How Do Tourists React to Political Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Tourism in Egypt

This paper uses a detailed database of political violence in Egypt to study European and US tourists' attitudes towards a conflict region. We study the heterogeneous impacts of different dimensions of political violence and counter-violence on tourist flows to Egypt in the 1990s. Both US and EU tourists respond negatively to attacks on tourists, but are not influenced by casualties arising in confrontations between domestic groups. However, European tourists are sensitive to the counter-violence measures implemented by the Egyptian government. There is also evidence of arrivals of tourists into Egypt rising when fatalities in the Israeli/Palestinian conflict increase.</p

Activation of the p53 pathway by the MDM2 inhibitor nutlin-3a overcomes BCL2 overexpression in a preclinical model of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma associated with t(14;18)(q32;q21)

p53 is frequently wild type (wt) in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) associated with t(14;18)(q32;q21) that overexpresses BCL2. Nutlin-3a is a small molecule that activates the p53 pathway by disrupting p53–MDM2 interaction. We show that nutlin-3a activates p53 in DLBCL cells associated with t(14;18)(q32;q21), BCL2 overexpression and wt p53, resulting in cell cycle arrest and apoptosis. Nutlin-3a treatment had similar effects on DLBCL cells of activated B-cell phenotype with wt p53. Cell cycle arrest was associated with upregulation of p21. Nutlin-3a-induced apoptosis was accompanied by BAX and PUMA upregulation, BCL-XL downregulation, serine-70 dephosphorylation of BCL2, direct binding of BCL2 by p53, caspase-9 upregulation and caspase-3 cleavage. Cell death was reduced when p53-dependent transactivation activity was inhibited by pifithrin-α (PFT-α), or PFT-μ inhibited direct p53 targeting of mitochondria. Nutlin-3a sensitized activation of the intrinsic apoptotic pathway by BCL2 inhibitors in t(14;18)-positive DLBCL cells with wt p53, and enhanced doxorubicin cytotoxicity against t(14;18)-positive DLBCL cells with wt or mutant p53, the latter in part via p73 upregulation. Nutlin-3a treatment in a xenograft animal lymphoma model inhibited growth of t(14;18)-positive DLBCL tumors, associated with increased apoptosis and decreased proliferation. These data suggest that disruption of the p53–MDM2 interaction by nutlin-3a offers a novel therapeutic approach for DLBCL associated with t(14;18)(q32;q21)

Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science (CEERS) survey: The colour evolution of galaxies in the distant Universe

The wavelength-coverage and sensitivity of JWST now enables us to probe the rest-frame UV - optical spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of galaxies at high-redshift ($z>4$). From these SEDs it is, in principle, through SED fitting possible to infer key physical properties, including stellar masses, star formation rates, and dust attenuation. These in turn can be compared with the predictions of galaxy formation simulations allowing us to validate and refine the incorporated physics. However, the inference of physical properties, particularly from photometry alone, can lead to large uncertainties and potential biases. Instead, it is now possible, and common, for simulations to be \emph{forward-modelled} to yield synthetic observations that can be compared directly to real observations. In this work, we measure the JWST broadband fluxes and colours of a robust sample of $5<z<10$ galaxies using the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science (CEERS) Survey. We then analyse predictions from a variety of models using the same methodology and compare the NIRCam/F277W magnitude distribution and NIRCam colours with observations. We find that the predicted and observed magnitude distributions are similar, at least at $58$ the distributions differ somewhat, though our observed sample size is small and thus susceptible to statistical fluctuations. Likewise, the predicted and observed colour evolution show broad agreement, at least at $5<z<8$. There is however some disagreement between the observed and modelled strength of the strong line contribution. In particular all the models fails to reproduce the F410M-F444W colour at $z>8$, though, again, the sample size is small here.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures, submitted to MNRA

The COSMOS-Web ring: in-depth characterization of an Einstein ring lensing system at z~2

