Historical Arctic Logbooks Provide Insights into Past Diets and Climatic Responses of Cod

Gadus morhua (Atlantic cod) stocks in the Barents Sea are currently at levels not seen since the 1950s. Causes for the population increase last century, and understanding of whether such large numbers will be maintained in the future, are unclear. To explore this, we digitised and interrogated historical cod catch and diet datasets from the Barents Sea. Seventeen years of catch data and 12 years of prey data spanning 1930–1959 cover unexplored spatial and temporal ranges, and importantly capture the end of a previous warm period, when temperatures were similar to those currently being experienced. This study aimed to evaluate cod catch per unit effort and prey frequency in relation to spatial, temporal and environmental variables. There was substantial spatio-temporal heterogeneity in catches through the time series. The highest catches were generally in the 1930s and 1940s, although at some localities more cod were recorded late in the 1950s. Generalized Additive Models showed that environmental, spatial and temporal variables are all valuable descriptors of cod catches, with the highest occurring from 15–45°E longitude and 73–77°N latitude, at bottom temperatures between 2 and 4°C and at depths between 150 and 250 m. Cod diets were highly variable during the study period, with frequent changes in the relative frequencies of different prey species, particularly Mallotus villosus (capelin). Environmental variables were particularly good at describing the importance of capelin and Clupea harengus (herring) in the diet. These new analyses support existing knowledge about how the ecology of the region is controlled by climatic variability. When viewed in combination with more recent data, these historical relationships will be valuable in forecasting the future of Barents Sea fisheries, and in understanding how environments and ecosystems may respond

Socio-economic Impacts—Fisheries

Fishers and scientists have known for over 100 years that the status of fish stocks can be greatly influenced by prevailing climatic conditions. Based on historical sea surface temperature data, the North Sea has been identified as one of 20 ‘hot spots’ of climate change globally and projections for the next 100 years suggest that the region will continue to warm. The consequences of this rapid temperature rise are already being seen in shifts in species distribution and variability in stock recruitment. This chapter reviews current evidence for climate change effects on fisheries in the North Sea—one of the most important fishing grounds in the world—as well as available projections for North Sea fisheries in the future. Discussion focuses on biological, operational and wider market concerns, as well as on possible economic consequences. It is clear that fish communities and the fisheries that target them will be very different in 50 or 100 years’ time and that management and governance will need to adapt accordingly

Binary-induced collapse of a compact, collisionless cluster

We improve and extend Shapiro's model of a relativistic, compact object which is stable in isolation but is driven dynamically unstable by the tidal field of a binary companion. Our compact object consists of a dense swarm of test particles moving in randomly-oriented, initially circular, relativistic orbits about a nonrotating black hole. The binary companion is a distant, slowly inspiraling point mass. The tidal field of the companion is treated as a small perturbation on the background Schwarzschild geometry near the hole; the resulting metric is determined by solving the perturbation equations of Regge and Wheeler and Zerilli in the quasi-static limit. The perturbed spacetime supports Bekenstein's conjecture that the horizon area of a near-equilibrium black hole is an adiabatic invariant. We follow the evolution of the system and confirm that gravitational collapse can be induced in a compact collisionless cluster by the tidal field of a binary companion.Comment: 9 Latex pages, 14 postscript figure

Study of flavour dependencies in leptogenesis

We study the impact of flavours on the efficiency factors and give analytical and numerical results of the baryon asymmetry taking into account the different charged lepton Yukawa contributions and the complete (diagonal and off-diagonal) $L$ to $B-L$ conversion $A$ matrix. With this treatment we update the lower bound on the lightest right-handed neutrino mass.Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures. typos corrected, some formulae modified. 2 figures and discussion adde

Infrared spectroscopy of phytochrome and model pigments

Fourier-transform infrared difference spectra between the red-absorbing and far-red-absorbing forms of oat phytochrome have been measured in H2O and 2H2O. The difference spectra are compared with infrared spectra of model compounds, i.e. the (5Z,10Z,15Z)- and (5Z,10Z,15E)-isomers of 2,3,7,8,12,13,17,18-octaethyl-bilindion (Et8-bilindion), 2,3-dihydro-2,3,7,8,12,13,17,18-octaethyl-bilindion (H2Et8-bilindion), and protonated H2Et8-bilindion in various solvents. The spectra of the model compounds show that only for the protonated forms can clear differences between the two isomers be detected. Since considerable differences are present between the spectra of Et8-bilindion and H2Et8-bilindion, it is concluded that only the latter compound can serve as a model system of phytochrome. The 2H2O effect on the difference spectrum of phytochrome supports the view that the chromophore in red-absorbing phytochrome is protonated and suggests, in addition, that it is also protonated in far-red-absorbing phytochrome. The spectra show that protonated carboxyl groups are influenced. The small amplitudes in the difference spectra exclude major changes of protein secondary structure

