On the Identification of Time Varying Structures

The identifiability of reduced form econometric models with variable coefficients is investigated using the control theoretic concepts of uniform complete observability and uniform complete controllability. First, a variant of the state space representation of the traditional reduced form is introduced which transcribes the underlying non-stationary estimation problem into one particularly suited to a Kalman filtering solution. Using such a formulation, observability and controllability can be called upon to obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for identification of the specific parameterization. The results so obtained are completely analogous to those already established in the econometric literature, namely, that the parameters of the reduced form are always identified subject to the absence of multicollinearity(referred to as "persistent excitation" in the control literature). How-ever, now the multicollinearity condition is seen to depend on the structure of the parameter variations as well as the statistical nature of the explanatory variables. The verification of identifiability thus reduces to a check for uniform complete observability which can always be affected in econometric applications. Some consistency results are also presented which derive from the above approach.

Growth and public infrastructure

The paper analyzes a multicountry extension of the Barro model of productive public expenditure. In the presence of positive infrastructural externalities between countries, the provision of infrastructure will be inefficiently low if countries do not coordinate. This provides a role for a supranational body, such as the European Union, to coordinate the policies of the individual governments. It is shown how intervention by a supranational body can raise welfare by internalizing the infrastructural externality. Infrastructural externalities increase the importance of tax policy in the growth process and distribute the benefits of taxation across countries

Research to determine cloud and synoptic parameters associated with clear air turbulence Interim report

Clear air turbulence in stratosphere and tropospher

Unanticipated Money

The role of unanticipated changes in money growth for aggregate fluctuations is reexamined using the methods of quantitative equilibrium business cycle theory. A stochastic growth model with money is constructed that has the feature, following Lucas (1972, 1975), that production and trade take place in spatially separated markets (islands). Individuals must infer changes in the aggregate price level from observing local relative prices. This causes individuals to react to changes in the average price level, due to unanticipated changes in the aggregate money supply, as though they were changes in market specific relative prices. We show that this mechanism can lead to quantitatively large fluctuations in real economic activity. The statistical properties of these fluctuations, however, are quite different from the properties of fluctuations observed in the U.S. economy.Business Cycles, Monetary Policy, Aggregate Fluctuations, Real Business Cycles

Effects of Enamel Paint on the Behavior and Survival of the Periodical Cicada, \u3ci\u3eMagicicada Septendecim\u3c/i\u3e (Homoptera) and the Lesser Migratory Grasshopper, \u3ci\u3eMelanoplus Sanguinipes (Orthoptera).

We present information compiled from several studies on the effects of methods for marking individual arthropods on their longevity and behavior. Results from our own research on effects of enamel paint marking on two in- sect species, the periodical cicada, Magicicada septendecim, and the lesser migratory grasshopper, Melanoplus sanguinipes, are also presented. Neither species showed any adverse survivorship or behavioral effects from marking

Discussion of "Statistical Modeling of Spatial Extremes" by A. C. Davison, S. A. Padoan and M. Ribatet

Discussion of "Statistical Modeling of Spatial Extremes" by A. C. Davison, S. A. Padoan and M. Ribatet [arXiv:1208.3378].Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-STS376A the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Identification Theory for Time Varying Models

The identification of time-varying coefficient regression models is investigated using an analysis of the classical information matrix. The variable coefficients are characterized by autoregressive stochastic processes, allowing the entire model to be case in state space form. Thus the unknown stochastic specification parameters and priors can be interpreted in terms of the coefficient matrices and initial state vector. Concentration of the likelihood function on these quantities allows the identification of each to be considered separately. Suitable restriction of the form of the state space model, coupled with the concept of controllability, lead to sufficient conditions for the identification of the coefficient transition parameters. Partial identification of the variance-covariance matrix for the random disturbances on the coefficients is established in a like manner. Introducing the additional concept of observability then provides for necessary and sufficient conditions for identification of the unknown priors. The results so obtained are completely analogous to those already established in the econometric literature, namely, that the coefficients of the reduced form are always identified subject to the absence of multicollinearity. Some consistency results are also presented which derive from the above approach.

New Records of Michigan Cicadidae (Homoptera), With Notes on the Use of Songs to Monitor Range Changes

We present records of Diceroprocta vitripennis, Tibicen chloromera, and Tibicen pruinosa (new state record) in Michigan. Monitoring geographic range changes and population size differences by song suggests several population situations for cicadas: (1) sizable populations in most areas of apparently good habitat; (2) widely separated single individuals or small populations on the edges of populated regions, representing range extensions that may be of limited duration; (3) one or a few individuals present only once, probably transferred in soil on roots, and ultimately unsuccessful. Species- specific calling songs allow sensitive measurement of species\u27 range changes

Non-linear effect of uniaxial pressure on superconductivity in CeCoIn5

We study single-crystal CeCoIn5 with uniaxial pressure up to 3.97 kbar applied along the c-axis. We find a non-linear dependence of the superconducting transition temperature Tc on pressure, with a maximum close to 2 kbar. The transition also broadens significantly as pressure increases. We discuss the temperature dependence in terms of the general trend that Tc decreases in anisotropic heavy-fermion compounds as they move towards three-dimensional behavior.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figure