Data for the paper on "Early school failure predicts teenage pregnancy and marriage: a large population-based cohort study in Northern Malawi"

The data originate from a demographic surveillance site (DSS) in Karonga district in northern Malawi covering a population of >35,000 individuals from approx. 8000 households since 2002. This is run by MEIRU (Malawi Epidemiology and Intervention Research Unit). Annual individual and household-level socio-demographic and schooling data were combined with data on participants’ sexual behaviour, including age at sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage to examine the relationship between school progression (drop-out and age-for-grade) and sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage

Data for the paper on “Does early growth failure influence later school performance? A cohort study in Karonga district, northern Malawi”

Anthropometric data collected as part of the baseline census of a demographic surveillance performed between 2002 and 2004 in the southern part of Karonga district in northern Malawi. Data was collected at birth, with follow-up after a year and with further rounds of anthropometric data for all children below the age of 10 between 2008-2011. Individual and household-level socio-demographic and schooling data were also combined to account for socio-economic and schooling histories of participants from 2007-2015, allowing us to examine the relationship between stunting in early years and school outcomes at older ages

Postpartum uptake of contraception in rural northern Malawi: A prospective study.

OBJECTIVES: Cross-sectional estimates of contraceptive use do not provide understanding of time to postpartum uptake. This paper uses a range of Malawian data sources: a prospective study to explore time to uptake of contraception and a cross-sectional survey to assess whether sexually active postpartum women whose fecundity has returned use contraception, and whether abstaining/amenorrheic women report using contraception. STUDY DESIGN: A demographic surveillance site (DSS) in Malawi was used to identify 7393 women aged 15-49 years eligible for a 1-year prospective study of contraception using provider-recorded data on patient-held records (2012-2013). This provided a reliable record of time to uptake of postpartum contraception. The average timing of resumption of sexual activities after postpartum abstinence and return of menses was estimated from a population-based sexual behaviour survey in the DSS (2010-2011). RESULTS: Of 4678 women recruited to the prospective contraception study, 442 delivered an infant during the observation period. Of these, 28.4% used modern contraception within 6 months of delivery. However, at 6-9 months after delivery, only 28.0% women had started menstruation and resumed sexual activities; of these, 77.6% used contraception. Amongst abstaining/amenorrheic women, a quarter reported contraceptive use. CONCLUSIONS: The low uptake of postpartum contraception is likely due to many women abstaining and/or experiencing amenorrhea. Self-reports of contraceptive use amongst abstaining/amenorrheic women bring into question the quality of cross-sectional surveys and demonstrate that contraceptive use by women at low risk of pregnancy could contribute to the Malawi paradox of high contraceptive use and high fertility. Given relatively low risk of pregnancy in the postpartum period in this context, a focus on long-acting/permanent methods may be more effective to avert unintended pregnancies. IMPLICATIONS: There has been increasing interest in the utility of postpartum contraceptive programmes to assist women to space births. Our findings suggest that, although uptake of contraception is low, this is partly due to postpartum abstinence and amenorrhea. Provision of long-acting/permanent methods will be more effective for women after delivery

Trends and measurement of HIV prevalence in northern Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Most data on HIV prevalence in Malawi come from antenatal clinic (ANC) surveillance and are, therefore, subject to bias. OBJECTIVES: HIV prevalence and risk factors were measured using population-based data to assess the accuracy of ANC surveillance and changes in prevalence and risk factors for HIV over time. METHODS: HIV prevalence was measured in 1988-1993 and 1998-2001 in community controls from case-control studies of mycobacterial disease in Karonga District, Malawi. ANC surveillance studies in the district began in 1999. RESULTS: Age and area-standardized HIV prevalence in women aged 15-49 years in the community was 3.9% in 1988-1990, 12.5% in 1991-1993 and 13.9% in 1998-2001. For men, HIV prevalence was 3.7%, 9.2% and 11.4% in the same periods. In 1988-1993, HIV positivity was associated with occupations other than farming, with increased schooling and being born outside Karonga District. In 1998-2001, non-farmers were still at higher risk but the other associations were not seen. The age- and area-adjusted HIV prevalence in the ANC in 1999-2001 was 9.2%. The underestimate can be explained largely by marriage and mobility. Reduced fertility in HIV-positive individuals was demonstrated in both ANC and community populations. A previously recommended parity-based adjustment gave an estimated female HIV prevalence of 15.0%. CONCLUSIONS: HIV prevalence has increased and continues to be higher in non-farmers. The increase is particularly marked in those with no education. ANC surveillance underestimated HIV prevalence in the female population in all but the youngest age group. Although there were differences in sociodemographic factors, a parity-based adjustment gave a reasonable estimate of female HIV prevalence

