NeuralHydrology -- Interpreting LSTMs in Hydrology

Despite the huge success of Long Short-Term Memory networks, their applications in environmental sciences are scarce. We argue that one reason is the difficulty to interpret the internals of trained networks. In this study, we look at the application of LSTMs for rainfall-runoff forecasting, one of the central tasks in the field of hydrology, in which the river discharge has to be predicted from meteorological observations. LSTMs are particularly well-suited for this problem since memory cells can represent dynamic reservoirs and storages, which are essential components in state-space modelling approaches of the hydrological system. On basis of two different catchments, one with snow influence and one without, we demonstrate how the trained model can be analyzed and interpreted. In the process, we show that the network internally learns to represent patterns that are consistent with our qualitative understanding of the hydrological system.Comment: Pre-print of published book chapter. See journal reference and DOI for more inf

Environmental Modeling and Exposure Assessment of Sediment-Associated Pyrethroids in an Agricultural Watershed

Synthetic pyrethroid insecticides have generated public concerns due to their increasing use and potential effects on aquatic ecosystems. A modeling system was developed in this study for simulating the transport processes and associated sediment toxicity of pyrethroids at coupled field/watershed scales. The model was tested in the Orestimba Creek watershed, an agriculturally intensive area in California' Central Valley. Model predictions were satisfactory when compared with measured suspended solid concentration (R2 = 0.536), pyrethroid toxic unit (0.576), and cumulative mortality of Hyalella azteca (0.570). The results indicated that sediment toxicity in the study area was strongly related to the concentration of pyrethroids in bed sediment. Bifenthrin was identified as the dominant contributor to the sediment toxicity in recent years, accounting for 50–85% of predicted toxicity units. In addition, more than 90% of the variation on the annual maximum toxic unit of pyrethroids was attributed to precipitation and prior application of bifenthrin in the late irrigation season. As one of the first studies simulating the dynamics and spatial variability of pyrethroids in fields and instreams, the modeling results provided useful information on new policies to be considered with respect to pyrethroid regulation. This study suggested two potential measures to efficiently reduce sediment toxicity by pyrethroids in the study area: [1] limiting bifenthrin use immediately before rainfall season; and [2] implementing conservation practices to retain soil on cropland

Analytical model for the calculation of lateral velocity distributions in potential cross-sections

[EN] The hydraulic modeling of water depth and flow velocities in open channel flows that were fitted by power-law cross-section stand out for their versatility, allowing their use in numerous practical applications, both in natural and artificial channels. The determination of the hydraulic variables of depth and average velocity has been widely studied in potential cross-sections; however, the variation seen in these variables along the cross-section was not found in the literature. Knowledge of this variation allows the development of studies (e.g. to know the approximate damage in different areas of the cross-section, to analyse sediment transport, or other applications in river hydraulics). This paper presents a methodology which allows calculation of the hydraulic variables in any area of a power-law cross-section. The methodology is applied to symmetrical cross-sections, comparing its generated results with the obtained values by different computational hydraulic codes, which are thoroughly accepted by scientific community, such as CES, HEC-RAS and IBER. The obtained predictions of hydraulic parameters (using the explicit formulation described in this research) present very low errors when compared with results of other models, with great computational cost. These errors reach a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.13 and 0.05 in the determination of velocities' lateral distribution and the ratio between velocity and average velocity. These values indicate a very successful validation for the analysed symmetrical sections.[ES] La modelización hidráulica de calados y velocidades de flujo, en cauces con secciones que admiten una representación de tipo potencial, se destaca por su versatilidad, permitiendo su utilización en numerosas aplicaciones prácticas tanto en canales naturales como artificiales. El cálculo de las variables hidráulicas (calado y velocidad media) ha sido ampliamente estudiado para este tipo de secciones. Sin embargo, en la literatura técnica no se han encontrado estudios que muestren la variación de estas magnitudes a lo largo de la sección transversal. El conocimiento de esta variación permite desarrollar estudios (ejemplo: conocer de manera aproximada los daños en diferentes zonas de la sección, analizar el transporte de sedimentos, estudiar los procesos de erosión u otras aplicaciones en hidráulica fluvial). Presentamos una metodología que permite el cálculo de las variables hidráulicas en cualquier zona de una sección tipo potencial. La metodología es aplicada a secciones simétricas, comparando los resultados generados con los obtenidos por diferentes códigos hidráulicos computacionales ampliamente aceptados por la comunidad científica (p-e- CES, HECRAS e IBER). Las predicciones de los parámetros hidráulicos obtenidas (usando la formulación explícita descrita en este artículo) presentan errores muy bajos, en comparación con otros modelos con mayor costo computacional. Estos errores alcanzan un valor promedio para la raíz del error cuadrático medio (RMSE) en el cálculo de la distribución lateral de velocidades de 0.13 y de 0.05, en el cálculo de la relación de velocidades respecto a la velocidad media. Estos valores indican una validación muy satisfactoria para las secciones simétricas analizadas.Sánchez-Romero, F.; Pérez-Sánchez, M.; López Jiménez, PA. (2018). Modelo analítico para el cálculo de distribuciones de velocidad laterales en secciones tipo potencial-ley. RIBAGUA - Revista Iberoamericana del Agua. 5(1):29-47. doi:10.1080/23863781.2018.1442189S29475

How land use/land cover changes can affect water, flooding and sedimentation in a tropical watershed: a case study using distributed modeling in the Upper Citarum watershed, Indonesia

[EN] Human activity has produced severe LULC changes within the Upper Citarum watershed and these changes are predicted to continue in the future. With an increase in population parallel to a 141% increment in urban areas, a reduction of rice fields and the replacement of forests with cultivations have been found in the past. Accordingly, LCM model was used to forecast the LULC in 2029. A distributed model called TETIS was implemented in the Upper Citarum watershed to assess the impact of the different historical and future LULC scenarios on its water and sediment cycles. This model was calibrated and validated with different LULCs. For the implementation of the sediment sub-model, it was crucial to use the bathymetric information of the reservoir located at the catchment's outlet. Deforestation and urbanization have been shown to be the most influential factors affecting the alteration of the hydrological and sedimentological processes in the Upper Citarum watershed. The change of LULC decreases evapotranspiration and as a direct consequence, the water yield increased by 15% and 40% during the periods 1994-2014 and 2014-2029, respectively. These increments are caused by the rise of three components in the runoff: overland flow, interflow and base flow. Apart from that, these changes in LULC increased the area of non-tolerable erosion from 412 km(2) in 1994 to 499 km(2) in 2029. The mean sediment yield increased from 3.1 Mton -yr(-1) in the 1994 LULC scenario to 6.7 Mton-yr(-1) in the 2029 LULC scenario. An increment of this magnitude will be catastrophic for the operation of the Saguling Dam.This study was partially funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the research projects TETISMED (CGL2014-58,127-C3-3-R) and TETISCHANGE (RTI2018-093717-B-I00). The authors are also thankful to the Directorate General of Higher Education of Indonesia (DIKTI) for the Ph.D. funding of the first author.Siswanto, SY.; Francés, F. (2019). How land use/land cover changes can affect water, flooding and sedimentation in a tropical watershed: a case study using distributed modeling in the Upper Citarum watershed, Indonesia. Environmental Earth Sciences. 78(17):1-15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8561-0S115781

Amplification of wildfire area burnt by hydrological drought in the humid tropics

Borneo’s diverse ecosystems, which are typical humid tropical conditions, are deteriorating rapidly, as the area is experiencing recurrent large-scale wildfires, affecting atmospheric composition1, 2, 3, 4 and influencing regional climate processes5, 6. Studies suggest that climate-driven drought regulates wildfires2, 7, 8, 9, but these overlook subsurface processes leading to hydrological drought, an important driver. Here, we show that models which include hydrological processes better predict area burnt than those solely based on climate data. We report that the Borneo landscape10 has experienced a substantial hydrological drying trend since the early twentieth century, leading to progressive tree mortality, more severe than in other tropical regions11. This has caused massive wildfires in lowland Borneo during the past two decades, which we show are clustered in years with large areas of hydrological drought coinciding with strong El Niño events. Statistical modelling evidence shows amplifying wildfires and greater area burnt in response to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strength, when hydrology is considered. These results highlight the importance of considering hydrological drought for wildfire prediction, and we recommend that hydrology should be considered in future studies of the impact of projected ENSO strength, including effects on tropical ecosystems, and biodiversity conservation