Socio-hydrology: Use-inspired water sustainability science for the Anthropocene

Water is at the core of the most difficult sustainability challenges facing humans in the modern era, involving feedbacks across multiple scales, sectors, and agents. We suggest that a transformative new discipline is necessary to address many and varied water-related challenges in the Anthropocene. Specifically, we propose socio-hydrology as a use-inspired scientific discipline to focus on understanding, interpretation, and scenario development of the flows and stocks in the human-modified water cycle across time and space scales. A key aspect of socio-hydrology is explicit inclusion of two-way feedbacks between human and water systems, which differentiates socio-hydrology from other inter-disciplinary disciplines dealing with water. We illustrate the potential of socio-hydrology through three examples of water sustainability problems, defined as paradoxes, which can only be fully resolved within a new socio-hydrologic framework that encompasses such two-way coupling between human and water systems

Sensitivity of grain yields to historical climate variability in India

Fluctuations in temperature and precipitation influence crop productivity across the planet. With episodes of extreme climate becoming increasingly frequent, buffering crop production against these stresses is a critical aspect of climate adaptation. In India, where grain production and diets are closely linked, national food supply is sensitive to the effect of climate variability on monsoon grain production. Here we quantitatively examine the historical (1966–2011) relationship between interannual variations in temperature and rainfall and rainfed yield variability for five monsoon crops—rice and four alternative grains (finger millet, maize, pearl millet, and sorghum). Compared to rice, we find that alternative grains are significantly less sensitive to climate variation and generally experience smaller declines in yield under climate extremes. However, maximizing harvested area allocations to coarse grains (i.e. holding maize production constant) reduced grain production by 12.0 Mtonnes (−17.2%) under drought conditions and 12.8 Mtonnes (−18.0%) during non-drought years (non-drought). Increasing the harvested area allocated to all alternative grains (i.e. including maize) can enhance production by +39.6% (drought) and by +37.0% (non-drought). These alternative grains therefore offer promise for reducing variations in Indian grain production in response to climate shocks, but avoiding grain production shortfalls from increased alternative grains will require yield improvements that do not compromise their superior climate resilience

The hybrid experimental simplex algorithm – An alternative method for ‘sweet spot’ identification in early bioprocess development: Case studies in ion exchange chromatography

The capacity to locate efficiently a subset of experimental conditions necessary for the identification of an operating envelope is a key objective in many studies. We have shown previously how this can be performed by using the simplex algorithm and this paper now extends the approach by augmenting the established simplex method to form a novel hybrid experimental simplex algorithm (HESA) for identifying ‘sweet spots’ during scouting development studies. The paper describes the new algorithm and illustrates its use in two bioprocessing case studies conducted in a 96-well filter plate format. The first investigates the effect of pH and salt concentration on the binding of green fluorescent protein, isolated from Escherichia coli homogenate, to a weak anion exchange resin and the second examines the impact of salt concentration, pH and initial feed concentration upon the binding capacities of a FAb′, isolated from E. coli lysate, to a strong cation exchange resin. Compared with the established algorithm, HESA was better at delivering valuable information regarding the size, shape and location of operating ‘sweet spots’ that could then be further investigated and optimized with follow up studies. To test how favorably these features of HESA compared with conventional DoE (design of experiments) methods, HESA results were also compared with approaches including response surface modeling experimental designs. The results show that HESA can return ‘sweet spots’ that are equivalently or better defined than those obtained from DoE approaches. At the same time the deployment of HESA to identify bioprocess-relevant operating boundaries was accompanied by comparable experimental costs to those of DoE methods. HESA is therefore a viable and valuable alternative route for identifying ