Identifying the Predictors for Financial Crisis Using Gibbs Sampler

The Asian financial crisis broke out in Thailand in July 1997, and rapidly spread throughout the neighboring countries. An important question then arises? Is it possible to predict next financial crisis? If yes, then what are the predictors? The answer lies in combined usage of economic theory and econometric methods. By using the economic theory, one can locate possible potential crisis predictors whereas appropriate econometric models can pinpoint effective ones. In this paper we suggest using the Stochastic Search Variable Selection (SSVS) developed by George and McCulloch (1993) to identify the crisis predictors. As is suggested by the name, SSVS stochastically searches for practically significant variables. Each variable coefficient is assumed to come from a mixture of two normal variates with respectively large and small variances. For the former case, this variable is considered as insignificant and should be excluded from the model whereas for the latter, this variable is significant and should be included in the model. SSVS is not affected by the ordering of the candidate variables and is particularly effective when the sample size is much smaller than the number of all possible models. By employing SSVS method, we conclude that annual growth rate of money supply, $M_2$, and the ratio of government debt to GDP are promising predictors for financial crisis. It is worth mentioning that the frequently mentioned factors, such as ratio of total foreign reserve to GDP and the ratio of current deficit to GDP are not selected by our analysis. Our empirical analysis implies that monetary and fiscal policy play a crucial role in exploring the Asian financial crisis.early warning

Identifying the Predictors for Financial Crisis Using Gibbs Sampler

The Asian financial crisis broke out in Thailand in July 1997, and rapidly spread throughout the neighboring countries. An important question then arises? Is it possible to predict next financial crisis? If yes, then what are the predictors? The answer lies in combined usage of economic theory and econometric methods. By using the economic theory, one can locate possible potential crisis predictors whereas appropriate econometric models can pinpoint effective ones. In this paper we suggest using the Stochastic Search Variable Selection (SSVS) developed by George and McCulloch (1993) to identify the crisis predictors. As is suggested by the name, SSVS stochastically searches for practically significant variables. Each variable coefficient is assumed to come from a mixture of two normal variates with respectively large and small variances. For the former case, this variable is considered as insignificant and should be excluded from the model whereas for the latter, this variable is significant and should be included in the model. SSVS is not affected by the ordering of the candidate variables and is particularly effective when the sample size is much smaller than the number of all possible models. By employing SSVS method, we conclude that annual growth rate of money supply, $M_2$, and the ratio of government debt to GDP are promising predictors for financial crisis. It is worth mentioning that the frequently mentioned factors, such as ratio of total foreign reserve to GDP and the ratio of current deficit to GDP are not selected by our analysis. Our empirical analysis implies that monetary and fiscal policy play a crucial role in exploring the Asian financial crisis.Financial crisis, early warning

Exchange Rate Pass-through and Industry Characteristics: The Case of Taiwan's Exports of Midstream Petrochemical Products

Based on 1986-1992 survey data of 22 midstream petrochemical industries in Taiwan, the empirical results of the export price, the markup ratio and the price-cost margin equations in this study show that Taiwan's petrochemical firms absorb only a small portion of a given weighted exchange rate change in their export prices, markup ratios and price-cost margins. It implies that Taiwan's petrochemical firms have a weak pricing-to-market pattern. The empirical results may be explained by the volatility of profitability, high market concentration and small export/domestic production share. However, the impacts of the exchange rate change on the export price, markup ratio and price-cost margin have a tendency to increase during the period of 1987" to 1992. The tendency might be attributed to increasing competition of the petrochemical markets in the world, or Taiwanese firms' gradual realization of the importance of holding their world market shares in response to the exchange rate change.

The Effect of Affordance on Ubiquitous Commerce Consumption

The rapid development of ubiquitous technologies and mobile devices has made ubiquitous commerce (U-commerce) the next business wave. U-commerce enabled merchants with new opportunities to provide personalized services and novel shopping experiences to customers. Applying affordance theory, this study builds a research model that explains the consumer cognitive assimilation process in U-commerce and explores hedonic and impulsive consumption. This study played the U-commerce video for participants before they answered the questionnaires. The empirical results show that context-aware facilitation and social facilitation contribute equally in explaining cognitive assimilation. Meanwhile, cognitive assimilation significantly influences both hedonic consumption and impulsive consumption. This study sheds light on the two important facilitations derived from the U-commerce environment and also reveals the determinants for two types of interesting purchase behaviors in the U-commerce context

Prior treated tuberculosis and mortality risk in lung cancer

BackgroundLung cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer death worldwide, and tuberculosis (TB) is a common pre-existing disease. However, there is scarce literature studying the mortality risk in patients with prior TB and subsequent lung cancer.MethodsWe recruited lung cancer patients from the Taiwan Cancer Registry from 2011 to 2015 and classified them into two groups according to presence or absence of prior TB. We then matched them in a ratio of 1:4 using the exact matching approach. The mortality risk within 3 years after diagnosis of lung cancer was analyzed and compared between these two groups.ResultsDuring the study period, 43,472 patients with lung cancer were recruited, and of these, 1,211 (2.79%) patients had prior TB. After matching, this cohort included 5,935 patients with lung cancer in two groups: patients with prior TB before lung cancer (n = 1,187) and those without (n = 4,748). After controlling for demographic factors and comorbidities, the patients with prior TB had increased adjusted hazard ratios of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.04–1.23) and 1.11 (1.02–1.21) for all-cause and cancer-specific 3-year mortality, respectively, compared to the lung cancer patients without prior TB. Duration between TB and lung cancer (<1 year vs. 1–3 years vs. >3 years) had no differences for mortality risk.ConclusionIn the present study, 2.79% patients with lung cancer had prior TB, which was associated with higher 3-year mortality after they developed lung cancer. The mortality risk with prior TB did not decrease even if >3 years passed before diagnosis of lung cancer

Septic Pulmonary Embolism Requiring Critical Care: Clinicoradiological Spectrum, Causative Pathogens and Outcomes

OBJECTIVES: Septic pulmonary embolism is an uncommon but life-threatening disorder. However, data on patients with septic pulmonary embolism who require critical care have not been well reported. This study elucidated the clinicoradiological spectrum, causative pathogens and outcomes of septic pulmonary embolism in patients requiring critical care. METHODS: The electronic medical records of 20 patients with septic pulmonary embolism who required intensive care unit admission between January 2005 and December 2013 were reviewed. RESULTS: Multiple organ dysfunction syndrome developed in 85% of the patients, and acute respiratory failure was the most common organ failure (75%). The most common computed tomographic findings included a feeding vessel sign (90%), peripheral nodules without cavities (80%) or with cavities (65%), and peripheral wedge-shaped opacities (75%). The most common primary source of infection was liver abscess (40%), followed by pneumonia (25%). The two most frequent causative pathogens were Klebsiella pneumoniae (50%) and Staphylococcus aureus (35%). Compared with survivors, nonsurvivors had significantly higher serum creatinine, arterial partial pressure of carbon dioxide, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores, and they were significantly more likely to have acute kidney injury, disseminated intravascular coagulation and lung abscesses. The in-hospital mortality rate was 30%. Pneumonia was the most common cause of death, followed by liver abscess. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with septic pulmonary embolism who require critical care, especially those with pneumonia and liver abscess, are associated with high mortality. Early diagnosis, appropriate antibiotic therapy, surgical intervention and respiratory support are essential