Population-Level Benefits from Providing Effective HIV Prevention Means to Pregnant Women in High Prevalence Settings

Background:HIV prevalence among pregnant women in Southern Africa is extremely high. Epidemiological studies suggest that pregnancy increases the risk of HIV sexual acquisition and that HIV infections acquired during pregnancy carry higher risk of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT). We analyze the potential benefits from extending the availability of effective microbicide to pregnant women (in addition to non-pregnant women) in a wide-scale intervention.Methods and Findings:A transmission dynamic model was designed to assess the impact of microbicide use in high HIV prevalence settings and to estimate proportions of new HIV infections, infections acquired during pregnancy, and MTCT prevented over 10 years. Our analysis suggests that consistent use of microbicide with 70% efficacy by 60% of non-pregnant women may prevent approximately 40% and 15% of new infections in women and men respectively over 10 years, assuming no additional increase in HIV risk to either partner during pregnancy (RRHIV/preg = 1). It may also prevent 8-15% MTCT depending on the increase in MTCT risk when HIV is acquired during pregnancy compared to before pregnancy (RRMTCT/preg). Extending the microbicides use during pregnancy may improve the effectiveness of the intervention by 10% (RRHIV/preg = 1) to 25% (RRHIV/preg = 2) and reduce the number of HIV infections acquired during pregnancy by 40% to 70% in different scenarios. It may add between 6% (RRHIV/preg = 1, RRMTCT/preg = 1) and 25% (RRHIV/preg = 2, RRMTCT/preg = 4) to the reduction in the residual MTCT.Conclusion:Providing safe and effective microbicide to pregnant women in the context of wide-scale interventions would be desirable as it would increase the effectiveness of the intervention and significantly reduce the number of HIV infections acquired during pregnancy. The projected benefits from covering pregnant women by the HIV prevention programs is more substantial in communities in which the sexual risk during pregnancy is elevated. © 2013 Dimitrov et al

Estimating benefits of using on-demand oral prep by MSM: A comparative modeling study of the US and Thailand

Background Daily and on-demand pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) are effective at preventing HIV acquisition among men who have sex with men (MSM), but only daily PrEP is approved in the US. On-demand PrEP may improve uptake and adherence. We identify sub-groups of MSM who would benefit from on-demand PrEP and determine effectiveness achieved if individuals used their optimal regimens. Methods Using data from the HPTN 067 study (study period 2012–2014), we created an individual-based stochastic model of HIV risk in two synthetic MSM populations with parameters separately estimated using data from Harlem, US, and Bangkok, Thailand. Agents were assigned daily and on-demand PrEP for six months each. Two personalized PrEP assignments: optimal, based on improved predicted effectiveness and reduced pill burden, and adherence-based, using daily PrEP adherence, were simulated for another six months. Findings Simulated on-demand PrEP was optimal for approximately one-third of MSM. It was assigned mainly to those with low daily PrEP adherence (88% (Harlem), 95% (Bangkok) of MSM with daily PrEP adherence <40%). Mean effectiveness was slightly higher in the full synthetic population with optimal PrEP assignment compared to universal daily PrEP. Among MSM for whom on-demand PrEP was optimal, mean effectiveness improved by 18 (Harlem) and 7 percentage points (Bangkok). Comparable predicted effectiveness was achieved if on-demand PrEP was assigned to the population with daily PrEP adherence <50%. There was no advantage in assigning on-demand PrEP by sex act frequency. Interpretation On-demand PrEP could benefit many MSM by increasing effectiveness or decreasing pill burden with similar effectiveness. On-demand PrEP may be an effective alternative to daily PrEP for individuals with difficulty taking daily PrEP consistently. Results were similar for Harlem and Bangkok, indicating that these conclusions were robust in populations with different overall adherence levels and may inform future public-health policies. Funding US NIH grant UM1 AI068617

Offspring of parents with Balkan Endemic Nephropathy have higher C-reactive protein levels suggestive of inflammatory processes: a longitudinal study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite the characteristic extensive tubulointerstitial fibrosis, Balkan Endemic Nephropathy (BEN) is usually considered a non-inflammatory disease.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We examined a marker of inflammation, C-reactive protein (CRP), in the offspring of patients with BEN, a population at risk for BEN, prior to development of established disease to determine if an inflammatory process could be identified in the early stages of the disease. In 2003/04, 102 adult offspring whose parents had BEN and a control group of 99 adult offspring of non-BEN patients were enrolled in this prospective study. This cohort was re-examined yearly for four consecutive years. Levels of serum CRP were measured in years 3 and 4 and compared between groups. The data were analyzed with mixed models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Compared to controls, offspring of BEN parents had statistically higher CRP levels in two consecutive years, suggestive of early inflammatory reactivity. Whenever the mother was affected by BEN (both parents, or mother only), serum CRP was significantly increased, but not if only the father had BEN. CRP was inversely related to kidney cortex width but not to markers or renal function.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Early stages of BEN may involve inflammatory processes. The observation of a maternal involvement supports the concept of fetal programming, which has been implicated in the pathogenesis of other chronic kidney diseases.</p

