Evaluation of the Coverage of 3 Antibiotic Regimens for Neonatal Sepsis in the Hospital Setting Across Asian Countries.

Importance: High levels of antimicrobial resistance in neonatal bloodstream isolates are being reported globally, including in Asia. Local hospital antibiogram data may include too few isolates to meaningfully examine the expected coverage of antibiotic regimens. Objective: To assess the coverage offered by 3 antibiotic regimens for empirical treatment of neonatal sepsis in Asian countries. Design, Setting, and Participants: A decision analytical model was used to estimate coverage of 3 prespecified antibiotic regimens according to a weighted-incidence syndromic combination antibiogram. Relevant data to parameterize the models were identified from a systematic search of Ovid MEDLINE and Embase. Data from Asian countries published from 2014 onward were of interest. Only data on blood culture isolates from neonates with sepsis, bloodstream infection, or bacteremia reported from the relevant setting were included. Data analysis was performed from April 2019 to July 2019. Exposures: The prespecified regimens of interest were aminopenicillin-gentamicin, third-generation cephalosporins (cefotaxime or ceftriaxone), and meropenem. The relative incidence of different bacteria and their antimicrobial susceptibility to antibiotics relevant for determining expected concordance with these regimens were extracted. Main Outcomes and Measures: Coverage was calculated on the basis of a decision-tree model incorporating relative bacterial incidence and antimicrobial susceptibility of relevant isolates. Data on 7 bacteria most commonly reported in the included studies were used for estimating coverage, which was reported at the country level. Results: Data from 48 studies reporting on 10 countries and 8376 isolates were used. Individual countries reported 51 (Vietnam) to 6284 (India) isolates. Coverage varied considerably between countries. Meropenem was generally estimated to provide the highest coverage, ranging from 64.0% (95% credible interval [CrI], 62.6%-65.4%) in India to 90.6% (95% CrI, 86.2%-94.4%) in Cambodia, followed by aminopenicillin-gentamicin (from 35.9% [95% CrI, 27.7%-44.0%] in Indonesia to 81.0% [95% CrI, 71.1%-89.7%] in Laos) and cefotaxime or ceftriaxone (from 17.9% [95% CrI, 11.7%-24.7%] in Indonesia to 75.0% [95% CrI, 64.8%-84.1%] in Laos). Aminopenicillin-gentamicin coverage was lower than that of meropenem in all countries except Laos (81.0%; 95% CrI, 71.1%-89.7%) and Nepal (74.3%; 95% CrI, 70.3%-78.2%), where 95% CrIs for aminopenicillin-gentamicin and meropenem were overlapping. Third-generation cephalosporin coverage was lowest of the 3 regimens in all countries. The coverage difference between aminopenicillin-gentamicin and meropenem for countries with nonoverlapping 95% CrIs ranged from -15.9% in China to -52.9% in Indonesia. Conclusions and Relevance: This study's findings suggest that noncarbapenem antibiotic regimens may provide limited coverage for empirical treatment of neonatal sepsis in many Asian countries. Alternative regimens must be studied to limit carbapenem consumption

Impact of Caesarean section on subsequent fertility: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

STUDY QUESTION: Is there an association between a Caesarean section and subsequent fertility? SUMMARY ANSWER: Most studies report that fertility is reduced after Caesarean section compared with vaginal delivery. However, studies with a more robust design show smaller effects and it is uncertain whether the association is causal. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: A previous systematic review published in 1996 summarizing six studies including 85 728 women suggested that Caesarean section reduces subsequent fertility. The included studies suffer from severe methodological limitations. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies comparing subsequent reproductive outcomes of women who had a Caesarean section with those who delivered vaginally. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Searches of Cochrane Library, Medline, Embase, CINAHL Plus and Maternity and Infant Care databases were conducted in December 2011 to identify randomized and non-randomized studies that compared the subsequent fertility outcomes after a Caesarean section and after a vaginal delivery. Eighteen cohort studies including 591 850 women matched the inclusion criteria. Risk of bias was assessed by the Newcastle-Ottawa scale (NOS). Data extraction was done independently by two reviewers. The meta-analysis was based on a random-effects model. Subgroup analyses were performed to assess whether the estimated effect was influenced by parity, risk adjustment, maternal choice, cohort period, and study quality and size. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: The impact of Caesarean section on subsequent pregnancies could be analysed in 10 studies and on subsequent births in 16 studies. A meta-analysis suggests that patients who had undergone a Caesarean section had a 9% lower subsequent pregnancy rate [risk ratio (RR) 0.91, 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.87, 0.95)] and 11% lower birth rate [RR 0.89, 95% CI (0.87, 0.92)], compared with patients who had delivered vaginally. Studies that controlled for maternal age or specifically analysed primary elective Caesarean section for breech delivery, and those that were least prone to bias according to the NOS reported smaller effects. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: There is significant variation in the design and methods of included studies. Residual bias in the adjusted results is likely as no study was able to control for a number of important maternal characteristics, such as a history of infertility or maternal obesity. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Further research is needed to reduce the impact of selection bias by indication through creating more comparable patient groups and applying risk adjustment

Using risk adjustment to improve the interpretation of global inpatient pediatric antibiotic prescribing.

Objectives Assessment of regional pediatric last-resort antibiotic utilization patterns is hampered by potential confounding from population differences. We developed a risk-adjustment model from readily available, internationally used survey data and a simple patient classification to aid such comparisons. Design We investigated the association between pediatric conserve antibiotic (pCA) exposure and patient / treatment characteristics derived from global point prevalence surveys of antibiotic prescribing, and developed a risk-adjustment model using multivariable logistic regression. The performance of a simple patient classification of groups with different expected pCA exposure levels was compared to the risk model. Setting 226 centers in 41 countries across 5 continents. Participants Neonatal and pediatric inpatient antibiotic prescriptions for sepsis/bloodstream infection for 1281 patients. Results Overall pCA exposure was high (35%), strongly associated with each variable (patient age, ward, underlying disease, community acquisition or nosocomial infection and empiric or targeted treatment), and all were included in the final risk-adjustment model. The model demonstrated good discrimination (c-statistic = 0.83) and calibration (p = 0.38). The simple classification model demonstrated similar discrimination and calibration to the risk model. The crude regional pCA exposure rates ranged from 10.3% (Africa) to 67.4% (Latin America). Risk adjustment substantially reduced the regional variation, the adjusted rates ranging from 17.1% (Africa) to 42.8% (Latin America). Conclusions Greater comparability of pCA exposure rates can be achieved by using a few easily collected variables to produce risk-adjusted rates

Long-term disease interactions amongst surgical patients: a population cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The average age of the surgical population continues to increase, as does prevalence of long-term diseases. However, outcomes amongst multi-morbid surgical patients are not well described. METHODS: We included adults undergoing non-obstetric surgical procedures in the English National Health Service between January 2010 and December 2015. Patients could be included multiple times in sequential 90-day procedure spells. Multi-morbidity was defined as presence of two or more long-term diseases identified using a modified Charlson comorbidity index. The primary outcome was 90-day postoperative death. Secondary outcomes included emergency hospital readmission within 90 days. We calculated age- and sex-adjusted odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) using logistic regression. We compared the outcomes associated with different disease combinations. RESULTS: We identified 20 193 659 procedure spells among 13 062 715 individuals aged 57 (standard deviation 19) yr. Multi-morbidity was present among 2 577 049 (12.8%) spells with 195 965 deaths (7.6%), compared with 17 616 610 (88.2%) spells without multi-morbidity with 163 529 deaths (0.9%). Multi-morbidity was present in 1 902 859/16 946 808 (11.2%) elective spells, with 57 663 deaths (2.7%, OR 4.9 [95% CI: 4.9-4.9]), and 674 190/3 246 851 (20.7%) non-elective spells, with 138 302 deaths (20.5%, OR 3.0 [95% CI: 3.0-3.1]). Emergency readmission followed 547 399 (22.0%) spells with multi-morbidity compared with 1 255 526 (7.2%) without. Multi-morbid patients accounted for 57 663/114 783 (50.2%) deaths after elective spells, and 138 302/244 711 (56.5%) after non-elective spells. The rate of death varied five-fold from lowest to highest risk disease pairs. CONCLUSION: One in eight patients undergoing surgery have multi-morbidity, accounting for more than half of all postoperative deaths. Disease interactions amongst multi-morbid patients is an important determinant of patient outcome

A population-based cohort study of the effect of Caesarean section on subsequent fertility

STUDY QUESTION Is there an association between Caesarean section and subsequent fertility? SUMMARY ANSWER There is no or only a slight effect of Caesarean section on future fertility. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Previous studies have reported that delivery by a Caesarean section is associated with fewer subsequent pregnancies and longer inter-pregnancy intervals. The interpretation of these findings is difficult because of significant weaknesses in study designs and analytical methods, notably the potential effect of the indication for Caesarean section on subsequent delivery. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION Retrospective cohort study of 1 047 644 first births to low-risk women using routinely collected, national administrative data of deliveries in English maternity units between 1 April 2000 and 31 March 2012. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS Primiparous women aged 15–40 years who had a singleton, term, live birth in the English National Health Service were included. Women with high-risk pregnancies involving placenta praevia, pre-eclampsia, eclampsia (gestational or pre-existing), hypertension or diabetes were excluded from the main analysis. Kaplan–Meier analyses and Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the effect of mode of delivery on time to subsequent birth, adjusted for age, ethnicity, socio-economic deprivation and year of index delivery. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE Among low-risk primiparous women, 224 024 (21.4%) were delivered by Caesarean section. The Kaplan–Meier estimate of the subsequent birth rate at 10 years for the cohort was 74.7%. Compared with vaginal delivery, subsequent birth rates were marginally lower after elective Caesarean for breech (adjusted hazard ratio, HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.94–0.98). Larger effects were observed after elective Caesarean for other indications (adjusted HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.78–0.83), and emergency Caesarean (adjusted HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.90–0.93). The effect was smallest for elective Caesarean for breech, and this was not statistically significant in women younger than 30 years of age (adjusted HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.96–1.01). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION We used birth cohorts from maternity units with good quality parity information. The data are likely to be nationally representative because the characteristics of the deliveries in included and omitted units were similar. There may be residual bias in our adjusted results due to unmeasured maternal factors such as obesity and voluntary absence of conception. Any residual bias would lead to an overestimate of the effect of Caesarean section on fertility, and the true effect is therefore likely to be smaller than the effect reported in our study. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS Our results provide strong evidence that there is no or only a slight effect of Caesarean section on future fertility. The clinical and social circumstances leading to the Caesarean section have a greater effect on future fertility than the Caesarean section itself. This finding is important in light of rising Caesarean section rates. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) IG-U is supported by the Lindsay Stewart R&D Centre, Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists, UK. The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER n/a

Predicting 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery: Evaluation of the National Hip Fracture Database case-mix adjustment model.

OBJECTIVES: The National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD) publishes hospital-level risk-adjusted mortality rates following hip fracture surgery in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The performance of the risk model used by the NHFD was compared with the widely-used Nottingham Hip Fracture Score. METHODS: Data from 94 hospitals on patients aged 60 to 110 who had hip fracture surgery between May 2013 and July 2013 were analysed. Data were linked to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) death register to calculate the 30-day mortality rate. Risk of death was predicted for each patient using the NHFD and Nottingham models in a development dataset using logistic regression to define the models' coefficients. This was followed by testing the performance of these refined models in a second validation dataset. RESULTS: The 30-day mortality rate was 5.36% in the validation dataset (n = 3861), slightly lower than the 6.40% in the development dataset (n = 4044). The NHFD and Nottingham models showed a slightly lower discrimination in the validation dataset compared with the development dataset, but both still displayed moderate discriminative power (c-statistic for NHFD = 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.74; Nottingham model = 0.70, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.75). Both models defined similar ranges of predicted mortality risk (1% to 18%) in assessment of calibration. CONCLUSIONS: Both models have limitations in predicting mortality for individual patients after hip fracture surgery, but the NHFD risk adjustment model performed as well as the widely-used Nottingham prognostic tool and is therefore a reasonable alternative for risk adjustment in the United Kingdom hip fracture population.Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2017;6:550-556

Editor's Choice - Delays to Surgery and Procedural Risks Following Carotid Endarterectomy in the UK National Vascular Registry.

OBJECTIVE: Guidelines recommend that patients suffering an ischaemic transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or stroke caused by carotid artery stenosis should undergo carotid endarterectomy (CEA) within 14 days. METHOD: The degree to which UK vascular units met this standard was examined and whether rapid interventions were associated with procedural risks. The study analysed patients undergoing CEA between January 2009 and December 2014 from 100 UK NHS hospitals. Data were collected on patient characteristics, intervals of time from symptoms to surgery, and 30-day postoperative outcomes. The relationship between outcomes and time from symptom to surgery was evaluated using multilevel multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: In 23,235 patients, the median time from TIA/stroke to CEA decreased over time, from 22 days (IQR 10-56) in 2009 to 12 days (IQR 7-26) in 2014. The proportion of patients treated within 14 days increased from 37% to 58%. This improvement was produced by shorter times across the care pathway: symptoms to referral, from medical review to being seen by a vascular surgeon, and then to surgery. The spread of the median time from symptom to surgery among NHS hospitals shrank between 2009 and 2013 but then grew slightly. Low-, medium-, and high-volume NHS hospitals all improved their performance similarly. Performing CEA within 48 h of symptom onset was associated with a small increase in the 30-day stroke and death rate: 3.1% (0-2 days) compared with 2.0% (3-7 days); adjusted odds ratio 1.64 (95% CI 1.04-2.59) but not with longer delays. CONCLUSIONS: The delay from symptom to CEA in symptomatic patients with ipsilateral 50-99% carotid stenoses has reduced substantially, although 42% of patients underwent CEA after the recommended 14 days. The risk of stroke after CEA was low, but there may be a small increase in risk during the first 48 h after symptoms

Surgical Determinants of Patient-Reported Outcomes following Postmastectomy Reconstruction in Women with Breast Cancer.

This national prospective cohort study compared the patient-reported outcomes of breast cancer patients undergoing postmastectomy autologous reconstruction to those who had breast implants, in terms of aesthetic appearance; levels of psychological, physical, and sexual well-being; and overall satisfaction. Of 5063 women who underwent immediate reconstruction (n = 3349) or delayed reconstruction (n = 1714) between January 1, 2008, and March 31, 2009, in England, 2923 women who gave informed consent were sent validated, procedure-specific, 18-month follow-up questionnaires. Outcome scale scores ranged from 0 (poor) to 100 (excellent); multiple linear regression was used to adjust scores for patient and treatment characteristics. Two thousand two hundred eighty-nine women (78 percent) returned completed questionnaires (immediate reconstruction, n = 1528; delayed reconstruction, n = 761). For immediate reconstruction, mean overall satisfaction scores for the various techniques ranged from 67 to 85 (median, 67 to 93). For delayed reconstruction, mean overall satisfaction scores ranged from 70 to 85 (median, 75 to 100). For both groups, similar gradients were observed for the other outcome scales across techniques. Reconstruction using patients' own tissues tended to have higher mean adjusted scores compared with those techniques using implants alone (p < 0.0001 for aesthetic appearance, psychological well-being, sexual well-being, and satisfaction with outcomes for immediate and delayed reconstruction groups). Women who underwent autologous reconstruction tended to report greater satisfaction than those who underwent implant reconstruction. These results can inform patients of the anticipated outcomes of their selected surgery, but further research is required to confirm whether autologous reconstruction is superior in general. Therapeutic, II

Assessing national patterns and outcomes of pituitary surgery: is hospital administrative data good enough?

Purpose Patterns of surgical care, outcomes, and quality of care can be assessed using hospital administrative databases but this requires accurate and complete data. The aim of this study was to explore whether the quality of hospital administrative data was sufficient to assess pituitary surgery practice in England. Methods The study analysed Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data from April 2013 to March 2018 on all adult patients undergoing pituitary surgery in England. A series of data quality indicators examined the attribution of cases to consultants, the coding of sellar and parasellar lesions, associated endocrine and visual disorders, and surgical procedures. Differences in data quality over time and between neurosurgical units were examined. Results A total of 5613 records describing pituitary procedures were identified. Overall, 97.3% had a diagnostic code for the tumour or lesion treated, with 29.7% (n = 1669) and 17.8% (n = 1000) describing endocrine and visual disorders, respectively. There was a significant reduction from the first to the fifth year in records that only contained a pituitary tumour code (63.7%–47.0%, p < .001). The use of procedure codes that attracted the highest tariff increased over time (66.4%–82.4%, p < .001). Patterns of coding varied widely between the 24 neurosurgical units. Conclusion The quality of HES data on pituitary surgery has improved over time but there is wide variation in the quality of data between neurosurgical units. Research studies and quality improvement programmes using these data need to check it is of sufficient quality to not invalidate their results

National trends in immediate and delayed post-mastectomy reconstruction procedures in England: A seven-year population-based cohort study.

Little is known about post-mastectomy reconstruction procedural trends in women diagnosed with breast cancer in England. Our aim was to examine patterns of immediate and delayed reconstruction procedures over time and within regions. Women with breast cancer who underwent unilateral index immediate or delayed post-mastectomy reconstruction between 2007 and 2014 were identified using the National Hospital Episode Statistics database. Women were grouped into categories based on the type of reconstruction procedure. Adjusted rates of implant and free flap reconstructions were then calculated across regional Cancer Networks using a regression model to adjust for age, disease, comorbidities, ethnicity, and deprivation. Between 2007 and 2014, 21 862 women underwent immediate reconstruction and 8653 delayed reconstruction. Immediate implant reconstruction increased from 30% to 54%, and immediate free flap reconstruction from 17% to 21%. Adjusted immediate implant and free flap proportions ranged from 17 to 68% and 9-63%, respectively, across regions. Free flaps became more common in the delayed setting, rising from 25% to 42%. However, adjusted rates ranged from 23% to 74% across regions. Networks with high/low rates of free flaps for immediate tended to have high/low rates for delayed reconstruction. There has been a substantial increase in the use of immediate implant reconstruction in England. In comparison, there has been an increasing use of autologous free flap reconstruction for delayed procedures. Significant regional variation exists in the type of reconstruction performed, and these patterns need to be examined to determine if variation is related to service provision and/or capacity barriers