Modelling morbidity for neglected tropical diseases: the long and winding road from cumulative exposure to long-term pathology

Reducing the morbidities caused by neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) is a central aim of ongoing disease control programmes. The broad spectrum of pathogens under the umbrella of NTDs lead to a range of negative health outcomes, from malnutrition and anaemia to organ failure, blindness and carcinogenesis. For some NTDs, the most severe clinical manifestations develop over many years of chronic or repeated infection. For these diseases, the association between infection and risk of long-term pathology is generally complex, and the impact of multiple interacting factors, such as age, co-morbidities and host immune response, is often poorly quantified. Mathematical modelling has been used for many years to gain insights into the complex processes underlying the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases; however, long-term morbidities associated with chronic or cumulative exposure are generally not incorporated into dynamic models for NTDs. Here we consider the complexities and challenges for determining the relationship between cumulative pathogen exposure and morbidity at the individual and population levels, drawing on case studies for trachoma, schistosomiasis and foodborne trematodiasis. We explore potential frameworks for explicitly incorporating long-term morbidity into NTD transmission models, and consider the insights such frameworks may bring in terms of policy-relevant projections for the elimination era. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs’

Reduced efficacy of praziquantel against Schistosoma mansoni associated with multiple-rounds of mass drug administration

The efficacy of praziquantel against Schistosoma mansoni was significantly lower in Ugandan schools that had received more prior rounds of mass drug administration, as determined by fitting a statistical model to parasite egg counts before and after treatment

epicontacts: Handling, visualisation and analysis of epidemiological contacts.

Epidemiological outbreak data is often captured in line list and contact format to facilitate contact tracing for outbreak control. epicontacts is an R package that provides a unique data structure for combining these data into a single object in order to facilitate more efficient visualisation and analysis. The package incorporates interactive visualisation functionality as well as network analysis techniques. Originally developed as part of the Hackout3 event, it is now developed, maintained and featured as part of the R Epidemics Consortium (RECON). The package is available for download from the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) and GitHub

Transmission dynamics and control of multidrug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae in neonates in a developing country.

Multidrug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae is an increasing cause of infant mortality in developing countries. We aimed to develop a quantitative understanding of the drivers of this epidemic by estimating the effects of antibiotics on nosocomial transmission risk, comparing competing hypotheses about mechanisms of spread, and quantifying the impact of potential interventions. Using a sequence of dynamic models, we analysed data from a one-year prospective carriage study in a Cambodian neonatal intensive care unit with hyperendemic third-generation cephalosporin-resistant K. pneumoniae. All widely-used antibiotics except imipenem were associated with an increased daily acquisition risk, with an odds ratio for the most common combination (ampicillin + gentamicin) of 1.96 (95% CrI 1.18, 3.36). Models incorporating genomic data found that colonisation pressure was associated with a higher transmission risk, indicated sequence type heterogeneity in transmissibility, and showed that within-ward transmission was insufficient to maintain endemicity. Simulations indicated that increasing the nurse-patient ratio could be an effective intervention

Towards Evidence-based Control of Opisthorchis viverrini.

Transmission of the carcinogenic liver fluke Opisthorchis viverrini is ongoing across Southeast Asia. Endemic countries within the region are in different stages of achieving control. However, evidence on which interventions are the most effective for reducing parasite transmission, and the resulting liver cancer, is currently lacking. Quantitative modelling can be used to evaluate different control measures against O. viverrini and assist the design of clinical trials. In this article we evaluate the epidemiological parameters that underpin models of O. viverrini and the data necessary for their estimation, with the aim of developing evidence-based strategies for parasite control at a national or regional level

The global distribution and transmission limits of lymphatic filariasis: past and present.

