Is the SMART risk prediction model ready for real-world implementation?: A validation study in a routine care setting of approximately 380 000 individuals

AIMS: Reliably quantifying event rates in secondary prevention could aid clinical decision-making, including quantifying potential risk reductions of novel, and sometimes expensive, add-on therapies. We aimed to assess whether the SMART risk prediction model performs well in a real-world setting. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a historical open cohort study using UK primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2000-2017) diagnosed with coronary, cerebrovascular, peripheral, and/or aortic atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Analyses were undertaken separately for cohorts with established (≥6 months) vs. newly diagnosed ASCVD. The outcome was first post-cohort entry occurrence of myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death. Among the cohort with established ASCVD [n = 244 578, 62.1% male, median age 67.3 years, interquartile range (IQR) 59.2-74.0], the calibration and discrimination achieved by the SMART model was not dissimilar to performance at internal validation [Harrell's c-statistic = 0.639, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.636-0.642, compared with 0.675, 0.642-0.708]. Decision curve analysis indicated that the model outperformed treat all and treat none strategies in the clinically relevant 20-60% predicted risk range. Consistent findings were observed in sensitivity analyses, including complete case analysis (n = 182 482; c = 0.624, 95% CI 0.620-0.627). Among the cohort with newly diagnosed ASCVD (n = 136 445; 61.0% male; median age 66.0 years, IQR 57.7-73.2), model performance was weaker with more exaggerated risk under-prediction and a c-statistic of 0.559, 95% CI 0.556-0.562. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of the SMART model in this validation cohort demonstrates its potential utility in routine healthcare settings in guiding both population and individual-level decision-making for secondary prevention patients

Impact of the 2021 European Society for Cardiology prevention guideline’s stepwise approach for cardiovascular risk factor treatment in patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease

Aims This study aimed to evaluate the stepwise approach for cardiovascular (CV) risk factor treatment as outlined by the European Society for Cardiology 2021 guidelines on CV disease (CVD) prevention in patients with established atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) Methods In patients with ASCVD, included in UCC-SMART (n = 8730) and European parts of the REACH registry (n = 18 364), the and results 10-year CV risk was estimated using SMART2. Treatment effects were derived from meta-analyses and trials. Step 1 recommendations were LDL cholesterol (LDLc) < 1.8 mmol/L, systolic blood pressure (SBP) < 140 mmHg, using any antithrombotic medication, sodium–glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibition, and smoking cessation. Step 2 recommendations were LDLc < 1.4 mmol/L, SBP < 130 mmHg, dual-pathway inhibition (DPI, aspirin plus low-dose rivaroxaban), colchicine, glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1 receptor agonists, and eicosapentaenoic acid. Step 2 was modelled accounting for Step 1 non-attainment. With current treatment, residual CV risk was 22%, 32%, and 60% in the low, moderate, and pooled (very) high European risk regions, respectively. Step 2 could prevent up to 198, 223 and 245 events per 1000 patients treated, respectively. Intensified LDLc reduction, colchicine, and DPI could be applied to most patients, preventing up to 57, 74, and 59 events per 1000 patients treated, respectively. Following Step 2, the number of patients with a CV risk of <10% could increase from 20%, 6.4%, and 0.5%, following Step 1, to 63%, 48%, and 12%, in the respective risk regions Conclusion With current treatment, residual CV risk in patients with ASCVD remains high across all European risk regions. The intensified Step 2 treatment options result in marked further reduction of residual CV risk in patients with established ASCVD. Lay summary Patients with established cardiovascular disease are at high risk for new cardiovascular events. The European Society of Cardiology guideline for the prevention of cardiovascular disease introduced a stepwise treatment approach. Step 1 in this approach are treatments that apply to all patients, and Step 2 are intensive treatments that can be prescribed to patients who are still at high risk of new events even with Step 1 treatments. The current study investigates the effect of Steps 1 and 2 on the risk of cardiovascular disease in 27 094 patients all across Europe. With the conventional treatments of Step 1 the risk of cardiovascular disease remains high, with a 10-year risk of new events higher than 10% in 80–99% of patients. The intensive treatment options from Step 2 could prevent additional 198–245 new cardiovascular events for every 1000 patients that are treated. With intensive treatment, up to 63% of patients could achieve a 10-year risk of new cardiovascular disease below 10%. Key findings Guideline-recommended intensive treatment of patients with cardiovascular disease could prevent additional 198–245 new cardiovascular events for every 1000 patients treated

Recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding with extended anticoagulation: the VTE-PREDICT risk score

