Original Article

The development of cognitive and socioemotional skills early in life influences later health and well-being. Existing estimates of unmet developmental potential in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are based on either measures of physical growth or proxy measures such as poverty. In this paper we aim to directly estimate the number of children in LMICs who would be reported by their caregivers to show low cognitive and/or socioemotional development.The present paper uses Early Childhood Development Index (ECDI) data collected between 2005 and 2015 from 99,222 3- and 4-y-old children living in 35 LMICs as part of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) programs. First, we estimate the prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional ECDI scores within our MICS/DHS sample. Next, we test a series of ordinary least squares regression models predicting low ECDI scores across our MICS/DHS sample countries based on country-level data from the Human Development Index (HDI) and the Nutrition Impact Model Study. We use cross-validation to select the model with the best predictive validity. We then apply this model to all LMICs to generate country-level estimates of the prevalence of low ECDI scores globally, as well as confidence intervals around these estimates. In the pooled MICS and DHS sample, 14.6% of children had low ECDI scores in the cognitive domain, 26.2% had low socioemotional scores, and 36.8% performed poorly in either or both domains. Country-level prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional scores on the ECDI was best represented by a model using the HDI as a predictor. Applying this model to all LMICs, we estimate that 80.8 million children ages 3 and 4 y (95% CI 48.1 million, 113.6 million) in LMICs experienced low cognitive and/or socioemotional development in 2010, with the largest number of affected children in sub-Saharan Africa (29.4.1 million; 43.8% of children ages 3 and 4 y), followed by South Asia (27.7 million; 37.7%) and the East Asia and Pacific region (15.1 million; 25.9%). Positive associations were found between low development scores and stunting, poverty, male sex, rural residence, and lack of cognitive stimulation. Additional research using more detailed developmental assessments across a larger number of LMICs is needed to address the limitations of the present study.The number of children globally failing to reach their developmental potential remains large. Additional research is needed to identify the specific causes of poor developmental outcomes in diverse settings, as well as potential context-specific interventions that might promote children's early cognitive and socioemotional well-being

Impact of scaling up prenatal nutrition interventions on human capital outcomes in low- and middle-income countries: a modeling analysis

BACKGROUND: Prenatal nutrition interventions can lead to improved birth outcomes, which in turn are associated with better education and human capital outcomes later in life. OBJECTIVE: We estimated the impact of scaling up iron-folic acid (IFA), calcium, multiple micronutrient (MMS), and balanced energy protein (BEP) supplementation for pregnant women, on human capital outcomes in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). METHODS: We used mathematical modeling with proportional reductions in adverse birth outcomes to estimate the potential gains in school years and lifetime income due to scaling up each prenatal nutrition intervention. Estimates of intervention effects on birth outcomes were derived from meta-analyses of randomized trials. Estimates of the associations between birth outcomes and schooling and lifetime income were derived from de novo meta-analyses of observational studies. RESULTS: Across 132 LMIC, scaling up prenatal nutrition interventions to 90% coverage was estimated to increase school years and lifetime income per birth cohort by: 2.28 million y (95% uncertainty intervals (UI): -0.44, 6.26) and $8.26 billion (95$18.9 billion (95% UI: 0.59, 44.6) for calcium; 5.02 million y (95% UI: 1.07, 11.0) and $18.1 billion (95$1.34 billion (95% UI: -1.10, 3.10 billion) for BEP supplementation. South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa tended to have the largest estimated regional gains in school years for scaling up each intervention due to the large population size and high burden of poor birth outcomes. Absolute income benefits for each intervention were estimated to be the largest in Latin America, where returns to education and incomes are higher relative to other regions. CONCLUSION: Increasing coverage of prenatal nutrition interventions in LMIC may lead to substantial gains in schooling and lifetime income. Decision makers should consider the potential long-term human capital returns of investments in maternal nutrition

Birth weight and adult earnings: a systematic review and meta-analysis

While substantial evidence has identified low birth weight (LBW; <2500 g) as a risk factor for early life morbidity, mortality and poor childhood development, relatively little is known on the links between birth weight and economic outcomes in adulthood. The objective of this study was to systematically review the economics (EconLit) and biomedical literature (Medline) and estimate the pooled association between birth weight and adult earnings. A total of 15 studies from mostly high-income countries were included. On average, each standard deviation increase in birth weight was associated with a 2.75% increase in annual earnings [(95% CI: 1.44 to 4.07); 9 estimates]. A negative, but not statistically significant, association was found between being born LBW and earnings, compared to individuals not born LBW [mean difference: -3.41% (95% CI: -7.55 to 0.73); 7 estimates]. No studies from low-income countries were identified and all studies were observational. Overall, birth weight was consistently associated with adult earnings, and therefore, interventions that improve birth weight may provide beneficial effects on adult economic outcomes

Large gains in schooling and income are possible from minimizing adverse birth outcomes in 121 low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study

