A Stochastic Budgeting Analysis of Three Alternative Scenarios to Convert from Beef-Cattle Farming to Game Ranching

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the profitability and financial feasibility of three alternative scenarios to convert from beef-cattle farming to game ranching. The analyses acknowledge the importance of quantifying the probability of failure or success when making investment decisions. Risk is incorporated into a standard net present value analysis using risk simulation. De-trended historical auction prices of live game and on-the-hoof prices of weaner cattle were used to quantify price variability. The stochastic net present value analyses indicate that game ranching is more profitable than cattle farming. Although an investment in a limited number of common game species is financially feasible, the cash flow analysis indicates a decreasing probability of making more money with game when annual cash flows are compared to those generated by means of cattle farming. Both the high-value game species scenarios are financially unfeasible during the first five years. These infeasibilities stem from a high probability of not covering instalments to finance game purchases, the extent to which these instalments are not covered, and the high probability of shortfalls in consecutive years.Game ranching, profitability, financial feasibility, risk simulation, Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries,

Co-Operative Additive Effects between HLA Alleles in Control of HIV-1

Background: HLA class I genotype is a major determinant of the outcome of HIV infection, and the impact of certain alleles on HIV disease outcome is well studied. Recent studies have demonstrated that certain HLA class I alleles that are in linkage disequilibrium, such as HLA-A*74 and HLA-B*57, appear to function co-operatively to result in greater immune control of HIV than mediated by either single allele alone. We here investigate the extent to which HLA alleles - irrespective of linkage disequilibrium - function co-operatively. Methodology/Principal Findings: We here refined a computational approach to the analysis of >2000 subjects infected with C-clade HIV first to discern the individual effect of each allele on disease control, and second to identify pairs of alleles that mediate ‘co-operative additive’ effects, either to improve disease suppression or to contribute to immunological failure. We identified six pairs of HLA class I alleles that have a co-operative additive effect in mediating HIV disease control and four hazardous pairs of alleles that, occurring together, are predictive of worse disease outcomes (q<0.05 in each case). We developed a novel ‘sharing score’ to quantify the breadth of CD8+ T cell responses made by pairs of HLA alleles across the HIV proteome, and used this to demonstrate that successful viraemic suppression correlates with breadth of unique CD8+ T cell responses (p = 0.03). Conclusions/Significance: These results identify co-operative effects between HLA Class I alleles in the control of HIV-1 in an extended Southern African cohort, and underline complementarity and breadth of the CD8+ T cell targeting as one potential mechanism for this effect

Ten-year mortality, disease progression, and treatment-related side effects in men with localised prostate cancer from the ProtecT randomised controlled trial according to treatment received

Background The ProtecT trial reported intention-to-treat analysis of men with localised prostate cancer randomly allocated to active monitoring (AM), radical prostatectomy, and external beam radiotherapy. Objective To report outcomes according to treatment received in men in randomised and treatment choice cohorts. Design, setting, and participants This study focuses on secondary care. Men with clinically localised prostate cancer at one of nine UK centres were invited to participate in the treatment trial comparing AM, radical prostatectomy, and radiotherapy. Intervention Two cohorts included 1643 men who agreed to be randomised and 997 who declined randomisation and chose treatment. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis Analysis was carried out to assess mortality, metastasis and progression and health-related quality of life impacts on urinary, bowel, and sexual function using patient-reported outcome measures. Analysis was based on comparisons between groups defined by treatment received for both randomised and treatment choice cohorts in turn, with pooled estimates of intervention effect obtained using meta-analysis. Differences were estimated with adjustment for known prognostic factors using propensity scores. Results and limitations According to treatment received, more men receiving AM died of PCa (AM 1.85%, surgery 0.67%, radiotherapy 0.73%), whilst this difference remained consistent with chance in the randomised cohort (p = 0.08); stronger evidence was found in the exploratory analyses (randomised plus choice cohort) when AM was compared with the combined radical treatment group (p = 0.003). There was also strong evidence that metastasis (AM 5.6%, surgery 2.4%, radiotherapy 2.7%) and disease progression (AM 20.35%, surgery 5.87%, radiotherapy 6.62%) were more common in the AM group. Compared with AM, there were higher risks of sexual dysfunction (95% at 6 mo) and urinary incontinence (55% at 6 mo) after surgery, and of sexual dysfunction (88% at 6 mo) and bowel dysfunction (5% at 6 mo) after radiotherapy. The key limitations are the potential for bias when comparing groups defined by treatment received and changes in the protocol for AM during the lengthy follow-up required in trials of screen-detected PCa. Conclusions Analyses according to treatment received showed increased rates of disease-related events and lower rates of patient-reported harms in men managed by AM compared with men managed by radical treatment, and stronger evidence of greater PCa mortality in the AM group. Patient summary More than 95 out of every 100 men with low or intermediate risk localised prostate cancer do not die of prostate cancer within 10 yr, irrespective of whether treatment is by means of monitoring, surgery, or radiotherapy. Side effects on sexual and bladder function are better after active monitoring, but the risks of spreading of prostate cancer are more common