Population-level impact of expanding PrEP coverage by offering long-acting injectable PrEP to MSM in three high-resource settings: a model comparison analysis

INTRODUCTION: Long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) demonstrated superiority to daily tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the HPTN 083/084 trials. We compared the potential impact of expanding PrEP coverage by offering CAB-LA to men who have sex with men (MSM) in Atlanta (US), Montreal (Canada) and the Netherlands, settings with different HIV epidemics. METHODS: Three risk-stratified HIV transmission models were independently parameterized and calibrated to local data. In Atlanta, Montreal and the Netherlands, the models, respectively, estimated mean TDF/FTC coverage starting at 29%, 7% and 4% in 2022, and projected HIV incidence per 100 person-years (PY), respectively, decreasing from 2.06 to 1.62, 0.08 to 0.03 and 0.07 to 0.001 by 2042. Expansion of PrEP coverage was simulated by recruiting new CAB-LA users and by switching different proportions of TDF/FTC users to CAB-LA. Population effectiveness and efficiency of PrEP expansions were evaluated over 20 years in comparison to baseline scenarios with TDF/FTC only. RESULTS: Increasing PrEP coverage by 11 percentage points (pp) from 29% to 40% by 2032 was expected to avert a median 36% of new HIV acquisitions in Atlanta. Substantially larger increases (by 33 or 26 pp) in PrEP coverage (to 40% or 30%) were needed to achieve comparable reductions in Montreal and the Netherlands, respectively. A median 17 additional PYs on PrEP were needed to prevent one acquisition in Atlanta with 40% PrEP coverage, compared to 1000+ in Montreal and 4000+ in the Netherlands. Reaching 50% PrEP coverage by 2032 by recruiting CAB-LA users among PrEP-eligible MSM could avert >45% of new HIV acquisitions in all settings. Achieving targeted coverage 5 years earlier increased the impact by 5-10 pp. In the Atlanta model, PrEP expansions achieving 40% and 50% coverage reduced differences in PrEP access between PrEP-indicated White and Black MSM from 23 to 9 pp and 4 pp, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Achieving high PrEP coverage by offering CAB-LA can impact the HIV epidemic substantially if rolled out without delays. These PrEP expansions may be efficient in settings with high HIV incidence (like Atlanta) but not in settings with low HIV incidence (like Montreal and the Netherlands)

How Much Do We Know about Drug Resistance Due to PrEP Use? Analysis of Experts' Opinion and Its Influence on the Projected Public Health Impact

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials reported that pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir and emtricitabine rarely selects for drug resistance. However, drug resistance due to PrEP is not completely understood. In daily practice, PrEP will not be used under the well-controlled conditions available in the trials, suggesting that widespread use of PrEP can result in increased drug resistance. METHODS: We surveyed expert virologists with questions about biological assumptions regarding drug resistance due to PrEP use. The influence of these assumptions on the prevalence of drug resistance and the fraction of HIV transmitted resistance was studied with a mathematical model. For comparability, 50% PrEP-coverage of and 90% per-act efficacy of PrEP in preventing HIV acquisition are assumed in all simulations. RESULTS: Virologists disagreed on the following: the time until resistance emergence (range: 20–180 days) in infected PrEP users with breakthrough HIV infections; the efficacy of PrEP against drug-resistant HIV (25%-90%); and the likelihood of resistance acquisition upon transmission (10%-75%). These differences translate into projections of 0.6%- 1% and 3.5%—6% infected individuals with detectable resistance 10 years after introducing PrEP, assuming 100% and 50% adherence, respectively. The rate of resistance emergence following breakthrough HIV infection and the rate of resistance reversion after PrEP use is discontinued, were the factors identified as most influential on the expected resistance associated with PrEP. Importantly, 17–23% infected individuals could virologically fail treatment as a result of past PrEP use or transmitted resistance to PrEP with moderate adherence. CONCLUSIONS: There is no broad consensus on quantification of key biological processes that underpin the emergence of PrEP-associated drug resistance. Despite this, the contribution of PrEP use to the prevalence of the detectable drug resistance is expected to be small. However, individuals who become infected despite the use of PrEP should be closely monitored due to higher risk of virological failure when initiating antiretroviral treatment in the future

Multiple List Learning in Adults with Autism Spectrum Disorder: Parallels with Frontal Lobe Damage or Further Evidence of Diminished Relational Processing?

To test the effects of providing relational cues at encoding and/or retrieval on multi-trial, multi-list free recall in adults with high-functioning autism spectrum disorder (ASD), 16 adults with ASD and 16 matched typical adults learned a first followed by a second categorised list of 24 words. Category labels were provided at encoding, retrieval, both or not at all. Both groups showed enhanced recall when labels were available during encoding or throughout the task. ASD individuals showed reduced recall of the second list and reduced clustering. Clustering and recall were correlated in both groups, which also showed similar levels of subjective organisation. The findings are discussed in relation to theories of frontal and medial temporal lobe contributions to memory in ASD

An efficient algorithm for the stochastic simulation of the hybridization of DNA to microarrays

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although oligonucleotide microarray technology is ubiquitous in genomic research, reproducibility and standardization of expression measurements still concern many researchers. Cross-hybridization between microarray probes and non-target ssDNA has been implicated as a primary factor in sensitivity and selectivity loss. Since hybridization is a chemical process, it may be modeled at a population-level using a combination of material balance equations and thermodynamics. However, the hybridization reaction network may be exceptionally large for commercial arrays, which often possess at least one reporter per transcript. Quantification of the kinetics and equilibrium of exceptionally large chemical systems of this type is numerically infeasible with customary approaches.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In this paper, we present a robust and computationally efficient algorithm for the simulation of hybridization processes underlying microarray assays. Our method may be utilized to identify the extent to which nucleic acid targets (e.g. cDNA) will cross-hybridize with probes, and by extension, characterize probe robustnessusing the information specified by MAGE-TAB. Using this algorithm, we characterize cross-hybridization in a modified commercial microarray assay.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>By integrating stochastic simulation with thermodynamic prediction tools for DNA hybridization, one may robustly and rapidly characterize of the selectivity of a proposed microarray design at the probe and "system" levels. Our code is available at <url>http://www.laurenzi.net</url>.</p

Analysis of Rabies in China: Transmission Dynamics and Control

Human rabies is one of the major public-health problems in China. The number of human rabies cases has increased dramatically in the last 15 years, partially due to the poor understanding of the transmission dynamics of rabies and the lack of effective control measures of the disease. In this article, in order to explore effective control and prevention measures we propose a deterministic model to study the transmission dynamics of rabies in China. The model consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The model simulations agree with the human rabies data reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health. We estimate that the basic reproduction number for the rabies transmission in China and predict that the number of the human rabies is decreasing but may reach another peak around 2030. We also perform some sensitivity analysis of in terms of the model parameters and compare the effects of culling and immunization of dogs. Our study demonstrates that (i) reducing dog birth rate and increasing dog immunization coverage rate are the most effective methods for controlling rabies in China; and (ii) large scale culling of susceptible dogs can be replaced by immunization of them

Metals and kidney markers in adult offspring of endemic nephropathy patients and controls: a two-year follow-up study

Abstract Background The etiology of Balkan Endemic Nephropathy, (BEN), a tubulointerstitial kidney disease, is unknown. Although this disease is endemic in rural areas of Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, and Serbia, similar manifestations are reported to occur in other regions, for instance Tunisia and Sri Lanka. A number of explanations have been stated including lignites, aristolochic acid, ochratoxin A, metals, and metalloids. Etiologic claims are often based on one or a few studies without sound scientific evidence. In this systematic study, we tested whether exposures to metals (cadmium and lead) and metalloids (arsenic and selenium) are related to Balkan Endemic Nephropathy. Methods In 2003/04 we recruited 102 adults whose parents had BEN and who resided in one of three communities (Vratza, Bistretz, or Beli Izvor, Bulgaria). A control group comprised of 99 adults having non-BEN hospitalized parents was enrolled in the study during the same time. We conducted face-to-face interviews, ultrasound kidney measurements, and determined kidney function in two consecutive investigations (2003/04 and 2004/05). Metals and metalloids were measured in urine and blood samples. To assess the agreement between these consecutive measurements, we calculated intraclass correlation coefficients. Repeated measurement data were analyzed using mixed models. Results We found that cadmium and arsenic were associated with neither kidney size nor function. Lead had a significant but negligible effect on creatinine clearance. Selenium showed a weak but significant negative association with two of the four kidney parameters, namely creatinine clearance and β2-microglobulin. It was positively related to kidney length. These associations were not restricted to the offspring of BEN patients. Adding credence to these findings are reports showing comparable kidney effects in animals exposed to selenium. Conclusion The findings of this 2-year follow-up study indicate that metals and metalloids do not play a role in the etiology of Balkan Endemic Nephropathy. Against the assumption in the literature, selenium was not protective but a risk factor. Since comparable associations were observed in animals, future studies are needed to explore whether selenium may have adverse renal effects in humans.</p