Comparisons of upper air ozone at a coastal and urban site and the impacts of non-controllable ozone sources

This study quantified the impact of non-controllable and urban emission sources on the enhancement of ozone (O3) in the troposphere. These enhancements were investigated using data from simultaneous ozonesonde launches at Half Moon Bay (HMB), CA and San Jose (SJ), CA on eleven dates in July and August 2018. The urban O3 enhancement in the SJ vertical profile was derived by subtracting out HMB, which represents baseline O3, from the urban SJ profile. Within the planetary boundary layer (PBL), urban emissions had a large impact on SJ, as SJ O3 was 20–30 ppb higher than HMB for all dates. Above the PBL, most enhancement profiles remained close to zero, indicating little differences aloft between HMB and SJ. The two sites had strong correlation coefficients (CCs), highlighting the influence of baseline O3 on SJ. A major axis regression for all vertical levels between SJ and HMB revealed a slope of 1.00 SJ ppb/HMB ppb and intercept of 0.004 ppb. The percent contribution of mixing layer (ML) O3 to tropospheric O3 and tropospheric O3 to total column O3 demonstrates the predominant influence of baseline O3 on the O3 profile, even over a polluted urban region. The contribution of ML O3 was low for all dates, between 2 and 6%, whereas the tropospheric contribution was 11–18%. These findings emphasize the importance of baseline O3 in regions with reduced vertical mixing; polluted urban air near the surface has minimal impacts on O3 concentrations above the PBL

Climate variability of atmospheric rivers and droughts over the west coast of the united states from 2006 to 2019

Water resources are crucial to the livelihood and sustainability of the general public across the western United States. This study covers the timespan of both the third driest drought in Californian history between 2012 and 2015 as well as the extreme atmospheric river year in 2016-2017. The evaluation of vertical moisture profiles using Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) Radio Occultation (RO) data, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis of 500 hPa geopotential heights, 1000-500 hPa thickness, Optimum Interpolation (OI) Sea Surface Temperature (SST), NOAA/NDBC buoy data, and NASA, MEaSUREs, Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies (SSHA) were performed. The daily COSMIC time evolution from 2006 through 2015 showed a flat to slightly upward trend of both temperature and water vapor profiles through the entirety of the western US drought. Subsequently, a significant increase of temperatures and water vapor were recorded in early 2016 before the extreme Atmospheric River (AR) season of 2016-2017. The quantitative analyses suggest that warmer SST and higher SSHA lead to an increase of heat fluxes from the ocean into the troposphere, which forces thickness changes and thus the position of troughs in the geopotential height field changes afterwards, consequently pushing the trough eastward over the Pacific Northwest and potentially leading to an active AR year in the western US. It appears that regional COSMIC RO moisture profiles, seasonal SST, and SLH anomalies may serve as a precursor for seasonal or sub-seasonal precipitation outlook along the western US

An observational study of aerosols and tropical cyclones over the eastern atlantic ocean basin for recent hurricane seasons

The aerosol vertical distribution in the tropical cyclone (TC) main development region (MDR) during the recent active hurricane seasons (2015–2018) was investigated using observations from NASA’s Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) Satellite. The Total Attenuated Backscatter (TAB) at 532 nm was measured by the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP Lidar) onboard CALIPSO which is a polar orbiting satellite that evaluates the role clouds and atmospheric aerosols play in Earth’s weather, climate and air quality. The TAB was used to illustrate the dispersion and magnitude of the aerosol vertical distribution in the TC-genesis region. A combination of extinction quality flag, cloud fraction, and cloud-aerosol discrimination (CAD) scores were used to filter out the impact of clouds. To better describe the qualitative and quantitative difference of aerosol along the paths of African Easterly Waves (AEWs), the MDR was further divided into two domains from 18◦ W to 30◦ W (Domain 1) and 30◦ W to 45◦ W (Domain 2), respectively. The distribution of average aerosol concentration from the time of active cyclogenesis was compared and quantified between each case. The resulting observations suggest that there are two distinct layers of aerosols in the vertical profile, a near surface layer from 0.5–1.75 km and an upper layer at 1.75–5 km in altitude. A quantification of the total aerosol concentration values indicate domain 2 cases were associated with higher aerosol concentrations than domain 1 cases. The environmental variables such as sea surface temperature (SST), vertical windshear (VWS), and relative humidity (RH) tended to be favorable for genesis to occur. Among all cases in this study, the results suggested tropical cyclone genesis and further development occurred under dust-loaded conditions while the environmental variables were favorable, indicating that dust aerosols may not play a significant role in inhibiting the genesis process of TCs

Understanding the role of mean and eddy momentum transport in the rapid intensification of Hurricane Irma (2017) and Hurricane Michael (2018)

The prediction of rapid intensification (RI) in tropical cyclones (TCs) is a challenging problem. In this study, the RI process and factors contributing to it are compared for two TCs: an axis-symmetric case (Hurricane Irma, 2017) and an asymmetric case (Hurricane Michael, 2018). Both Irma and Michael became major hurricanes that made significant impacts in the United States. The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model was used to examine the connection between RI with forcing from the large-scale environment and the subsequent evolution of TC structure and convection. The observed large-scale environment was reasonably reproduced by HWRF forecasts. Hurricane Irma rapidly intensified in an environment with weak-to-moderate vertical wind shear (VWS), typically favorable for RI, leading to the symmetric development of vortical convective clouds in the cyclonic, vorticity-rich environment. Conversely, Hurricane Michael rapidly intensified in an environment of strong VWS, typically unfavorable for RI, leading to major asymmetries in the development of vortical convective clouds. The tangential wind momentum budget was analyzed for these two hurricanes to identify similarities and differences in the pathways to RI. Results suggest that eddy transport terms associated with convective processes positively contributed to vortex spin up in the early stages of RI and inhibited spin up in the later stages of RI in both TCs. In the early stages of RI, the mean transport terms exhibited notable differences in these TCs; they dominated the spin-up process in Irma and were of secondary importance to the spin-up process in Michael. Favorable aspects of the environment surrounding Michael appeared to aid in the RI process despite hostile VWS

Could the North Pacific Oscillation be modified by the initiation of the East Asian winter monsoon?

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 33(6), (2020): 2389-2406, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0112.1.This study investigates the modulation of North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) variability upon initiation of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The data show that the initiation of EAWM in the Philippine Sea strongly connects to the southern lobe variability of the NPO in January followed by a basin-scale oceanic Victoria mode pattern. No apparent connection was found for the northern lobe of the NPO when the ENSO signals are removed. The strengthening of the EAWM in November interacts with the Kuroshio front and generates a low-level heating source in the Philippine Sea. Significant Rossby wave sources are then formed in the lower to midtroposphere. Wave ray tracing analyses confirm the atmospheric teleconnection established by the Rossby wave propagation in the mid- to upper troposphere. Analyses of the origin of wave trajectories from the Philippine Sea show a clear eastward propagating pathway that affects the southern lobe of the NPO from the southern lobe of the western Pacific pattern at 500 hPa and above on the time scale of 20 days. No ray trajectories from the lower troposphere can propagate eastward to influence the central-eastern subtropical Pacific. The wave propagation process is further supported by the coupled model experiments.We thank three anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that have helped to improve the clarity of the presentation. This study was supported by the MOST Grants 107-2611-M-002-013-MY4 and 108-2111-M-002-006 -MY3, Taiwan.2020-08-2

Approximation of most penetrating particle size for fibrous filters considering Cunningham slip correction factor

In the estimation of the aerosol single fiber efficiency using fibrous filters, there is a size range, where the particles penetrate most effectively through the fibrous collectors, and corresponding minimum single fiber efficiency. For small particles in which the diffusion mechanism is dominant, the Cunningham slip correction factor (Cc) affects the single fiber efficiency and the most penetrating particle size (MPPS). Therefore, for accurate estimation, Cc is essential to be considered. However, many previous studies have neglected this factor because of its complexity and the associated difficulty in deriving the appropriate parameterization particularly for the MPPS. In this study, the expression for the MPPS, and the corresponding expression for the minimum single fiber efficiency are analytically derived, and the effects of Cc are determined. In order to accommodate the slip factor for all particle-size ranges, Cc is simplified and modified. Overall, the obtained analytical expression for the MPPS is in a good agreement with the exact solution

