Improving the twilight model for polar cap absorption nowcasts

During Solar Proton Events (SPE), energetic protons ionize the polar mesosphere causing HF radiowave attenuation, more strongly on the dayside where the effective recombination coefficient, αeff, is low. Polar cap absorption (PCA) models predict the 30 MHz cosmic noise absorption, A, measured by riometers, based on real-time measurements of the integrated proton flux-energy spectrum, J. However, empirical models in common use cannot account for regional and day-to-day variations in the day- and nighttime profiles of αeff(z) or the related sensitivity parameter, m=A/√J. Large prediction errors occur during twilight when m changes rapidly, and due to errors locating the rigidity cutoff latitude. Modeling the twilight change in m as a linear or Gauss error-function transition over a range of solar-zenith angles (χl < χ < χu) provides a better fit to measurements than selecting day or night αeff profiles based on the Earth-shadow height. Optimal model parameters were determined for several polar cap riometers for large SPEs in 1998-2005. The optimal χl parameter was found to be most variable, with smaller values (as low as 60°) post-sunrise compared with pre-sunset, and with positive correlation between riometers over a wide area. Day and night values of m exhibited higher correlation for closely spaced riometers. A nowcast simulation is presented in which rigidity boundary latitude and twilight model parameters are optimized by assimilating age-weighted measurements from 25 riometers. The technique reduces model bias, and root-mean-squared errors are reduced by up to 30% compared with a model employing no riometer data assimilation

Investigating energetic electron precipitation through combining ground-based and balloon observations

A detailed comparison is undertaken of the energetic electron spectra and fluxes of two precipitation events that were observed in 18/19 January 2013. A novel but powerful technique of combining simultaneous ground-based subionospheric radio wave data and riometer absorption measurements with X-ray fluxes from a Balloon Array for Relativistic Radiation-belt Electron Losses (BARREL) balloon is used for the first time as an example of the analysis procedure. The two precipitation events are observed by all three instruments, and the relative timing is used to provide information/insight into the spatial extent and evolution of the precipitation regions. The two regions were found to be moving westward with drift periods of 5–11 h and with longitudinal dimensions of ~20° and ~70° (1.5–3.5 h of magnetic local time). The electron precipitation spectra during the events can be best represented by a peaked energy spectrum, with the peak in flux occurring at ~1–1.2 MeV. This suggests that the radiation belt loss mechanism occurring is an energy-selective process, rather than one that precipitates the ambient trapped population. The motion, size, and energy spectra of the patches are consistent with electromagnetic ion cyclotron-induced electron precipitation driven by injected 10–100 keV protons. Radio wave modeling calculations applying the balloon-based fluxes were used for the first time and successfully reproduced the ground-based subionospheric radio wave and riometer observations, thus finding strong agreement between the observations and the BARREL measurements

Progress towards a propagation prediction service for HF communications with aircraft on trans-polar routes

Commercial airlines began operations over polar routes in 1999 with a small number of proving flights. By 2014 the number had increased to in excess of 12,000 flights per year, and further increases are expected. For safe operations, the aircraft have to be able to communicate with air traffic control centres at all times. This is achieved by VHF links whilst within range of the widespread network of ground stations, and is by HF radio in remote areas such as the Polar regions, the North Atlantic and Pacific where VHF ground infrastructure does not exist. Furthermore, the Russian side of the pole only has HF capability. Researchers at the University of Leicester and at Lancaster University have developed various models (outlined below) that can be employed in HF radio propagation predictions. It is anticipated that these models will form the basis of an HF forecasting and nowcasting service for the airline industry. Propagation coverage predictions make use of numerical ray tracing to estimate the ray paths through a model ionosphere. Initially, a background ionospheric model is produced, which is then perturbed to include the various ionospheric features prevalent at high latitudes (in particular patches, arcs, auroral zone irregularities and the mid-latitude trough) that significantly affect the propagation of the radio signals. The approach that we are currently adopting is to start with the IRI and to perturb this based on measurements made near to the time and area of interest to form the basis of the background ionospheric model. This is then further perturbed to include features such as the convecting patches, the parameters of which may also be informed by measurements. A significant problem is the high variability of the high latitude ionosphere, and the relative scarcity of real-time measurements over the region. Real time measurements that we will use as the basis for perturbing the IRI include ionosonde soundings from, e.g. the GIRO database, and TEC measurements from the IGS network. Real-time modelling of HF radiowave absorption in the D-region ionosphere is also included. The geostationary GOES satellites provide real-time information on X-ray flux (causing shortwave fadeout during solar flares) and the flux of precipitating energetic protons which correlates strongly with Polar Cap Absorption (PCA). Real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field measurements from the ACE or DSCOVR spacecraft provide geomagnetic index estimates used to model the location of both auroral absorption (on a probabilistic basis) and the proton rigidity cutoff boundary that defines the latitudinal extent of PCA during solar proton events (SPE). Empirical climatological models have been uniquely adapted to assimilate recent measurements of cosmic noise absorption (at 30 MHz) from a large array of riometers in Canada and Scandinavia. The model parameters are continuously optimised and updated to account for regional and temporal variations in ionospheric composition (and hence HF absorption rate (dB/km)) that can change significantly during the course of an SPE, for example. Real-time optimisation during SPE can also improve estimates of the proton rigidity cutoff and improve the modelled ionospheric response function absorption vs. zenith angle) at twilight