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for global elimination by 2020 and to guide elimination efforts countries have, in recent years, conducted extensive mapping surveys. Documenting the past and present distribution of LF and its environmental limits is important for a number of reasons. Here, we present an initiative to develop a global atlas of LF and present a new global map of the limits of LF transmission. METHODS: We undertook a systematic search and assembly of prevalence data worldwide and used a suite of environmental and climatic data and boosted regression trees (BRT) modelling to map the transmission limits of LF. RESULTS: Data were identified for 66 of the 72 countries currently endemic and for a further 17 countries where LF is no longer endemic. Our map highlights a restricted and highly heterogeneous distribution in sub-Saharan Africa, with transmission more widespread in West Africa compared to east, central and southern Africa where pockets of transmission occur. Contemporary transmission occurs across much of south and South-east Asia and the Pacific. Interestingly, the risk map reflects environmental conditions suitable for LF transmission across Central and South America, including the southern States of America, although active transmission is only known in a few isolated foci. In countries that have eliminated LF, our predictions of environmental suitability are consistent with historical distribution. CONCLUSIONS: The global distribution of LF is highly heterogeneous and geographically targeted and sustained control will be required to achieve elimination. This first global map can help evaluate the progress of interventions and guide surveillance activities

Diagnosis of helminths depends on worm fecundity and the distribution of parasites within hosts

Helminth transmission and morbidity are dependent on the number of mature parasites within a host; however, observing adult worms is impossible for many natural infections. An outstanding challenge is therefore relating routine diagnostics, such as faecal egg counts, to the underlying worm burden. This relationship is complicated by density-dependent fecundity (egg output per worm reduces due to crowding at high burdens) and the skewed distribution of parasites (majority of helminths aggregated in a small fraction of hosts). We address these questions for the carcinogenic liver fluke Opisthorchis viverrini, which infects approximately 10 million people across Southeast Asia, by analysing five epidemiological surveys (n = 641) where adult flukes were recovered. Using a mechanistic model, we show that parasite fecundity varies between populations, with surveys from Thailand and Laos demonstrating distinct patterns of egg output and density-dependence. As the probability of observing faecal eggs increases with the number of mature parasites within a host, we quantify diagnostic sensitivity as a function of the worm burden and find that greater than 50% of cases are misdiagnosed as false negative in communities close to elimination. Finally, we demonstrate that the relationship between observed prevalence from routine diagnostics and true prevalence is nonlinear and strongly influenced by parasite aggregation

Genomes of all known members of a Plasmodium subgenus reveal paths to virulent human malaria

Plasmodium falciparum, the most virulent agent of human malaria, shares a recent common ancestor with the gorilla parasite Plasmodium praefalciparum. Little is known about the other gorilla- and chimpanzee-infecting species in the same (Laverania) subgenus as P. falciparum, but none of them are capable of establishing repeated infection and transmission in humans. To elucidate underlying mechanisms and the evolutionary history of this subgenus, we have generated multiple genomes from all known Laverania species. The completeness of our dataset allows us to conclude that interspecific gene transfers, as well as convergent evolution, were important in the evolution of these species. Striking copy number and structural variations were observed within gene families and one, stevor, shows a host-specific sequence pattern. The complete genome sequence of the closest ancestor of P. falciparum enables us to estimate the timing of the beginning of speciation to be 40,000–60,000 years ago followed by a population bottleneck around 4,000–6,000 years ago. Our data allow us also to search in detail for the features of P. falciparum that made it the only member of the Laverania able to infect and spread in humans

Long-term persistence of Opisthorchis viverrini antigen in urine: a prospective study in northeast Thailand

Antigen detected in urine for the diagnosis of opisthorchiasis has a low daily variation; however, the longer term variability in antigen concentrations is unknown. In this study, we prospectively monitored Opisthorchis viverrini antigen concentrations for 30 consecutive days and at subsequent monthly intervals in a cohort of opisthorchiasis-positive individuals. On the basis of the monoclonal antibody–based ELISA, the profiles of antigen-positive rate and antigen concentration exhibited no significant change over 30 days with a mean proportion positive of 87.1% (range 73.7%–100%), and the average antigen concentration was 29.7 ± 2.2 ng/mL (mean ± SE). The urine antigen concentration at baseline was similar to the subsequent measurements at 2, 4, 6, and 10 months in the follow-up study (P > 0.05). The consistency and low daily and long-term fluctuation of O. viverrini antigen in urine demonstrates the reliability of urine assay for diagnosis of opisthorchiasis