Functional and quality of life outcomes of localised prostate cancer treatments (prostate testing for cancer and treatment [ProtecT] study)

Objective To investigate the functional and quality of life (QoL) outcomes of treatments for localised prostate cancer and inform treatment decision-making. Patients and Methods Men aged 50–69 years diagnosed with localised prostate cancer by prostate-specific antigen testing and biopsies at nine UK centres in the Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) trial were randomised to, or chose one of, three treatments. Of 2565 participants, 1135 men received active monitoring (AM), 750 a radical prostatectomy (RP), 603 external-beam radiotherapy (EBRT) with concurrent androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) and 77 low-dose-rate brachytherapy (BT, not a randomised treatment). Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) completed annually for 6 years were analysed by initial treatment and censored for subsequent treatments. Mixed effects models were adjusted for baseline characteristics using propensity scores. Results Treatment-received analyses revealed different impacts of treatments over 6 years. Men remaining on AM experienced gradual declines in sexual and urinary function with age (e.g., increases in erectile dysfunction from 35% of men at baseline to 53% at 6 years and nocturia similarly from 20% to 38%). Radical treatment impacts were immediate and continued over 6 years. After RP, 95% of men reported erectile dysfunction persisting for 85% at 6 years, and after EBRT this was reported by 69% and 74%, respectively (P < 0.001 compared with AM). After RP, 36% of men reported urinary leakage requiring at least 1 pad/day, persisting for 20% at 6 years, compared with no change in men receiving EBRT or AM (P < 0.001). Worse bowel function and bother (e.g., bloody stools 6% at 6 years and faecal incontinence 10%) was experienced by men after EBRT than after RP or AM (P < 0.001) with lesser effects after BT. No treatment affected mental or physical QoL. Conclusion Treatment decision-making for localised prostate cancer can be informed by these 6-year functional and QoL outcomes

Bio-fuels and Food Security in South Africa: The Role of Indigenous and Traditional Food Crops

The level of food security in South Africa is largely being influenced by income inequalities and food prices with a large part of the population that has access to food but do not have the financial means to obtain it. Despite ever increasing food inflation, South Africa is still adopting policies and strategies which may contribute towards even higher levels of food inflation and consequently food insecurity in the near future. These include amongst others the National Bio-Fuel Industrial Strategy. Previous studies suggest that indigenous and traditional food crops play a substantial role in ensuring food security in several African countries. The question that arises is whether these alternative food crops do not hold the answer towards balancing the trade-off between fuel and food in South Africa. In order to answer that question, a literature review was conducted to understand the inter-linkages between food and bio-fuel as well as to understand the role that indigenous and traditional food crops are currently playing in Africa. To analyse the current status and potential of indigenous and traditional food crops in South Africa, a topical survey amongst 600 African households in the North-West Province was conducted. Contrary to other parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, the survey showed that current production and consumption of indigenous and traditional foods crops in South Africa is modest. This is mainly due to ignorance and unavailability of these specific crops. Despite this, the potential of these crops is evident in the South African context due to affordability, positive perceptions, and land availability near poor rural and peri-urban communities. Hence, indigenous and traditional food crops hold significant opportunities for South Africa to pursue bio-fuel production without compromising food security. To achieve this, specific interventions are needed to stimulate the production and consumption of indigenous and traditional food crops