Real-time HF Radio Absorption Maps Incorporating Riometer and Satellite Measurements

A real-time model of HF radio propagation conditions is being developed as a service for aircraft communications at high latitudes. An essential component of this is a real-time map of the absorption of HF (3-30 MHz) radio signals in the D-region ionosphere. Empirical, climatological Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) models in common usage cannot account for day-to-day variations in ionospheric composition and are inaccurate during the large changes in recombination rate at twilight. However, parameters of such models may be optimised using an age-weighted regression to absorption measurements from riometers in Canada and Scandinavia. Such parameters include the day- and night-time sensitivity to proton flux as measured on a geostationary satellite (GOES). Modelling the twilight transition as a linear or Gauss error function over a range of solar-zenith angles (χl < χ < χu) is found to provide greater accuracy than ‘Earth shadow’ methods (as applied in the Sodankylä Ionospheric Chemistry (SIC) model, for example) due to a more gradual ionospheric response for χ < 90°. The fitted χl parameter is found to be most variable, with smaller values (as low as 60°) post-sunrise compared with pre-sunset. Correlation coefficients of model parameters between riometers are presented and these provide a means of appropriately weighting individual riometer contributions in an assimilative PCA model. At times outside of PCA events, the probability of absorption in the auroral zones is related to the energetic electron flux inside the precipitation loss cone, as measured on the polar-orbiting POES satellites. This varies with magnetic local time, magnetic latitude and geomagnetic activity, and its relation to the real-time solar wind – magnetospheric coupling function [Newell et al., 2007] will be presented

icebearcanada/cavsiopy: v1.2.2

slew_example.py: added to examples in attitude_analysis.py: functions in utils.py and complement_missing_sofa.py are now embedded in attitude_analysis.py use_rotation_matrices.py: utils.py and missing_complement_sofa.py imports removed attitude_analysis.spacecraft_distance_from_a_point: fixed a minor bug, which caused the distance array to return empty. requirements.txt: version numbers were added for dependencies. .readthedocs.yaml: version number and installation instructions corrected

icebearcanada/cavsiopy: v1.1.1

patch release: 'attitude_3d_ground_quiver' has been enhanced to display a line connecting the subsatellite point with the ground target on the ground map. name changes for several functions in auxiliary directory

Observations of HF radio propagation at high latitudes and predictions using data-driven simulations

Researchers at the University of Leicester, Lancaster University and St Petersburg State University have developed various models that can be employed in HF radio propagation predictions. Signal coverage predictions make use of numerical ray tracing to estimate the ray paths through a model ionosphere that includes various ionospheric features prevalent at high latitudes (in particular patches, arcs, ionisation tongue, auroral zone irregularities and the mid-latitude trough). Modelling of D-region absorption is also included. GOES satellites provide information on X-ray flux (causing shortwave fadeout during solar flares) and precipitating energetic proton flux which correlates strongly with Polar Cap Absorption (PCA). Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field measurements from the ACE or DSCOVR spacecraft provide geomagnetic index estimates used to model the location of both auroral absorption and the proton rigidity cutoff boundary that defines the latitudinal extent of PCA during solar proton events (SPE). This paper presents measurements and associated modelling for a 9 day period

Near real-time input to an HF propagation model for nowcasting of HF communications with aircraft on polar routes

The authors have previously reported on the development of an HF propagation model for signals reflected from the northerly regions of the ionosphere, and its validation by comparison with measurements made over a number of paths within the polar cap, crossing the auroral oval, and along the mid-latitude trough. The model incorporates various features (e.g. convecting patches of enhanced plasma density) of the polar ionosphere that are, in particular, responsible for off-great circle propagation and can lead to propagation at times and frequencies not expected from on-great circle propagation alone. Currently, the model drivers include ionosonde measurements and geomagnetic data from a period of several days spanning the time of interest. We have previously only examined the propagation effects on a historical basis, and have achieved good agreement between measurements and simulations

Observations of HF radio propagation at high latitudes and predictions using data-driven simulations

Researchers at the University of Leicester, Lancaster University and St Petersburg State University have developed various models that can be employed in HF radio propagation predictions. Signal coverage predictions make use of numerical ray tracing to estimate the ray paths through a model ionosphere that includes various ionospheric features prevalent at high latitudes (in particular patches, arcs, ionisation tongue, auroral zone irregularities and the mid-latitude trough). Modelling of D-region absorption is also included. GOES satellites provide information on X-ray flux (causing shortwave fadeout during solar flares) and precipitating energetic proton flux which correlates strongly with Polar Cap Absorption (PCA). Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field measurements from the ACE or DSCOVR spacecraft provide geomagnetic index estimates used to model the location of both auroral absorption and the proton rigidity cutoff boundary that defines the latitudinal extent of PCA during solar proton events (SPE). This paper presents measurements and associated modelling for a 9 day period