Earlier menarche is associated with a higher prevalence of Herpes simplex type-2 (HSV-2) in young women in rural Malawi

Remarkably little is known about associations between age at menarche and sexually transmitted infections, although girls with earlier menarche tend to have earlier sexual debut and school drop-out, so an association might be expected. In a population-based survey of >3000 women aged 15–30 in northern Malawi we show that those with earlier menarche had earlier sexual debut, earlier marriage and were more often Herpes simplex type-2 (HSV-2) positive. Compared to those with menarche aged <14, the age-adjusted odds ratios for HSV-2 were 0.89 (95%CI 0.71–1.1), 0.71 (0.57–0.89) and 0.69 (0.54–0.89) for menarche aged 14, 15 and 16+ respectively. This association persisted after adjusting for socio-economic factors, including schooling, and for sexual behaviour. No such association was seen with HIV infection, which is much less common and less uniformly distributed than HSV-2 in this population. The extra vulnerability of girls with earlier menarche needs to be recognised

Earlier menarche is associated with a higher prevalence of Herpes simplex type-2 (HSV-2) in young women in rural Malawi.

Remarkably little is known about associations between age at menarche and sexually transmitted infections, although girls with earlier menarche tend to have earlier sexual debut and school drop-out, so an association might be expected. In a population-based survey of >3000 women aged 15-30 in northern Malawi we show that those with earlier menarche had earlier sexual debut, earlier marriage and were more often Herpes simplex type-2 (HSV-2) positive. Compared to those with menarche aged <14, the age-adjusted odds ratios for HSV-2 were 0.89 (95%CI 0.71-1.1), 0.71 (0.57-0.89) and 0.69 (0.54-0.89) for menarche aged 14, 15 and 16+ respectively. This association persisted after adjusting for socio-economic factors, including schooling, and for sexual behaviour. No such association was seen with HIV infection, which is much less common and less uniformly distributed than HSV-2 in this population. The extra vulnerability of girls with earlier menarche needs to be recognised. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.01604.001

The importance of recent infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in an area with high HIV prevalence: a long-term molecular epidemiological study in Northern Malawi.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of cases of tuberculosis due to recent infection can be estimated in long-term population-based studies using molecular techniques. Here, we present what is, to our knowledge, the first such study in an area with high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence. METHODS: All patients with tuberculosis in Karonga District, Malawi, were interviewed. Isolates were genotyped using restriction-fragment-length polymorphism (RFLP) patterns. Strains were considered to be "clustered" if at least 1 other patient had an isolate with an identical pattern. RESULTS: RFLP results were available from 83% of culture-positive patients from late 1995 to early 2003. When strains with <5 bands were excluded, 72% (682/948) were clustered. Maximum clustering was reached using a 4-year window, with an estimated two-thirds of cases due to recent transmission. The proportion clustered decreased with age and varied by area of residence. In older adults, clustering was less common in men and more common in patients who were HIV positive (adjusted odds ratio, 5.1 [95% confidence interval, 2.1-12.6]). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion clustered found in the present study was among the highest in the world, suggesting high rates of recent transmission. The association with HIV infection in older adults may suggest that HIV has a greater impact on disease caused by recent transmission than on that caused by reactivation

Bayesian reconstruction of Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission networks in a high incidence area over two decades in Malawi reveals associated risk factors and genomic variants.

