The microeconomic determinants of emigration and return migration of the best and brightest: evidence from the Pacific

A unique survey which tracks worldwide the best and brightest academic performers from three Pacific countries is used to assess the extent of emigration and return migration among the very highly skilled, and to analyze, at the microeconomic level, the determinants of these migration choices. Although we estimate that the income gains from migration are very large, not everyone migrates and many return. Within this group of highly skilled individuals the emigration decision is found to be most strongly associated with preference variables such as risk aversion, patience, and choice of subjects in secondary school, and not strongly linked to either liquidity constraints or to the gain in income to be had from migrating. Likewise, the decision to return is strongly linked to family and lifestyle reasons, rather than to the income opportunities in different countries. Overall the data show a relatively limited role for income maximization in distinguishing migration propensities among the very highly skilled, and a need to pay more attention to other components of the utility maximization decision

Capital Flows and Speculative Attacks in Prospective EU Member States

This paper examines the capital flow experience of transition economies who are also prospective EU members with a view to shedding light on the likely problems they might encounter with exchange rate policy in the run up to euro area membership. We show that they have been experiencing fairly sizeable capital flows since the early 1990s. We explain these flows using two separate models. The first explains the level of capital flows using panel data from the prospective EU members. The second concentrates specifically on estimating the probability of a country experiencing downward speculative pressure. In both cases, the contribution of domestic factors and contagion is explored. The results suggest that while domestic factors have some role to play, it is rather limited. Moreover there is clear evidence of contagion effects, suggesting that macroeconomic policy in the prospective EU members will be complicated by capital flows in the run up to euro area membership.capital flows, transition economies, accession countries and EU membership

A land of milk and honey with streets paved with gold: do emigrants have over-optimistic expectations about incomes abroad?

Millions of people emigrate every year in search of better economic and social opportunities. Anecdotal evidence suggests that emigrants may have over-optimistic expectations about the incomes they can earn abroad, resulting in excessive migration pressure, and in disappointment amongst those who do migrate. Yet there is almost no statistical evidence on how accurately these emigrants predict the incomes that they will earn working abroad. In this paper we combine a natural emigration experiment with unique survey data on would-be emigrants’ probabilistic expectations about employment and incomes in the migration destination. Our procedure enables us to obtain moments and quantiles of the subjective distribution of expected earnings in the destination country. We find a significant underestimation of both unconditional and conditional labor earnings at all points in the distribution. This under-estimation appears driven in part by potential migrants placing too much weight on the negative employment experiences of some migrants, and by inaccurate information flows from extended family, who may be trying to moderate remittance demands by understating incomes

Maximum aposteriori joint source/channel coding

A maximum aposteriori probability (MAP) approach to joint source/channel coder design is presented in this paper. This method attempts to explore a technique for designing joint source/channel codes, rather than ways of distributing bits between source coders and channel coders. For a nonideal source coder, MAP arguments are used to design a decoder which takes advantage of redundancy in the source coder output to perform error correction. Once the decoder is obtained, it is analyzed with the purpose of obtaining 'desirable properties' of the channel input sequence for improving overall system performance. Finally, an encoder design which incorporates these properties is proposed

Peer-to-peer:is deviant behavior the norm on P2P file-sharing networks?

P2P file-sharing networks such as Kazaa, eDonkey, and Limewire boast millions of users. Because of scalability concerns and legal issues, such networks are moving away from the semicentralized approach that Napster typifies toward more scalable and anonymous decentralized P2P architectures. Because they lack any central authority, these networks provide a new, interesting context for the expression of human social behavior. However, the activities of P2P community members are sometimes at odds with what real-world authorities consider acceptable. One example is the use of P2P networks to distribute illegal pornography. To gauge the form and extent of P2P-based sharing of illegal pornography, we analyzed pornography-related resource-discovery traffic in the Gnutella P2P network. We found that a small yet significant proportion of Gnutella activity relates to illegal pornography: for example, 1.6 percent of searches and 2.4 percent of responses are for this type of material. But does this imply that such activity is widespread in the file-sharing population? On the contrary, our results show that a small yet particularly active subcommunity of users searches for and distributes illegal pornography, but it isn't a behavioral norm

Used infant mattresses and sudden infant death syndrome in Scotland: case-control study

<P>OBJECTIVE: To examine the proposition that a used infant mattress is associated with an increased risk of sudden infant death syndrome. DESIGN: Case-control study. SETTING: Scotland (population 5.1 million, with about 53 000 births a year).</P> <P>PARTICIPANTS: 131 infants who died of sudden infant death syndrome between 1 January 1996 and 31 May 2000 and 278 age, season, and obstetric unit matched control infants.</P> <P>MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Routine use of an infant mattress previously used by another child and place of last sleep.</P> <P>RESULTS: Routine use of an infant mattress previously used by another child was significantly associated with an increased risk of sudden infant death syndrome (multivariate odds ratio 3.07, 95% confidence interval 1.51 to 6.22). Use of a used infant mattress for last sleep was also associated with increased risk (6.10, 2.31 to 16.12). The association was significantly stronger if the mattress was from another home (4.78, 2.08 to 11.0) than if it was from the same home (1.64, 0.64 to 4.2).</P> <P>CONCLUSION: A valid significant association exists between use of a used infant mattress and an increased risk of sudden infant death syndrome, particularly if the mattress is from another home. Insufficient evidence is available to judge whether this relation is cause and effect.</P&gt