Aims. We provide an in-depth analysis of the COSMOS-Web ring, an Einstein ring at z=2 that we serendipitously discovered in the COSMOS-Web survey and possibly the most distant lens discovered to date. Methods. We extract the visible and NIR photometry from more than 25 bands and we derive the photometric redshifts and physical properties of both the lens and the source with three different SED fitting codes. Using JWST/NIRCam images, we also produce two lens models to (i) recover the total mass of the lens, (ii) derive the magnification of the system, (iii) reconstruct the morphology of the lensed source, and (iv) measure the slope of the total mass density profile of the lens. Results. The lens is a very massive and quiescent (sSFR < 10^(-13) yr-1) elliptical galaxy at z = 2.02 \pm 0.02 with a total mass Mtot(<thetaE) = (3.66 \pm 0.36) x 10^11 Msun and a stellar mass M* = (1.37 \pm 0.14) x 10^11 Msun. Compared to SHMRs from the literature, we find that the total mass is consistent with the presence of a DM halo of mass Mh = 1.09^(+1.46)_(-0.57) x 10^13 Msun. In addition, the background source is a M* = (1.26 \pm 0.17) x 10^10 Msun star-forming galaxy (SFR=(78 \pm 15) Msun/yr) at z = 5.48 \pm 0.06. Its reconstructed morphology shows two components with different colors. Dust attenuation values from SED fitting and nearby detections in the FIR also suggest it could be partially dust-obscured. Conclusions. We find the lens at z=2. Its total, stellar, and DM halo masses are consistent within the Einstein ring, so we do not need any unexpected changes in our description of the lens (e.g. change its IMF or include a non-negligible gas contribution). The most likely solution for the lensed source is at z = 5.5. Its reconstructed morphology is complex and highly wavelength dependent, possibly because it is a merger or a main sequence galaxy with a heterogeneous dust distribution.Comment: 16 pages, submitted to A&

Emerging roles of ATF2 and the dynamic AP1 network in cancer

Cooperation among transcription factors is central for their ability to execute specific transcriptional programmes. The AP1 complex exemplifies a network of transcription factors that function in unison under normal circumstances and during the course of tumour development and progression. This Perspective summarizes our current understanding of the changes in members of the AP1 complex and the role of ATF2 as part of this complex in tumorigenesis.Fil: Lopez Bergami, Pablo Roberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental (i); Argentina; ArgentinaFil: Lau, Eric . Burnham Institute for Medical Research; Estados UnidosFil: Ronai, Zeev . Burnham Institute for Medical Research; Estados Unido

The additional value of patient-reported health status in predicting 1-year mortality after invasive coronary procedures: A report from the Euro Heart Survey on Coronary Revascularisation

Objective: Self-perceived health status may be helpful in identifying patients at high risk for adverse outcomes. The Euro Heart Survey on Coronary Revascularization (EHS-CR) provided an opportunity to explore whether impaired health status was a predictor of 1-year mortality in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing angiographic procedures. Methods: Data from the EHS-CR that included 5619 patients from 31 member countries of the European Society of Cardiology were used. Inclusion criteria for the current study were completion of a self-report measure of health status, the EuroQol Questionnaire (EQ-5D) at discharge and information on 1-year follow-up, resulting in a study population of 3786 patients. Results: The 1-year mortality was 3.2% (n = 120). Survivors reported fewer problems on the five dimensions of the EQ-5D as compared with non-survivors. A broad range of potential confounders were adjusted for, which reached a p<0.10 in the unadjusted analyses. In the adjusted analyses, problems with self-care (OR 3.45; 95% CI 2.14 to 5.59) and a low rating (≤ 60) on health status (OR 2.41; 95% CI 1.47 to 3.94) were the most powerful independent predictors of mortality, among the 22 clinical variables included in the analysis. Furthermore, patients who reported no problems on all five dimensions had significantly lower 1-year mortality rates (OR 0.47; 95% CI 0.28 to 0.81). Conclusions: This analysis shows that impaired health status is associated with a 2-3-fold increased risk of all-cause mortality in patients with CAD, independent of other conventional risk factors. These results highlight the importance of including patients' subjective experience of their own health status in the evaluation strategy to optimise risk stratification and management in clinical practice

The COSMOS-Web ring: In-depth characterization of an Einstein ring lensing system at z ∼ 2

Aims. We provide an in-depth analysis of the COSMOS-Web ring, an Einstein ring at z ≈ 2 that we serendipitously discovered during the data reduction of the COSMOS-Web survey and that could be the most distant lens discovered to date.Methods. We extracted the visible and near-infrared photometry of the source and the lens from more than 25 bands. We combined these observations with far-infrared detections to study the dusty nature of the source and we derived the photometric redshifts and physical properties of both the lens and the source with three different spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting codes. Using JWST/NIRCam images, we also produced two lens models to (i) recover the total mass of the lens, (ii) derive the magnification of the system, (iii) reconstruct the morphology of the lensed source, and (iv) measure the slope of the total mass density profile of the lens.Results. We find the lens to be a very massive elliptical galaxy at z = 2.02 ± 0.02 with a total mass within the Einstein radius of Mtot(<θEin = (3.66 ± 0.36) × 1011 M⊙ and a total stellar mass of M⋆ = 1.37−0.11+0.14 × 1011 M⊙. We also estimate it to be compact and quiescent with a specific star formation rate below 10−13 yr. Compared to stellar-to-halo mass relations from the literature, we find that the total mass of the lens within the Einstein radius is consistent with the presence of a dark matter (DM) halo of total mass Mh = 1.09−0.57+1.46 × 1013 M⊙. In addition, the background source is a M⋆ = (1.26 ± 0.17) × 1010 M⊙ star-forming galaxy (SFR ≈ (78 ± 15) M⊙ yr) at z = 5.48 ± 0.06. The morphology reconstructed in the source plane shows two clear components with different colors. Dust attenuation values from SED fitting and nearby detections in the far infrared also suggest that the background source could be at least partially dust-obscured.Conclusions. We find the lens at z ≈ 2. Its total, stellar, and DM halo masses are consistent within the Einstein ring, so we do not need any unexpected changes in our description of the lens such as changing its initial mass function or including a non-negligible gas contribution. The most likely solution for the lensed source is at z ≈ 5.5. Its reconstructed morphology is complex and highly wavelength dependent, possibly because it is a merger or a main sequence galaxy with a heterogeneous dust distribution

The role of high frequency intra-daily data, daily range and implied volatility in multi-period Value-at-Risk forecasting

In this paper, we assess the informational content of daily range, realized variance, realized bipower variation, two time scale realized variance, realized range and implied volatility in daily, weekly, biweekly and monthly out-of-sample Value-at-Risk (VaR) predictions. We use the recently proposed Realized GARCH model combined with the skewed student distribution for the innovations process and a Monte Carlo simulation approach in order to produce the multi-period VaR estimates. The VaR forecasts are evaluated in terms of statistical and regulatory accuracy as well as capital efficiency. Our empirical findings, based on the S&P 500 stock index, indicate that almost all realized and implied volatility measures can produce statistically and regulatory precise VaR forecasts across forecasting horizons, with the implied volatility being especially accurate in monthly VaR forecasts. The daily range produces inferior forecasting results in terms of regulatory accuracy and Basel II compliance. However, robust realized volatility measures such as the adjusted realized range and the realized bipower variation, which are immune against microstructure noise bias and price jumps respectively, generate superior VaR estimates in terms of capital efficiency, as they minimize the opportunity cost of capital and the Basel II regulatory capital. Our results highlight the importance of robust high frequency intra-daily data based volatility estimators in a multi-step VaR forecasting context as they balance between statistical or regulatory accuracy and capital efficiency