Speed Matters: Relationship between Speed of Eye Movements and Modification of Aversive Autobiographical Memories

Eye movement desensitization and reprocessing (EMDR) is an efficacious treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder. In EMDR, patients recall a distressing memory and simultaneously make eye movements (EM). Both tasks are considered to require limited working memory (WM) resources. Because this leaves fewer resources available for memory retrieval, the memory should become less vivid and less emotional during future recall. In EMDR analogue studies, a standardized procedure has been used, in which participants receive the same dual task manipulation of 1 EM cycle per second (1 Hz). From a WM perspective, the WM taxation of the dual task might be titrated to the WM taxation of the memory image. We hypothesized that highly vivid images are more affected by high WM taxation and less vivid images are more affected by low WM taxation. In study 1, 34 participants performed a reaction time task, and rated image vividness, and difficulty of retrieving an image, during five speeds of EM and no EM. Both a high WM taxing frequency (fast EM; 1.2 Hz) and a low WM taxing frequency (slow EM; 0.8 Hz) were selected. In study 2, 72 participants recalled three highly vivid aversive autobiographical memory images (n = 36) or three less vivid images (n = 36) under each of three conditions: recall + fast EM, recall + slow EM, or recall only. Multi-level modeling revealed a consistent pattern for all outcome measures: recall + fast EM led to less emotional, less vivid and more difficult to retrieve images than recall + slow EM and recall only, and the effects of recall + slow EM felt consistently in between the effects of recall + fast EM and recall only, but only differed significantly from recall + fast EM. Crucially, image vividness did not interact with condition on the decrease of emotionality over time, which was inconsistent with the prediction. Implications for understanding the mechanisms of action in memory modification and directions for future research are discussed

Use of measurement theory for operationalization and quantification of psychological constructs in systems dynamics modelling

The analytical tools available to social scientists have traditionally been adapted from tools originally designed for analysis of natural science phenomena. This article discusses the applicability of systems dynamics - a qualitative based modelling approach, as a possible analysis and simulation tool that bridges the gap between social and natural sciences. After a brief overview of the systems dynamics modelling methodology, the advantages as well as limiting factors of systems dynamics to the potential applications in the field of social sciences and human interactions are discussed. The issues arise with regards to operationalization and quantification of latent constructs at the simulation building stage of the systems dynamics methodology and measurement theory is proposed as a ready and waiting solution to the problem of dynamic model calibration, with a view of improving simulation model reliability and validity and encouraging the development of standardised, modular system dynamics models that can be used in social science research

Evolutionary impact assessment: accounting for evolutionary consequences of fishing in an ecosystem approach to fisheries management

Managing fisheries resources to maintain healthy ecosystems is one of the main goals of the ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). while the number of international treaties call for the implementation of EAF, there are still gaps in the underlying methodology. One aspect that has received substantial scientific attention recently in fisheries-induced evolution (FIE). Increasing evidence indicates that intensive fishing has the potential to exert strong directional selection on life-history traits, behavior, physiology, and morphology of exploited fish. Of particular concern is that reversing evolutionary responses to fishing can be much more difficult than reversing demographic or phenotypically plastic responses. Furthermore, like climate change, multiple agents cause fisheries-induced evolution with effects accumulating over time. Consequently, FIE may alter then utility derived from fish stocks, which in turn can modify the monetary value living aquatic resources provide to society. Quantifying and predicting the evolutionary effects of fishing is therefore important for both ecological and economic reasons, An important reason this is not happening is the lack of an appropriate assessment framework. We therefor describe the evolutionary impact assessment (EvoIA) as a structured approach for assessing the evolutionary outcomes of alternative management options. EvoIA can contribute to the ecosystem approach to fisheries management by clarifying how evolution may alter stock properties and ecological relations, support the precautionary approach to fisheries management by addressing a previously overlooked source of uncertainty and risk, and thus contribute to sustainable fisheries