrodynamic Flows
The three-dimensional equations of compressible magnetohydrodynamic
isentropic flows are considered. An initial-boundary value problem is studied
in a bounded domain with large data. The existence and large-time behavior of
global weak solutions are established through a three-level approximation,
energy estimates, and weak convergence for the adiabatic exponent
and constant viscosity coefficients
Global solutions to the three-dimensional full compressible magnetohydrodynamic flows
The equations of the three-dimensional viscous, compressible, and heat
conducting magnetohydrodynamic flows are considered in a bounded domain. The
viscosity coefficients and heat conductivity can depend on the temperature. A
solution to the initial-boundary value problem is constructed through an
approximation scheme and a weak convergence method. The existence of a global
variational weak solution to the three-dimensional full magnetohydrodynamic
equations with large data is established
Agricultura orgĂąnica em ĂĄreas urbanas e periurbanas com base na agroecologia.
A agricultura orgĂąnica com base na agroecologia Ă© o mote tecnolĂłgico adequado Ă realidade dos agroecossistemas urbanos. Este artigo ressalta a necessidade de se desenvolver tecnologias e insumos especĂficos. A partir de experiĂȘncias com agricultura urbana em diferentes paĂses em desenvolvimento, evidencia-se a necessidade de se buscar capacidades locais e apoio do poder pĂșblico, especialmente nas iniciativas da sociedade organizada e mobilizada para a produção agrĂcola urbana
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