Understanding host and pathogen factors that influence tuberculosis (TB) transmission can inform strategies to eliminate the spread of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). Determining transmission links between cases of TB is complicated by a long and variable latency period and undiagnosed cases, although methods are improving through the application of probabilistic modelling and whole-genome sequence analysis. Using a large dataset of 1857 whole-genome sequences and comprehensive metadata from Karonga District, Malawi, over 19 years, we reconstructed Mtb transmission networks using a two-step Bayesian approach that identified likely infector and recipient cases, whilst robustly allowing for incomplete case sampling. We investigated demographic and pathogen genomic variation associated with transmission and clustering in our networks. We found that whilst there was a significant decrease in the proportion of infectors over time, we found higher transmissibility and large transmission clusters for lineage 2 (Beijing) strains. By performing evolutionary convergence testing (phyC) and genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) on transmitting versus non-transmitting cases, we identified six loci, PPE54, accD2, PE_PGRS62, rplI, Rv3751 and Rv2077c, that were associated with transmission. This study provides a framework for reconstructing large-scale Mtb transmission networks. We have highlighted potential host and pathogen characteristics that were linked to increased transmission in a high-burden setting and identified genomic variants that, with validation, could inform further studies into transmissibility and TB eradication

Does early linear growth failure influence later school performance? A cohort study in Karonga district, northern Malawi.

INTRODUCTION: Stunting or linear growth retardation in childhood is associated with delayed cognitive development due to related causes (malnutrition, illness, poor stimulation), which leads to poor school outcomes at later ages, although evidence of the association between the timing and persistence of stunting and school outcomes within the sub-Saharan African context is limited. METHODS: Anthropometric data around birth (0-4 months), early (11-16 months) and late childhood (ages 4-8 years) along with school outcomes up until the age of 11 were analysed for a cohort of 1,044 respondents, born between 2002-2004 in Karonga district, northern Malawi. The schooling outcomes were age at school enrolment, grade repetition in Standard 1 and age-for-grade by age 11. Height-for-Age Z-scores (HAZ) and growth trajectories were examined as predictors, based on stunting (<-2SD HAZ) and on trajectories between early and late childhood (never stunted, improvers, decliners or persistently stunted). Multinomial and logistic regression were used to estimate the association between stunting/trajectories and schooling, adjusted for socioeconomic confounders. RESULTS: The effects of stunting on schooling were evident in early childhood but were more pronounced in late childhood. Children who were stunted in early childhood (9.3%) were less likely to be underage at enrolment, more likely to repeat Standard 1 and were 2-3 times more likely to be overage for their grade by the age of 11, compared to their non-stunted peers. Those persistently stunted between early and late childhood (7.3%) faced the worst consequences on schooling, being three times as likely to enrol late and 3-5 times more likely to be overage for their grade by the age of 11, compared to those never stunted. Compared to improvers, those persistently stunted were three times as likely to be overage by two or more years by the age of 11, with no effect on enrolment or repetition. CONCLUSION: Our findings confirm the importance of early childhood stunting on schooling outcomes and suggest some mitigation by improvements in growth by the age of starting school. The nutritional and learning needs of those persistently stunted may need to be prioritised in future interventions

Persisting high prevalence of pneumococcal carriage among HIV-infected adults receiving antiretroviral therapy in Malawi:a cohort study

OBJECTIVE: HIV-infected adults have high rates of pneumococcal carriage and invasive disease. We investigated the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on pneumococcal carriage in HIV-infected adults prior to infant pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) rollout. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. METHODS: We recruited HIV-infected adults newly attending a rural HIV clinic in northern Malawi between 2008 and 2010. Nasopharyngeal samples were taken at baseline and after 6, 12, 18 and 24 months. We compared pneumococcal carriage by ART status using generalized estimated equation models adjusted for CD4 cell count, sex, seasonality, and other potential confounders. RESULTS: In total, 336 individuals were included, of which 223 individuals started ART during follow-up. Individuals receiving ART had higher pneumococcal carriage than individuals not receiving ART (25.9 vs. 19.8%, P = 0.03) particularly for serotypes not included in PCV13 (16.1 vs. 9.6% P = 0.003). Following adjustment, increased carriage of non-PCV13 serotypes was still observed for individuals on ART, but results for all serotypes were nonsignificant [all serotypes: adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 1.22 (0.95-1.56); non-PCV13 serotypes: aRR 1.72, 95% CI 1.13-2.62]. CONCLUSION: Pneumococcal carriage in HIV-infected adults in Malawi remained high despite use of ART, consistent with failure of mucosal immune reconstitution in the upper respiratory tract. There was evidence of increased carriage of non-PCV13 serotypes. HIV-infected adults on ART could remain an important reservoir for pneumococcal diversity post infant pneumococcal vaccine introduction. Control of pneumococcal disease in African HIV remains a priority