Time series prediction via aggregation : an oracle bound including numerical cost

We address the problem of forecasting a time series meeting the Causal Bernoulli Shift model, using a parametric set of predictors. The aggregation technique provides a predictor with well established and quite satisfying theoretical properties expressed by an oracle inequality for the prediction risk. The numerical computation of the aggregated predictor usually relies on a Markov chain Monte Carlo method whose convergence should be evaluated. In particular, it is crucial to bound the number of simulations needed to achieve a numerical precision of the same order as the prediction risk. In this direction we present a fairly general result which can be seen as an oracle inequality including the numerical cost of the predictor computation. The numerical cost appears by letting the oracle inequality depend on the number of simulations required in the Monte Carlo approximation. Some numerical experiments are then carried out to support our findings

On strong causal binomial approximation for stochastic processes

This paper considers binomial approximation of continuous time stochastic processes. It is shown that, under some mild integrability conditions, a process can be approximated in mean square sense and in other strong metrics by binomial processes, i.e., by processes with fixed size binary increments at sampling points. Moreover, this approximation can be causal, i.e., at every time it requires only past historical values of the underlying process. In addition, possibility of approximation of solutions of stochastic differential equations by solutions of ordinary equations with binary noise is established. Some consequences for the financial modelling and options pricing models are discussed

Black Holes as Effective Geometries

Gravitational entropy arises in string theory via coarse graining over an underlying space of microstates. In this review we would like to address the question of how the classical black hole geometry itself arises as an effective or approximate description of a pure state, in a closed string theory, which semiclassical observers are unable to distinguish from the "naive" geometry. In cases with enough supersymmetry it has been possible to explicitly construct these microstates in spacetime, and understand how coarse-graining of non-singular, horizon-free objects can lead to an effective description as an extremal black hole. We discuss how these results arise for examples in Type II string theory on AdS_5 x S^5 and on AdS_3 x S^3 x T^4 that preserve 16 and 8 supercharges respectively. For such a picture of black holes as effective geometries to extend to cases with finite horizon area the scale of quantum effects in gravity would have to extend well beyond the vicinity of the singularities in the effective theory. By studying examples in M-theory on AdS_3 x S^2 x CY that preserve 4 supersymmetries we show how this can happen.Comment: Review based on lectures of JdB at CERN RTN Winter School and of VB at PIMS Summer School. 68 pages. Added reference

Protein-retention expansion microscopy of cells and tissues labeled using standard fluorescent proteins and antibodies

Expansion microscopy (ExM) enables imaging of preserved specimens with nanoscale precision on diffraction-limited instead of specialized super-resolution microscopes. ExM works by physically separating fluorescent probes after anchoring them to a swellable gel. The first ExM method did not result in the retention of native proteins in the gel and relied on custom-made reagents that are not widely available. Here we describe protein retention ExM (proExM), a variant of ExM in which proteins are anchored to the swellable gel, allowing the use of conventional fluorescently labeled antibodies and streptavidin, and fluorescent proteins. We validated and demonstrated the utility of proExM for multicolor super-resolution (~70 nm) imaging of cells and mammalian tissues on conventional microscopes.United States. National Institutes of Health (1R01GM104948)United States. National Institutes of Health (1DP1NS087724)United States. National Institutes of Health ( NIH 1R01EY023173)United States. National Institutes of Health (1U01MH106011

Context-Aware Tuples for the Ambient

In tuple space approaches to context-aware mobile systems, the notion of context is defined by the presence or absence of certain tuples in the tuple space. Existing approaches define such presence either by collocation of devices holding the tuples or by replication of those tuples across all devices. We show that both approaches can lead to an erroneous perception of context. The former ties the perception of context to network connectivity which does not always yield the expected result. The latter causes context to be perceived even if a device has left that context a long time ago. We propose a tuple space approach in which tuples themselves carry a predicate that determines whether they are in the right context or not. We present a practical API for our approach and show its use by means of the implementation of a mobile game

Ubiquitous robust communications for emergency response using multi-operator heterogeneous networks

