Predicting the long-term impact of antiretroviral therapy scale-up on population incidence of tuberculosis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on long-term population-level tuberculosis disease (TB) incidence in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We used a mathematical model to consider the effect of different assumptions about life expectancy and TB risk during long-term ART under alternative scenarios for trends in population HIV incidence and ART coverage. RESULTS: All the scenarios we explored predicted that the widespread introduction of ART would initially reduce population-level TB incidence. However, many modelled scenarios projected a rebound in population-level TB incidence after around 20 years. This rebound was predicted to exceed the TB incidence present before ART scale-up if decreases in HIV incidence during the same period were not sufficiently rapid or if the protective effect of ART on TB was not sustained. Nevertheless, most scenarios predicted a reduction in the cumulative TB incidence when accompanied by a relative decline in HIV incidence of more than 10% each year. CONCLUSIONS: Despite short-term benefits of ART scale-up on population TB incidence in sub-Saharan Africa, longer-term projections raise the possibility of a rebound in TB incidence. This highlights the importance of sustaining good adherence and immunologic response to ART and, crucially, the need for effective HIV preventive interventions, including early widespread implementation of ART

Antiretroviral Outcomes in South African Prisoners: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis

Background and Methods: Little is known about antiretroviral therapy (ART) outcomes in prisoners in Africa. We conducted a retrospective review of outcomes of a large cohort of prisoners referred to a public sector, urban HIV clinic. The review included baseline characteristics, sequential CD4 cell counts and viral load results, complications and co-morbidities, mortality and loss to follow-up up to 96 weeks on ART. Findings: 148 inmates (133 male) initiated on ART were included in the study. By week 96 on ART, 73 % of all inmates enrolled in the study and 92 % of those still accessing care had an undetectable viral load (,400copies/ml). The median CD4 cell count increased from 122 cells/mm 3 at baseline to 356 cells/mm 3 by 96 weeks. By study end, 96 (65%) inmates had ever received tuberculosis (TB) therapy with 63 (43%) receiving therapy during the study: 28 % had a history of TB prior to ART initiation, 33 % were on TB therapy at ART initiation and 22 % developed TB whilst on ART. Nine (6%) inmates died, 7 in the second year on ART. Loss to follow-up (LTF) was common: 14 (9%) patients were LTF whilst still incarcerated, 11 (7%) were LTF post-release and 9 (6%) whose movements could not be traced. 16 (11%) inmates had inter-correctional facility transfers and 34 (23%) were released of whom only 23 (68%) returned to the ART clinic for ongoing follow-up. Conclusions: Inmates responded well to ART, despite a high frequency of TB/HIV co-infection. Attention should be directed towards ensuring eligible prisoners access ART programs promptly and that inter-facility transfers and release procedure

HIV Prevention in Care and Treatment Settings: Baseline Risk Behaviors among HIV Patients in Kenya, Namibia, and Tanzania.

HIV care and treatment settings provide an opportunity to reach people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) with prevention messages and services. Population-based surveys in sub-Saharan Africa have identified HIV risk behaviors among PLHIV, yet data are limited regarding HIV risk behaviors of PLHIV in clinical care. This paper describes the baseline sociodemographic, HIV transmission risk behaviors, and clinical data of a study evaluating an HIV prevention intervention package for HIV care and treatment clinics in Africa. The study was a longitudinal group-randomized trial in 9 intervention clinics and 9 comparison clinics in Kenya, Namibia, and Tanzania (N = 3538). Baseline participants were mostly female, married, had less than a primary education, and were relatively recently diagnosed with HIV. Fifty-two percent of participants had a partner of negative or unknown status, 24% were not using condoms consistently, and 11% reported STI symptoms in the last 6 months. There were differences in demographic and HIV transmission risk variables by country, indicating the need to consider local context in designing studies and using caution when generalizing findings across African countries. Baseline data from this study indicate that participants were often engaging in HIV transmission risk behaviors, which supports the need for prevention with PLHIV (PwP). TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01256463