Data-driven wildfire risk prediction in northern california

Over the years, rampant wildfires have plagued the state of California, creating economic and environmental loss. In 2018, wildfires cost nearly 800 million dollars in economic loss and claimed more than 100 lives in California. Over 1.6 million acres of land has burned and caused large sums of environmental damage. Although, recently, researchers have introduced machine learning models and algorithms in predicting the wildfire risks, these results focused on special perspectives and were restricted to a limited number of data parameters. In this paper, we have proposed two data-driven machine learning approaches based on random forest models to predict the wildfire risk at areas near Monticello and Winters, California. This study demonstrated how the models were developed and applied with comprehensive data parameters such as powerlines, terrain, and vegetation in different perspectives that improved the spatial and temporal accuracy in predicting the risk of wildfire including fire ignition. The combined model uses the spatial and the temporal parameters as a single combined dataset to train and predict the fire risk, whereas the ensemble model was fed separate parameters that were later stacked to work as a single model. Our experiment shows that the combined model produced better results compared to the ensemble of random forest models on separate spatial data in terms of accuracy. The models were validated with Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, learning curves, and evaluation metrics such as: accuracy, confusion matrices, and classification report. The study results showed and achieved cutting-edge accuracy of 92% in predicting the wildfire risks, including ignition by utilizing the regional spatial and temporal data along with standard data parameters in Northern California

Chaotic Business Cycles and the Stabilization Policy in a Dynamic Macroeconomic Mode

国内総生産を始めとする多くの経済時系列データ（ただし，タイムトレンドや季節変動を除去した系列）はランダムに近い不規則な動きをしていることが，多くの実証研究によって確かめられている。本稿の目的はこのような不規則変動が何故発生するのかを標準的なマクロ経済モデルであるIS-LMModelを用いて理論的に調べ，その不規則変動を政策的に安定化する方法を提案することである。消費関数，投資関数，および貨幣需要関数が通常の仮定を満たすとき，周知のように右下がりのお曲線と右上がりのLM曲線が得られる。我々はこの様な自然な経済状況においても，不規則な経済変動（カオス）：が発生し得ることを示す。特筆すべき点は，このような不規則変動は経済システムの内生的な力によって創り出されるのであって，多くの経済学者がしばしば論じる外生的なランダムショックに起因するものではないことである。次に，中央銀行による裁量的金融政策を取り上げ，金融政策によってこのような不規則変動を安定化する方法を示すとともに，コンピューターシュミレーションによってその有効性を確かめる。結果として金融政策による経済変動の安定化は国内総生産を引き上げることがわかる。最後に，この安定化政策（金融政策）は，経済モデルに外生的ランダムショックを付加した場合にも有効であることが示される

Solitons in one-dimensional interacting Bose-Einstein system

A modified Gross-Pitaevskii approximation was introduced recently for bosons in dimension $d\le2$ by Kolomeisky {\it et al.} (Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 85} 1146 (2000)). We use the density functional approach with sixth-degree interaction energy term in the Bose field to reproduce the stationary-frame results of Kolomeisky {\it et al.} for a one-dimensional Bose-Einstein system with a repulsive interaction. We also find a soliton solution for an attractive interaction, which may be boosted to a finite velocity by a Galilean transformation. The stability of such a soliton is discussed analytically. We provide a general treatment of stationary solutions in one dimension which includes the above solutions as special cases. This treatment leads to a variety of stationary wave solutions for both attractive and repulsive interactions.Comment: Latex, 14 pages, No figur

Geometric phases for generalized squeezed coherent states

A simple technique is used to obtain a general formula for the Berry phase (and the corresponding Hannay angle) for an arbitrary Hamiltonian with an equally-spaced spectrum and appropriate ladder operators connecting the eigenstates. The formalism is first applied to a general deformation of the oscillator involving both squeezing and displacement. Earlier results are shown to emerge as special cases. The analysis is then extended to multiphoton squeezed coherent states and the corresponding anholonomies deduced.Comment: 15 page