Aims Deciding to stop or continue anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE) after initial treatment is challenging, as individual risks of recurrence and bleeding are heterogeneous. The present study aimed to develop and externally validate models for predicting 5-year risks of recurrence and bleeding in patients with VTE without cancer who completed at least 3 months of initial treatment, which can be used to estimate individual absolute benefits and harms of extended anticoagulation. Methods and results Competing risk-adjusted models were derived to predict recurrent VTE and clinically relevant bleeding (non-major and major) using 14 readily available patient characteristics. The models were derived from combined individual patient data from the Bleeding Risk Study, Hokusai-VTE, PREFER-VTE, RE-MEDY, and RE-SONATE (n = 15,141, 220 recurrences, 189 bleeding events). External validity was assessed in the Danish VTE cohort, EINSTEIN-CHOICE, GARFIELD-VTE, MEGA, and Tromsø studies (n = 59 257, 2283 recurrences, 3335 bleeding events). Absolute treatment effects were estimated by combining the models with hazard ratios from trials and meta-analyses. External validation in different settings showed agreement between predicted and observed risks up to 5 years, with C-statistics ranging from 0.48–0.71 (recurrence) and 0.61–0.68 (bleeding). In the Danish VTE cohort, 5-year risks ranged from 4% to 19% for recurrent VTE and 1% –19% for bleeding. Conclusion The VTE-PREDICT risk score can be applied to estimate the effect of extended anticoagulant treatment for individual patients with VTE and to support shared decision-making

Long-term lifestyle change and risk of mortality and type 2 diabetes in patients with cardiovascular disease

AIMS: To quantify the relationship between self-reported, long-term lifestyle changes (smoking, waist circumference, physical activity, and alcohol consumption) and clinical outcomes in patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were used from 2011 participants (78% male, age 57 ± 9 years) from the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease cohort who returned for a re-assessment visit (SMART2) after ∼10 years. Self-reported lifestyle change was classified as persistently healthy, improved, worsened, or persistently unhealthy. Cox proportional hazard models were used to quantify the relationship between lifestyle changes and the risk of (cardiovascular) mortality and incident Type 2 diabetes (T2D). Fifty-seven per cent of participants was persistently healthy, 17% improved their lifestyle, 8% worsened, and 17% was persistently unhealthy. During a median follow-up time of 6.1 (inter-quartile range 3.6-9.6) years after the SMART2 visit, 285 deaths occurred, and 99 new T2D diagnoses were made. Compared with a persistently unhealthy lifestyle, individuals who maintained a healthy lifestyle had a lower risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.36-0.63], cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.38-0.87), and incident T2D (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.28-0.73). Similarly, those who improved their lifestyle had a lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.37-0.74), cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.26-0.81), and incident T2D (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.27-0.92). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that maintaining or adopting a healthy lifestyle can significantly lower mortality and incident T2D risk in CVD patients. This study emphasizes the importance of ongoing lifestyle optimization in CVD patients, highlighting the potential for positive change regardless of previous lifestyle habits

Physical exercise volume, type, and intensity and risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events in patients with cardiovascular disease: a mediation analysis

AIMS: To estimate the relation between physical exercise volume, type, and intensity with all-cause mortality and recurrent vascular events in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and to quantify to what extent traditional cardiovascular risk factors mediate these relations. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the prospective UCC-SMART cohort ( N = 8660), the associations of clinical endpoints and physical exercise volume (metabolic equivalent of task hours per week, METh/wk), type (endurance vs. endurance + resistance), and intensity (moderate vs. vigorous) were estimated using multivariable-adjusted Cox models. The proportion mediated effect (PME) through body mass index, systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, insulin sensitivity, and systemic inflammation was assessed using structural equation models. Sixty-one percent of patients (73% male, age 61 ± 10 years, >70% receiving lipid-lowering and blood pressure-lowering medications) reported that they did not exercise. Over a median follow-up of 9.5 years [interquartile range (IQR) 5.1-14.0], 2256 deaths and 1828 recurrent vascular events occurred. The association between exercise volume had a reverse J-shape with a nadir at 29 (95% CI 24-29) METh/wk, corresponding with a HR 0.56 (95% CI 0.48-0.64) for all-cause mortality and HR 0.63 (95% CI 0.55-0.73) for recurrent vascular events compared with no exercise. Up to 38% (95% CI 24-61) of the association was mediated through the assessed risk factors of which insulin sensitivity (PME up to 12%, 95% CI 5-25) and systemic inflammation (PME up to 18%, 95% CI 9-37) were the most important. CONCLUSION: Regular physical exercise is significantly related with reduced risks of all-cause mortality and recurrent vascular events in patients with CVD. In this population with high rates of lipid-lowering and blood pressure--lowering medication use, exercise benefits were mainly mediated through systemic inflammation and insulin resistance

Lifetime and 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with type 1 diabetes: The LIFE-T1D model