Criminal and Noncriminal Psychopathy: The Devil is in the Detail

Brooks, NS ORCiD: 0000-0003-1784-099XPsychopathy is prevalent and problematic in criminal populations, but is also found to be present in noncriminal populations. In 1992, Robert Hare declared that psychopaths may also “be found in the boardroom”, which has since been followed by an interest in the issue of noncriminal, or even successful, psychopathy. In this chapter, the paradox of criminal and noncriminal psychopathy is discussed with specific attention given to the similarities and differences that account for psychopathic personality across contexts. That psychopathy is a condition typified by a constellation of traits and behaviours requires wider research across diverse populations, and thus the streams of research related to criminal and noncriminal psychopathy are presented and the implications of these contrasting streams are explored

A rigorous approach to investigating common assumptions about disease transmission: Process algebra as an emerging modelling methodology for epidemiology

Changing scale, for example the ability to move seamlessly from an individual-based model to a population-based model, is an important problem in many fields. In this paper we introduce process algebra as a novel solution to this problem in the context of models of infectious disease spread. Process algebra allows us to describe a system in terms of the stochastic behaviour of individuals, and is a technique from computer science. We review the use of process algebra in biological systems, and the variety of quantitative and qualitative analysis techniques available. The analysis illustrated here solves the changing scale problem: from the individual behaviour we can rigorously derive equations to describe the mean behaviour of the system at the level of the population. The biological problem investigated is the transmission of infection, and how this relates to individual interaction

Population-Level Reduction in Adult Mortality after Extension of Free Anti-Retroviral Therapy Provision into Rural Areas in Northern Malawi

BACKGROUND: Four studies from sub-Saharan Africa have found a substantial population-level effect of ART provision on adult mortality. It is important to see if the impact changes with time since the start of treatment scale-up, and as treatment moves to smaller clinics. METHODS AND FINDINGS: During 2002-4 a demographic surveillance site (DSS) was established in Karonga district, northern Malawi. Information on births and deaths is collected monthly, with verbal autopsies conducted for all deaths; migrations are updated annually. We analysed mortality trends by comparing three time periods: pre-ART roll-out in the district (August 2002-June 2005), ART period 1 (July 2005-September 2006) when ART was available only in a town 70 km away, and ART period 2 (October 2006-September 2008), when ART was available at a clinic within the DSS area. HIV prevalence and ART uptake were estimated from a sero-survey conducted in 2007/2008. The all-cause mortality rate among 15-59 year olds was 10.2 per 1000 person-years in the pre-ART period (288 deaths/28285 person-years). It fell by 16% in ART period 1 and by 32% in ART period 2 (95% CI 18%-43%), compared with the pre-ART period. The AIDS mortality rate fell from 6.4 to 4.6 to 2.7 per 1000 person-years in the pre-ART period, period 1 and period 2 respectively (rate ratio for period 2 = 0.43, 95% CI 0.33-0.56). There was little change in non-AIDS mortality. Treatment coverage among individuals eligible to start ART was around 70% in 2008. CONCLUSIONS: ART can have a dramatic effect on mortality in a resource-constrained setting in Africa, at least in the early years of treatment provision. Our findings support the decentralised delivery of ART from peripheral health centres with unsophisticated facilities. Continued funding to maintain and further scale-up treatment provision will bring large benefits in terms of saving lives

Linkage to HIV Care and Antiretroviral Therapy in Cape Town, South Africa

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been scaled-up rapidly in Africa. Programme reports typically focus on loss to follow-up and mortality among patients receiving ART. However, little is known about linkage and retention in care of individuals prior to starting ART. METHODOLOGY: Data on adult residents from a periurban community in Cape Town were collected at a primary care clinic and hospital. HIV testing registers, CD4 count results provided by the National Health Laboratory System and ART registers were linked. A random sample (n = 885) was drawn from adults testing HIV positive through antenatal care, sexual transmitted disease and voluntary testing and counseling services between January 2004 and March 2009. All adults (n = 103) testing HIV positive through TB services during the same time period were also included in the study. Linkage to HIV care was defined as attending for a CD4 count measurement within 6 months of HIV diagnosis. Linkage to ART care was defined as initiating ART within 6 months of HIV diagnosis in individuals with a CD4 count ≤200 cells/µl taken within 6 months of HIV diagnosis. FINDINGS: Only 62.6% of individuals attended for a CD4 count measurement within 6 months of testing HIV positive. Individuals testing through sexually transmitted infection services had the best (84.1%) and individuals testing on their own initiative (53.5%) the worst linkage to HIV care. One third of individuals with timely CD4 counts were eligible for ART and 66.7% of those were successfully linked to ART care. Linkage to ART care was highest among antenatal care clients. Among individuals not yet eligible for ART only 46.3% had a repeat CD4 count. Linkage to HIV care improved in patients tested in more recent calendar period. CONCLUSION: Linkage to HIV and ART care was low in this poor peri-urban community despite free services available within close proximity. More efforts are needed to link VCT scale-up to subsequent care

Women experience a better long-term immune recovery and a better survival on HAART in Lao People's Democratic Republic.

