32 research outputs found

    RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION IN BOLIVIA: AN ESCAPE BOAT?

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    This paper studies rural-urban migration in Bolivia. Domestic migration usually works as an equalization mechanism, in which regions with fewer economic opportunities send migrants to more dynamic regions. We model the migration decision and take into account the possibility of self-selection for computing the returns to migration. We present selectivity corrected quantile regression models for earnings of both migrants and non-migrants in urban and metropolitan areas. We find that migrants receive a premium at low and median quantiles of the urban/metro conditional earnings distribution. This premium is somewhat diminished by a negative selectivity correction for migrants with lower probabilities of migration.

    USE OF SURVEY DESIGN FOR THE EVALUATION OF SOCIAL PROGRAMS: THE PNAD AND PETI

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    The structure of some household surveys allows the evaluation of social programs which are implemented gradually by municipality and whose objectives are measurable by survey variables. Such evaluations do not require over sampling of areas in which the program was implemented, nor the application of additional questionnaires, while providing baseline data and non-experimental comparison groups. We use the PNAD survey to evaluate the impact of the Program for the Eradication of Child Labor on child labor, schooling, and income for municipalities which entered the program from 1997-1999. We present results both from a reflexive comparison and from matching municipalities to form a comparison group and measuring the difference in differences (D in D). Only the reduction of child labor is robust to the D in D analysis, while the reflexive results also demonstrate a significant increase in school attendance. We find the program to be more effective in smaller municipalities as suggested by Rocha (1999).

    Metodologia e resultados da avaliação do programa de erradicação do trabalho infantil

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    A estrutura de algumas pesquisas domiciliares permite a avaliação do impacto de programas sociais cuja implementação é gradual e de município a município cujos objetivos são adequadamente medidos usando as variáveis da dita pesquisa. Neste trabalho, usa-se a Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD) para estimar o impacto do Programa de Erradicação do Trabalho Infantil (Peti) sobre o trabalho de crianças, freqüência à escola e renda para os municípios cuja inclusão no programa se deu entre 1997 e 1999. Os resultados apresentados foram obtidos mediante a técnica de matching de Heckman, que consiste em encontrar, para cada município no programa, um município de comparação similar mas que não participa. Com este grupo de controle pode-se usar diferenças em diferenças para medir o impacto do programa. Os resultados mostram impactos positivos apenas sobre o trabalho infantil, que é o objetivo principal do programa. ________________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACTThe structure of some household surveys allows the evaluation of social programs which are implemented gradually by municipality and whose objectives are measurable by survey variables. We use the PNAD survey to evaluate the impact of the Program for the Eradication of Child Labor (Peti) on child labor, schooling, and income for municipalities which entered the program from 1997-1999. We present bare results and results obtained from “matching” municipalities to form a control group (differences in differences). Only the child labor impact is robust to the differences in differences analysis, which is the primary objective of the program

    Export potential of Brazilian industrial firms

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    Most of the recent astonishing export growth in Brazil came from firms which already exported. The export base was not able to grow at the same pace. Since expanding the export base may have several positive effects on firms' productivity and size, in this paper we provide a four-level classification of Brazilian industrial firms according to their potential to export, and we identify a subset of non-exporting firms which are potential exporters. The effects of export stimulating policies may be improved by focusing more closely on these firms.O recente crescimento das exportações no Brasil se baseou fortemente naquelas firmas já exportadoras, e a base exportadora não conseguiu acompanhar o mesmo ritmo de crescimento. Considerando que expandir a base exportadora pode ter efeitos positivos sobre a produtividade e tamanho das firmas, neste artigo classificamos as firmas industriais brasileiras em quatro níveis de acordo com o potencial exportador, e especialmente identificamos um subconjunto de firmas que não exportam mas que são potenciais exportadoras. Os efeitos das políticas de promoção às exportações podem ser maximizados se elas forem focalizadas nestas firmas

    Potencial exportador das firmas industriais brasileiras

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    A partir de uma aplicação não usual da técnica propensity score matching (PSM), elaborou-se uma classificação de potencial exportador composta de quatro níveis que,sobretudo, identifica firmas não exportadoras com nível de competitividade internacional semelhante ao de firmas que já o fazem. Chegou-se a essa conclusão comparando várias características produtivas e tecnológicas dessas potenciais exportadoras com as das firmas exportadoras, observando-se poucas diferenças entre elas. Políticas de promoção das exportações podem ter seus impactos aumentados se forem mais focalizadas nesse grupo. Caso essas potenciais exportadoras de 2000 viessem a exportarem 2001, haveria um incremento de 17% no volume exportado e uma ampliação significativa da base exportadora de 64%. _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACTWe use Propensity Score Matching in a novel way to classify Brazilian industrial firms according to their potential to export. Our four-level classification specifically identifies non-exporting firms which have a degree of international competitiveness similar to firms which export. This conclusion is drawn by comparing various productive and technological characteristics of these potential exporters with those of exporting firms and observing little or no difference between the two groups. The effects of export stimulating policies may be improved by focusing more closely on these firms. If the potential exporters from 2000 began to export in 2001, export volume would increase 17% and the export base would be augmented by 64%