While the global contributions of adverse birth outcomes to child morbidity and mortality is relatively well documented, the potential long-term schooling and economic consequences of adverse birth outcomes has not been estimated. We sought to quantify the potential schooling and lifetime income gains associated with reducing the excess prevalence of adverse birth outcomes in 121 low- and middle-income countries. We used a linear deterministic model to estimate the potential gains in schooling and lifetime income that may be achieved by attaining theoretical minimum prevalence of low birthweight, preterm birth and small-for-gestational age births at the national, regional, and global levels. We estimated that potential total gains across the 121 countries from reducing low birthweight to the theoretical minimum were 20.3 million school years (95% CI: 6.0,34.8) and US$68.8 billion (95$ 41.9 billion (95% CI: 6.1,80.9) in lifetime income. The potential gains from small-for-gestational age were 39.5 million (95% CI: 19.1,60.3) school years and US$113.6 billion (95% CI: 55.5,174.2) in lifetime income gained. In summary, reducing the excess prevalence of low birthweight, preterm birth or small-for-gestational age births in low- and middle-income countries may lead to substantial long-term human capital gains in addition to benefits on child mortality, growth, and development as well as on risk of non-communicable diseases in adults and other consequences across the life course

Early Childhood Development and Schooling Attainment: Longitudinal Evidence from British, Finnish and Philippine Birth Cohorts

Background While recent literature has highlighted the importance of early childhood development for later life outcomes, comparatively little is known regarding the relative importance of early physical and cognitive development in predicting educational attainment cross-culturally. Methods We used prospective data from three birth cohorts: the Northern Finland Birth Cohort of 1986 (NFBC1986), the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS1970), and the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey of 1983 (CLHNS) to assess the association of height-for-age z-score (HAZ) and cognitive development measured prior to age 8 with schooling attainment. Multivariate linear regression models were used to estimate baseline and adjusted associations. Results Both physical and cognitive development were highly predictive of adult educational attainment conditional on parental characteristics. The largest positive associations between physical development and schooling were found in the CLHNS (β = 0.53, 95%-CI: [0.32, 0.74]) with substantially smaller associations in the BCS1970 (β = 0.10, 95% CI [0.04, 0.16]) and the NFBC1986 (β = 0.06, 95% CI [-0.05, 0.16]). Strong associations between cognitive development and educational attainment were found for all three cohorts (NFBC1986: β = 0.22, 95%-CI: [0.12, 0.31], BCS1970: β = 0.58, 95%-CI: [0.52, 0.64], CLHNS: β = 1.08, 95%-CI: [0.88, 1.27]). Models jointly estimating educational associations of physical and cognitive development demonstrated weaker associations for physical development and minimal changes for cognitive development. Conclusion The results indicate that although physical and cognitive early development are both important predictors of educational attainment, cognitive development appears to play a particularly important role. The large degree of heterogeneity in the observed effect sizes suggest that the importance of early life physical growth and cognitive development is highly dependent on socioeconomic and institutional contexts

Training opportunities for noncommunicable diseases research in Latin America: A scoping review.

Objective: To identify gaps in postgraduate training and options for building capacity in noncommunicable disease (NCDs) research in Latin America. Methods: This was a scoping review of postgraduate opportunities in NCDs at top universities in Latin America and of training grants awarded by international funding bodies. Three global university rankings were considered-the QS Ranking, the Shanghai Ranking, and the Times Ranking. Latin American universities appearing in at least two of these were selected. University websites were searched for current graduate programs in biostatistics, epidemiology, global health, health economics, and public health. Information was extracted, summarized, and evaluated to identify any programs focused on NCDs. In addition, seven international funding bodies' websites were searched for training grants. Results: In all, 33 universities offering 72 postgraduate programs met the inclusion criteria. One of these programs was exclusively devoted to NCD, and 12 offered NCDs as a dissertation research topic. Only two training grants were awarded to a Latin American institution for NCD capacity building. There are few NCD research training programs in Latin America and only one program exclusively focused on NCDs. Conclusion: There seem to be few NCD-specific research training programs in Latin America. Leveraging existing programs and expanding those with a focus on NCDs could help enhance NCD research capacity in the region. These initiatives should be supported by international funding agencies through more funding opportunities

Multidimensional characterization of global food supply from 1961 to 2013

Food systems are increasingly globalized and interdependent, and diets around the world are changing. To characterize national food supplies and how they have changed can inform food policies that ensure national food security, support access to healthy diets and enhance environmental sustainability. Here we analysed data for 171 countries on the availability of 18 food groups from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization to identify and track multidimensional food supply patterns from 1961 to 2013. Four predominant food-group combinations were identified that explained almost 90% of the cross-country variance in food supply: animal source and sugar, vegetable, starchy root and fruit, and seafood and oilcrops. South Korea, China and Taiwan experienced the largest changes in food supply over the past five decades, with animal source foods and sugar, vegetables and seafood and oilcrops all becoming more abundant components of the food supply. In contrast, in many Western countries the supply of animal source foods and sugar declined. Meanwhile, there was remarkably little change in the food supply in countries in the sub-Saharan Africa region. These changes led to a partial global convergence in the national supply of animal source foods and sugar, and a divergence in those of vegetables and of seafood and oilcrops. Our analysis generated a novel characterization of food supply that highlights the interdependence of multiple food types in national food systems. A better understanding of how these patterns have evolved and will continue to change is needed to support the delivery of healthy and sustainable food system policies