AIMS: To develop and externally validate the LIFE-T1D model for the estimation of lifetime and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with type 1 diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A sex-specific competing risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model was derived in individuals with type 1 diabetes without prior CVD from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR), using age as the time axis. Predictors included age at diabetes onset, smoking status, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, glycated haemoglobin level, estimated glomerular filtration rate, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, albuminuria and retinopathy. The model was externally validated in the Danish Funen Diabetes Database (FDDB) and the UK Biobank. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 11.8 years (interquartile interval 6.1-17.1 years), 4608 CVD events and 1316 non-CVD deaths were observed in the NDR (n = 39 756). The internal validation c-statistic was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-0.85) and the external validation c-statistics were 0.77 (95% CI 0.74-0.81) for the FDDB (n = 2709) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.77) for the UK Biobank (n = 1022). Predicted risks were consistent with the observed incidence in the derivation and both validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The LIFE-T1D model can estimate lifetime risk of CVD and CVD-free life expectancy in individuals with type 1 diabetes without previous CVD. This model can facilitate individualized CVD prevention among individuals with type 1 diabetes. Validation in additional cohorts will improve future clinical implementation

Estimating individual lifetime risk of incident cardiovascular events in adults with type 2 diabetes: an update and geographical calibration of the DIAbetes Lifetime perspective model (DIAL2)

Background: The 2021 ESC cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend the use of (lifetime) risk prediction models to aid decisions regarding intensified preventive treatment options in adults with type 2 diabetes, e.g. the DIAbetes Lifetime perspective model (DIAL model). The aim of this study was to update the DIAL-model using contemporary and representative registry data (DIAL2) and to systematically calibrate the model for use in other European countries. Methods and Results: The DIAL2 model was derived in 467,856 people with type 2 diabetes without a history of CVD from the Swedish National Diabetes Register, with a median follow-up of 7.3 years (IQR 4.0-10.6 years) and comprising 63,824 CVD (including fatal CVD, nonfatal stroke and nonfatal myocardial infarction) events and 66,048 non-CVD mortality events. The model was systematically recalibrated to Europe’s low and moderate risk region using contemporary incidence data and mean risk factor distributions. The recalibrated DIAL2 model was externally validated in 218,267 individuals with type 2 diabetes from the Scottish Care Information – Diabetes (SCID) and Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). In these individuals, 43,074 CVD events and 27,115 non-CVD fatal events were observed. The DIAL2 model discriminated well, with C-indices of 0.732 (95%CI 0.726-0.739) in CPRD and 0.700 (95%CI 0.691-0.709) in SCID. Interpretation: The recalibrated DIAL2 model provides a useful tool for the prediction of CVD-free life expectancy and lifetime CVD risk for people with type 2 diabetes without previous CVD in the European low and moderate risk regions. These long-term individualized measures of CVD risk are well suited for shared decision making in clinical practice as recommended by the 2021 CVD ESC prevention guidelines

Cohort profile: the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease (UCC-SMART) Study-an ongoing prospective cohort study of patients at high cardiovascular risk in the Netherlands

Purpose The Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease (UCC-SMART) Study is an ongoing prospective single-centre cohort study with the aim to assess important determinants and the prognosis of cardiovascular disease progression. This article provides an update of the rationale, design, included patients, measurements and findings from the start in 1996 to date. Participants The UCC-SMART Study includes patients aged 18-90 years referred to the University Medical Center Utrecht, the Netherlands, for management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) or severe cardiovascular risk factors. Since September 1996, a total of 14 830 patients have been included. Upon inclusion, patients undergo a standardised screening programme, including questionnaires, vital signs, laboratory measurements, an ECG, vascular ultrasound of carotid arteries and aorta, ankle-brachial index and ultrasound measurements of adipose tissue, kidney size and intima-media thickness. Outcomes of interest are collected through annual questionnaires and adjudicated by an endpoint committee. Findings to date By May 2022, the included patients contributed to a total follow-up time of over 134 000 person-years. During follow-up, 2259 patients suffered a vascular endpoint (including non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke and vascular death) and 2794 all-cause deaths, 943 incident cases of diabetes and 2139 incident cases of cancer were observed up until January 2020. The UCC-SMART cohort contributed to over 350 articles published in peer-reviewed journals, including prediction models recommended by the 2021 European Society of Cardiology CVD prevention guidelines. Future plans The UCC-SMART Study guarantees an infrastructure for research in patients at high cardiovascular risk. The cohort will continue to include about 600 patients yearly and follow-up will be ongoing to ensure an up-to-date cohort in accordance with current healthcare and scientific knowledge. In the near future, UCC-SMART will be enriched by echocardiography, and a food frequency questionnaire at baseline enabling the assessment of associations between nutrition and CVD and diabetes

An alternative approach identified optimal risk thresholds for treatment indication: an illustration in coronary heart disease.

Treatment thresholds based on risk predictions can be optimized by considering various health (economic) outcomes and performing marginal analyses, but this is rarely performed. We demonstrate a general approach to identify treatment thresholds optimizing individual health (economic) outcomes, illustrated for statin treatment based on 10-year coronary heart disease (CHD) risk predicted by the Framingham risk score