    POTENCIAL EXPORTADOR DAS FIRMAS INDUSTRIAIS BRASILEIRAS

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    We use Propensity Score Matching in an novel way to classify Brazilian industrial firms according to their potential to export. Our four-level classification specifically identifies non-exporting firms which have a degree of international competitiveness similar to firms which export. This conclusion is drawn by comparing various productive and technological characteristics of these potential exporters with those of exporting firms and observing little or no difference between the two groups. The effects of export stimulating policies may be improved by focusing more closely on these firms. If the potential exporters from 2000 began to export in 2001, export volume would increase 17% and the export base would be augmented by 64%.

    Impacts of the Brazilian science and technology sectoral funds on the industrial firms’ R&D inputs and outputs

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    Os fundos setoriais foram instituídos no final da década de 1990, com o propósito de criar condições mais estáveis de financiamento público às atividades de ciência, tecnologia e inovação (CT&I) no Brasil. De maneira análoga ao que se observa com outros instrumentos de incentivo à inovação nas empresas, a expectativa é que o acesso aos fundos setoriais contribuiria para o aumento dos esforços tecnológicos e para o alcance de melhores resultados pelas empresas. O objetivo deste trabalho é, portanto, avaliar o impacto desses fundos sobre os esforços tecnológicos e sobre os resultados das empresas industriais no Brasil, no período 2001 a 2006. A base teórica para a discussão é a literatura internacional que tem, recorrentemente, analisado o efeito crowding in ou crowding out de políticas de apoio à inovação nas empresas. Esses trabalhos buscam verificar se as políticas adotadas complementam os recursos alocados nas atividades de inovação pelas empresas ou se haveria simplesmente a substituição desses últimos por recursos públicos. Neste artigo, uma técnica quasi-experimental é aplicada para comparar as empresas que acessaram os fundos setoriais com aquelas que não os acessaram, usando dados de painel que incluem informações sobre esforços tecnológicos e resultados. O grupo de controle é definido com base no algoritmo de Propensity Score Matching (PSM), visando eliminar o viés de seleção no acesso aos fundos, o que faz com que, a priori, as empresas que acessam esses recursos trilhem uma trajetória distinta daquelas que não acessam. Estimativas das diferenças percentuais das taxas de crescimento dos esforços tecnológicos indicam significativo descolamento entre os grupos de tratamento e controle e permitem que se rejeite a hipótese de crowding out. Estima-se que o diferencial na taxa de crescimento do PoTec – que corresponde à proxy para os esforços tecnológicos – seja de 6,8 p.p. no primeiro ano, 11,5 p.p. no segundo, 15,7 p.p. no terceiro e 26,7 p.p. no quarto ano após o acesso. Os fundos setoriais apresentam ainda impacto positivo e significativo no pessoal ocupado total, embora apenas um impacto marginalmente significante nas exportações de alto conteúdo tecnológico tenha sido observado após quatro anos nas empresas que compõem o grupo de tratamento. Adicionalmente, uma análise preliminar dos impactos dos diferentes instrumentos que compõem os fundos setoriais permite associar a maior parte dos impactos dos recursos à concessão de crédito em condições mais favoráveis. _________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACTThe Brazilian science and technology sectoral funds were established at the end of the 1990s, aiming at providing more stable financial resources to science, technology, and innovation (ST&I) activities in the country. Similarly to other instruments used to foster innovation at the firm level, the sectoral funds are expected to increase firms’ technological efforts as well as their result indicators. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impacts of these funds on the industrial firms’ R&D inputs and outputs in Brazil during the period between 2001 and 2006. Several papers have discussed the additionality or crowding out effects of innovation policies that involve grants and fiscal incentives, for example. In this paper, the firms which accessed the sectoral funds are compared with the ones which did not, based upon the path followed by their indicators of technological efforts (R&D inputs) and results (R&D outputs). The control group was defined using a Propensity Score Matching (PSM) procedure aiming at reducing the selection bias that makes firms which accessed the funds follow a different path when compared to the ones that did not. Percentage differencein- differences indicate a significant detachment between the technological efforts of the treatment and control groups and permit the hypothesis of crowding out to be rejected. The growth differential on the PoTec variable – the proxy for technological efforts – is estimated in 6.8 p.p. in the first year, 11.5 in the second, 15.7 p.p. in the third and 26.7 p.p. in the fourth year after the access to the funds. The sectoral funds also presented a significant and positive impact on the number of employees, although only a marginally significant impact on high-tech exports was observed four years after the treatment. Additionally, a preliminary analysis of the impacts of the different instruments that form the sectoral funds suggests that most impacts observed in the technological efforts can be associated to the credit at favorable conditions
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