A number of disasters in various places of the planet have caused an extensive loss of lives, severe damages to properties and the environment, as well as a tremendous shock to the survivors. For relief and mitigation operations, emergency responders are immediately dispatched to the disaster areas. Ubiquitous and robust communications during the emergency response operations are of paramount importance. Nevertheless, various reports have highlighted that after many devastating events, the current technologies used, failed to support the mission critical communications, resulting in further loss of lives. Inefficiencies of the current communications used for emergency response include lack of technology inter-operability between different jurisdictions, and high vulnerability due to their centralized infrastructure. In this article, we propose a flexible network architecture that provides a common networking platform for heterogeneous multi-operator networks, for interoperation in case of emergencies. A wireless mesh network is the main part of the proposed architecture and this provides a back-up network in case of emergencies. We first describe the shortcomings and limitations of the current technologies, and then we address issues related to the applications and functionalities a future emergency response network should support. Furthermore, we describe the necessary requirements for a flexible, secure, robust, and QoS-aware emergency response multi-operator architecture, and then we suggest several schemes that can be adopted by our proposed architecture to meet those requirements. In addition, we suggest several methods for the re-tasking of communication means owned by independent individuals to provide support during emergencies. In order to investigate the feasibility of multimedia transmission over a wireless mesh network, we measured the performance of a video streaming application in a real wireless metropolitan multi-radio mesh network, showing that the mesh network can meet the requirements for high quality video transmissions

The joint influence of marital status, interpregnancy interval, and neighborhood on small for gestational age birth: a retrospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Interpregnancy interval (IPI), marital status, and neighborhood are independently associated with birth outcomes. The joint contribution of these exposures has not been evaluated. We tested for effect modification between IPI and marriage, controlling for neighborhood.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We analyzed a cohort of 98,330 live births in Montréal, Canada from 1997–2001 to assess IPI and marital status in relation to small for gestational age (SGA) birth. Births were categorized as subsequent-born with <it>short </it>(<12 months), <it>intermediate </it>(12–35 months), or <it>long </it>(36+ months) IPI, or as firstborn. The data had a 2-level hierarchical structure, with births nested in 49 neighborhoods. We used multilevel logistic regression to obtain adjusted effect estimates.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Marital status modified the association between IPI and SGA birth. Being unmarried relative to married was associated with SGA birth for all IPI categories, particularly for subsequent births with <it>short </it>(odds ratio [OR] 1.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31–1.95) and <it>intermediate </it>(OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.26–1.74) IPIs. Subsequent births had a lower likelihood of SGA birth than firstborns. <it>Intermediate </it>IPIs were more protective for married (OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.47–0.54) than unmarried mothers (OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.56–0.76).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Being unmarried increases the likelihood of SGA birth as the IPI shortens, and the protective effect of <it>intermediate </it>IPIs is reduced in unmarried mothers. Marital status should be considered in recommending particular IPIs as an intervention to improve birth outcomes.</p

Dietary lysine-to-energy ratios for managing growth and pubertal development in replacement gilts

Objective: Our objective was to determine growth rates, body composition, and pubertal development of replacement gilts fed diets with different ratios of standardized ileal digestible (SID) lysine to ME. Materials and Methods: Diets with low, medium, and high ratios of SID lysine to ME (grower: 2.3, 2.6, and 2.8; and, finisher; 1.7, 1.9, and 2.1 g/Mcal) were fed from 100 to 200 d of age, after which gilts were moved from the gilt development unit to sow farms. Boar exposure and estrus detection began at 160 d of age and continued until first detected estrus. Estimates of BW and body composition were determined at 100, 142, 160, and 200 d of age and at puberty. Results and Discussion: Body weights and growth rates were reduced (P \u3c 0.05) as dietary SID lysine–to– ME ratio decreased. Greater SID lysine–to–ME ratios increased the number of gilts that exhibited estrus upon boar exposure, increased the number of gilts with a spontaneous first estrus, reduced the number of gilts requiring P.G.600 (Merck Animal Health, Kenilworth, NJ), and decreased age at first estrus (P \u3c 0.05). Slower growing gilts that weighed less with less backfat were more likely to require P.G.600 to induce puberty (P \u3c 0.05). Implications and Applications: Reducing SID lysine– to–ME ratios in gilt diets can increase the number of gilts within optimal BW range at first estrus, but overall pubertal development is delayed if ratios are reduced below 2.8 and 2.1 g of SID lysine to megacalorie of ME in grower and finisher diets, respectively