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In April 2003, Médecins Sans Frontières launched an HIV/AIDS programme to provide free HAART to HIV-infected patients in Laos. Although HIV prevalence is estimated as low in this country, it has been increasing in the last years. This work reports the first results of an observational cohort study and it aims to identify the principal determinants of the CD4 cells evolution and to assess mortality among patients on HAART.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed a retrospective database analysis on patients initiated on HAART between 2003 and 2009 (CD4<200cells/μL or WHO stage 4). We excluded from the analysis patients who were less than 16 years old and pregnant women. To explore the determinants of the CD4 reconstitution, a linear mixed model was adjusted. To identify typical trajectories of the CD4 cells, a latent trajectory analysis was carried out. Finally, a Cox proportional-hazards model was used to reveal predictors of mortality on HAART including appointment delay greater than 1 day.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 1365 patients entered the programme and 913 (66.9%) received an HAART with a median CD4 of 49 cells/μL [IQR 15–148]. High baseline CD4 cell count and female gender were associated with a higher CD4 level over time. In addition, this gender difference increased over time. Two typical latent CD4 trajectories were revealed showing that 31% of women against 22% of men followed a high CD4 trajectory. In the long-term, women were more likely to attend appointments without delay. Mortality reached 6.2% (95% CI 4.8-8.0%) at 4 months and 9.1% (95% CI 7.3-11.3%) at 1 year. Female gender (HR=0.17, 95% CI 0.07-0.44) and high CD4 trajectory (HR=0.19, 95% CI 0.08-0.47) were independently associated with a lower death rate.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Patients who initiated HAART were severely immunocompromised yielding to a high early mortality. In the long-term on HAART, women achieved a better CD4 cells reconstitution than men and were less likely to die. This study highlights important differences between men and women regarding response to HAART and medical care, and questions men’s compliance to treatment.</p

Four-Year Treatment Outcomes of Adult Patients Enrolled in Mozambique's Rapidly Expanding Antiretroviral Therapy Program

BACKGROUND: In Mozambique during 2004-2007 numbers of adult patients (≥15 years old) enrolled on antiretroviral therapy (ART) increased about 16-fold, from <5,000 to 79,500. All ART patients were eligible for co-trimoxazole. ART program outcomes, and determinants of outcomes, have not yet been reported. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In a retrospective cohort study, we investigated rates of mortality, attrition (death, loss to follow-up, or treatment cessation), immunologic treatment failure, and regimen-switch, as well as determinants of selected outcomes, among a nationally representative sample of 2,596 adults initiating ART during 2004-2007. At ART initiation, median age of patients was 34 and 62% were female. Malnutrition and advanced disease were common; 18% of patients weighed <45 kilograms, and 15% were WHO stage IV. Median baseline CD4(+) T-cell count was 153/µL and was lower for males than females (139/µL vs. 159/µL, p<0.01). Stavudine, lamivudine, and nevirapine or efavirenz were prescribed to 88% of patients; only 31% were prescribed co-trimoxazole. Mortality and attrition rates were 3.4 deaths and 19.8 attritions per 100 patient-years overall, and 12.9 deaths and 57.2 attritions per 100 patient-years in the first 90 days. Predictors of attrition included male sex [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.3-1.8], weight <45 kg (AHR 2.1; 95% CI, 1.6-2.9, reference group >60 kg), WHO stage IV (AHR 1.7; 95% CI, 1.3-2.4, reference group WHO stage I/II), lack of co-trimoxazole prescription (AHR 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0-1.8), and later calendar year of ART initiation (AHR 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2-1.8). Rates of immunologic treatment failure and regimen-switch were 14.0 and 0.6 events per 100-patient years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: ART initiation at earlier disease stages and scale-up of co-trimoxazole among ART patients could improve outcomes. Research to determine reasons for low regimen-switch rates and increasing rates of attrition during program expansion is needed