1. The fraction of cancer attributable to lifestyle and environmental factors in the UK in 2010: Introduction

The overall objective of the study is to estimate the percentage of cancers (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) in the UK in 2010 that were the result of exposure to 14 major lifestyle, dietary and environmental risk factors: tobacco, alcohol, four elements of diet (consumption of meat, fruit and vegetables, fibre and salt), overweight, lack of physical exercise, occupation, infections, radiation (ionising and solar), use of hormones and reproductive history (breast feeding). The number of new cases attributable to suboptimal exposure levels in the past, relative to a theoretical optimum exposure distribution, is evaluated. For most of the exposures, the attributable fraction was calculated based on the distribution of exposure prevalence (around 2000), the difference from the theoretical optimum (by age group and sex) and the relative risk per unit difference. For tobacco smoking, the method developed by Peto et al (1992) was used, which relies on the ratio between observed incidence of lung cancer in smokers and that in non-smokers, to calibrate the risk. This article outlines the structure of the supplement – a section for each of the 14 exposures, followed by a Summary chapter, which considers the relative contributions of each factor to the total number of cancers diagnosed in the UK in 2010 that were, in theory, avoidable

Long-term and recent trends in hypertension awareness, treatment and control in twelve high-income countries: an analysis of 123 nationally representative surveys

Background: Antihypertensive medicines are effective in reducing adverse cardiovascular events. Our aim was to compare hypertension awareness, treatment and control, and how they have changed over time, in high-income countries. Methods: We used data on 526,336 participants aged 40-79 years in 123 national health examination surveys from 1976 to 2017 in twelve high-income countries: Australia, Canada, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Spain, the UK, and the USA. We calculated the percent of participants with hypertension – defined as systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mmHg or being on pharmacological treatment for hypertension – who were aware of their condition, who were treated, and whose hypertension was controlled (i.e. lower than 140/90 mmHg). Findings: Canada, South Korea, Australia and the UK have the lowest prevalence of hypertension, and Finland the highest. In the 1980s and early 1990s, treatment rates were at most 40% and control rates were below 25% in most countries and age-sex groups. Over time, hypertension awareness and treatment increased and control rate improved in all twelve countries, with South Korea and Germany experiencing the largest improvements. Most of the increase occurred in the 1990s and early-mid 2000s, having plateaued since in most countries. Canada, Germany, South Korea and the USA have the highest rates of awareness, treatment and control, while Finland, Ireland, Japan and Spain the lowest. Even in the best performing countries, treatment coverage was at most 80% and control rates were below 70%. Interpretation: Hypertension awareness, treatment and control have improved substantially in high-income countries since the 1980s and 1990s. However, control rates have plateaued in the past decade, at levels lower than those in high-quality hypertension programmes. There is substantial variation across countries in the rates of hypertension diagnosis, treatment an

National, regional, and global trends in body-mass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9·1 million participants.

Excess bodyweight is a major public health concern. However, few worldwide comparative analyses of long-term trends of body-mass index (BMI) have been done, and none have used recent national health examination surveys. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean BMI. We estimated trends and their uncertainties of mean BMI for adults 20 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (960 country-years and 9·1 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean BMI by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative. Between 1980 and 2008, mean BMI worldwide increased by 0·4 kg/m(2) per decade (95% uncertainty interval 0·2-0·6, posterior probability of being a true increase &gt;0·999) for men and 0·5 kg/m(2) per decade (0·3-0·7, posterior probability &gt;0·999) for women. National BMI change for women ranged from non-significant decreases in 19 countries to increases of more than 2·0 kg/m(2) per decade (posterior probabilities &gt;0·99) in nine countries in Oceania. Male BMI increased in all but eight countries, by more than 2 kg/m(2) per decade in Nauru and Cook Islands (posterior probabilities &gt;0·999). Male and female BMIs in 2008 were highest in some Oceania countries, reaching 33·9 kg/m(2) (32·8-35·0) for men and 35·0 kg/m(2) (33·6-36·3) for women in Nauru. Female BMI was lowest in Bangladesh (20·5 kg/m(2), 19·8-21·3) and male BMI in Democratic Republic of the Congo 19·9 kg/m(2) (18·2-21·5), with BMI less than 21·5 kg/m(2) for both sexes in a few countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and east, south, and southeast Asia. The USA had the highest BMI of high-income countries. In 2008, an estimated 1·46 billion adults (1·41-1·51 billion) worldwide had BMI of 25 kg/m(2) or greater, of these 205 million men (193-217 million) and 297 million women (280-315 million) were obese. Globally, mean BMI has increased since 1980. The trends since 1980, and mean population BMI in 2008, varied substantially between nations. Interventions and policies that can curb or reverse the increase, and mitigate the health effects of high BMI by targeting its metabolic mediators, are needed in most countries. Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO