Uncertainty quantification in steady state simulations of a molten salt system using polynomial chaos expansion analysis

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) of numerical simulations is highly relevant in the study and design of complex systems. Among the various approaches available, Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) analysis has recently attracted great interest. It belongs to nonintrusive spectral projection methods and consists of constructing system responses as polynomial functions of the stochastic inputs. The limited number of required model evaluations and the possibility to apply it to codes without any modification make this technique extremely attractive. In this work, we propose the use of PCE to perform UQ of complex, multi-physics models for liquid fueled reactors, addressing key design aspects of neutronics and thermal fluid dynamics. Our PCE approach uses Smolyak sparse grids designed to estimate the PCE coefficients. To test its potential, the PCE method was applied to a 2D problem representative of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor physics. An in-house multi-physics tool constitutes the reference model. The studied responses are the maximum temperature and the effective multiplication factor. Results, validated by comparison with the reference model on 103 Monte-Carlo sampled points, prove the effectiveness of our PCE approach in assessing uncertainties of complex coupled models

Double adjoint method for determining the contribution of composition to reactivity at different times

a b s t r a c t The double adjoint method uses the adjoint reactivity and transmutation problems to describe how the system composition is related to the system reactivity at different points in time. Values of the contribution to the reactivity are determined using the adjoint reactivity problem, and these are then used as the source function for the adjoint transmutation problem. The method is applied to the problem of determining the contribution of the beginning of cycle composition to the end of cycle reactivity. It is tested in both fast and thermal systems by comparing the behaviour of the multiplication factor at the end of cycle in calculations with perturbed initial compositions to that predicted by the double adjoint method. The results from the fast system are good, while those from the thermal system are less favourable. This is believed to be due to the method neglecting the coupling between the composition and the flux, which plays a more significant role in thermal systems than fast ones. The importance of correcting for the effects of the fuel compound is also established. The values found are used in calculations to determine the appropriate fuel reloading of the systems tested, with the aim of duplicating the behaviour of the multiplication factor of the original system. Again the fast system gives good results, while the thermal system is less accurate. The double adjoint method is also used for a definition of breeding ratio, and some of the features of this definition are illustrated by examining the effects of different feed materials and reprocessing schemes. The method is shown to be a useful tool for the comparison of the reactivity behaviour of different fuel compositions, particularly its inclusion of the effects of the feed and fuel compound materials. The breeding ratio definition can be applied to non-equilibrium cycles, a significant advantage over many existing definitions

Week 96 efficacy and safety results of the phase 3, randomized EMERALD trial to evaluate switching from boosted-protease inhibitors plus emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate regimens to the once daily, single-tablet regimen of darunavir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (D/C/F/TAF) in treatment-experienced, virologically-suppressed adults living with HIV-1

Altres ajuts: This study was sponsored by Janssen.Darunavir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (D/C/F/TAF) 800/150/200/10 mg was investigated through 96 weeks in EMERALD (NCT02269917). Virologically-suppressed, HIV-1-positive treatment-experienced adults (previous non-darunavir virologic failure [VF] allowed) were randomized (2:1) to D/C/F/TAF or boosted protease inhibitor (PI) plus emtricitabine/tenofovir-disoproxil-fumarate (F/TDF) over 48 weeks. At week 52 participants in the boosted PI arm were offered switch to D/C/F/TAF (late-switch, 44 weeks D/C/F/TAF exposure). All participants were followed on D/C/F/TAF until week 96. Efficacy endpoints were percentage cumulative protocol-defined virologic rebound (PDVR; confirmed viral load [VL] ≥50 copies/mL) and VL < 50 copies/mL (virologic suppression) and ≥50 copies/mL (VF) (FDA-snapshot analysis). Of 1141 randomized patients, 1080 continued in the extension phase. Few patients had PDVR (D/C/F/TAF: 3.1%, 24/763 cumulative through week 96; late-switch: 2.3%, 8/352 week 52-96). Week 96 virologic suppression was 90.7% (692/763) (D/C/F/TAF) and 93.8% (330/352) (late-switch). VF was 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively. No darunavir, primary PI, tenofovir or emtricitabine resistance-associated mutations were observed post-baseline. No patients discontinued for efficacy-related reasons. Few discontinued due to adverse events (2% D/C/F/TAF arm). Improved renal and bone parameters were maintained in the D/C/F/TAF arm and observed in the late-switch arm, with small increases in total cholesterol/high-density-lipoprotein-cholesterol ratio. A study limitation was the lack of a control arm in the week 96 analysis. Through 96 weeks, D/C/F/TAF resulted in low PDVR rates, high virologic suppression rates, very few VFs, and no resistance development. Late-switch results were consistent with D/C/F/TAF week 48 results. EMERALD week 96 results confirm the efficacy, high genetic barrier to resistance and safety benefits of D/C/F/TAF

Week 48 resistance analyses of the once-daily, single-tablet regimen darunavir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (D/C/F/TAF) in adults living with HIV-1 from the Phase III Randomized AMBER and EMERALD Trials

Darunavir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (D/C/F/TAF) 800/150/200/10 mg is being investigated in two Phase III trials, AMBER (NCT02431247; treatment-naive adults) and EMERALD (NCT02269917; treatment-experienced, virologically suppressed adults). Week 48 AMBER and EMERALD resistance analyses are presented. Postbaseline samples for genotyping/phenotyping were analyzed from protocol-defined virologic failures (PDVFs) with viral load (VL) >= 400 copies/mL at failure/later time points. Post hoc analyses were deep sequencing in AMBER, and HIV-1 proviral DNA from baseline samples (VL = 3 thymidine analog-associated mutations (24% not fully susceptible to tenofovir) detected at screening. All achieved VL <50 copies/mL at week 48 or prior discontinuation. D/C/F/TAF has a high genetic barrier to resistance; no darunavir, primary PI, or tenofovir RAMs were observed through 48 weeks in AMBER and EMERALD. Only one postbaseline M184I/V RAM was observed in HIV-1 of an AMBER participant. In EMERALD, baseline archived RAMs to darunavir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir in participants with prior VF did not preclude virologic response

Strategies for the Use of Fallback Foods in Apes

Researchers have suggested that fallback foods (FBFs) shape primate food processing adaptations, whereas preferred foods drive harvesting adaptations, and that the dietary importance of FBFs is central in determining the expression of a variety of traits. We examine these hypotheses in extant apes. First, we compare the nature and dietary importance of FBFs used by each taxon. FBF importance appears greatest in gorillas, followed by chimpanzees and siamangs, and least in orangutans and gibbons (bonobos are difficult to place). Next, we compare 20 traits among taxa to assess whether the relative expression of traits expected for consumption of FBFs matches their observed dietary importance. Trait manifestation generally conforms to predictions based on dietary importance of FBFs. However, some departures from predictions exist, particularly for orang-utans, which express relatively more food harvesting and processing traits predicted for consuming large amounts of FBFs than expected based on observed dietary importance. This is probably due to the chemical, mechanical, and phenological properties of the apes’ main FBFs, in particular high importance of figs for chimpanzees and hylobatids, compared to use of bark and leaves—plus figs in at least some Sumatran populations—by orang-utans. This may have permitted more specialized harvesting adaptations in chimpanzees and hylobatids, and required enhanced processing adaptations in orang-utans. Possible intercontinental differences in the availability and quality of preferred and FBFs may also be important. Our analysis supports previous hypotheses suggesting a critical influence of the dietary importance and quality of FBFs on ape ecology and, consequently, evolution

The Potential Energy Surface in Molecular Quantum Mechanics

The idea of a Potential Energy Surface (PES) forms the basis of almost all accounts of the mechanisms of chemical reactions, and much of theoretical molecular spectroscopy. It is assumed that, in principle, the PES can be calculated by means of clamped-nuclei electronic structure calculations based upon the Schr\"{o}dinger Coulomb Hamiltonian. This article is devoted to a discussion of the origin of the idea, its development in the context of the Old Quantum Theory, and its present status in the quantum mechanics of molecules. It is argued that its present status must be regarded as uncertain.Comment: 18 pages, Proceedings of QSCP-XVII, Turku, Finland 201

Week 96 efficacy and safety results of the phase 3, randomized EMERALD trial to evaluate switching from boosted-protease inhibitors plus emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate regimens to the once daily, single-tablet regimen of darunavir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (D/C/F/TAF) in treatment-experienced, virologically-suppressed adults living with HIV-1

Darunavir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (D/C/F/TAF) 800/150/200/10 mg was investigated through 96 weeks in EMERALD (NCT02269917). Virologically-suppressed, HIV-1-positive treatment-experienced adults (previous non-darunavir virologic failure [VF] allowed) were randomized (2:1) to D/C/F/TAF or boosted protease inhibitor (PI) plus emtricitabine/tenofovir-disoproxil-fumarate (F/TDF) over 48 weeks. At week 52 participants in the boosted PI arm were offered switch to D/C/F/TAF (late-switch, 44 weeks D/C/F/TAF exposure). All participants were followed on D/C/F/TAF until week 96. Efficacy endpoints were percentage cumulative protocol-defined virologic rebound (PDVR; confirmed viral load [VL] ≥50 copies/mL) and VL < 50 copies/mL (virologic suppression) and ≥50 copies/mL (VF) (FDA-snapshot analysis). Of 1141 randomized patients, 1080 continued in the extension phase. Few patients had PDVR (D/C/F/TAF: 3.1%, 24/763 cumulative through week 96; late-switch: 2.3%, 8/352 week 52–96). Week 96 virologic suppression was 90.7% (692/763) (D/C/F/TAF) and 93.8% (330/352) (late-switch). VF was 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively. No darunavir, primary PI, tenofovir or emtricitabine resistance-associated mutations were observed post-baseline. No patients discontinued for efficacy-related reasons. Few discontinued due to adverse events (2% D/C/F/TAF arm). Improved renal and bone parameters were maintained in the D/C/F/TAF arm and observed in the late-switch arm, with small increases in total cholesterol/high-density-lipoprotein-cholesterol ratio. A study limitation was the lack of a control arm in the week 96 analysis. Through 96 weeks, D/C/F/TAF resulted in low PDVR rates, high virologic suppression rates, very few VFs, and no resistance development. Late-switch results were consistent with D/C/F/TAF week 48 results. EMERALD week 96 results confirm the efficacy, high genetic barrier to resistance and safety benefits of D/C/F/TAF

Coupling of a micromixing model to computational fluid dynamics: Application to a stirred tank reactor

Kramers Laboratorium voor Fysische TechnologieApplied Science