A Stochastic Budgeting Analysis of Three Alternative Scenarios to Convert from Beef-Cattle Farming to Game Ranching

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the profitability and financial feasibility of three alternative scenarios to convert from beef-cattle farming to game ranching. The analyses acknowledge the importance of quantifying the probability of failure or success when making investment decisions. Risk is incorporated into a standard net present value analysis using risk simulation. De-trended historical auction prices of live game and on-the-hoof prices of weaner cattle were used to quantify price variability. The stochastic net present value analyses indicate that game ranching is more profitable than cattle farming. Although an investment in a limited number of common game species is financially feasible, the cash flow analysis indicates a decreasing probability of making more money with game when annual cash flows are compared to those generated by means of cattle farming. Both the high-value game species scenarios are financially unfeasible during the first five years. These infeasibilities stem from a high probability of not covering instalments to finance game purchases, the extent to which these instalments are not covered, and the high probability of shortfalls in consecutive years

Budget Allocation for Rural Agricultural Development in the NWP: A Multiple Criteria Analysis

In the light of past development failures, coupled with the pressure on government to deliver on their promises made, a framework is needed to improve the success of rural agricultural development. Consequently, detailed agricultural development plans were drafted with the intent to provide a framework or roadmap that will enable small-scale farmers to be more successful over the long term. However, development plans can only improve the success of agricultural development once they are implemented. This conveys another dimension of agricultural development, with government that is often faced with strict budget constraints. Budget allocations to agricultural development initiatives should therefore be done in a way that will yield the highest economic, social and environmental returns. Such a decision can become extremely complicated when in search of optimal allocation of limited budget resources. Consequently, a decision support system that will guide budget allocation for agricultural development initiatives is sorely needed. This article provides a framework on how multiple-criteria analysis can be used as a decision support tool that will ensure optimal budget allocation for agricultural development

Budget Allocation for Rural Agricultural Development in the NWP: A Multiple Criteria Analysis

In the light of past development failures, coupled with the pressure on government to deliver on their promises made, a framework is needed to improve the success of rural agricultural development. Consequently, detailed agricultural development plans were drafted with the intent to provide a framework or roadmap that will enable small-scale farmers to be more successful over the long term. However, development plans can only improve the success of agricultural development once they are implemented. This conveys another dimension of agricultural development, with government that is often faced with strict budget constraints. Budget allocations to agricultural development initiatives should therefore be done in a way that will yield the highest economic, social and environmental returns. Such a decision can become extremely complicated when in search of optimal allocation of limited budget resources. Consequently, a decision support system that will guide budget allocation for agricultural development initiatives is sorely needed. This article provides a framework on how multiple-criteria analysis can be used as a decision support tool that will ensure optimal budget allocation for agricultural development.International Development,

Multivariate analysis of pairs of HLA Class I alleles, showing pairs associated with favourable impact on HIV-1 disease control, with respect to maintenance of CD4+ T cell count and/or viral load suppression (q<0.2).

a<p>Pairs in bold and underlined are those that remain significant with a more stringent q<0.05.</p>b<p>Linkage is reported if relevant; otherwise designated as N/S = not significant (corrected for multiple comparisons; only values p<1.9E-05 are reported), or N/A = not applicable (two alleles at same locus).</p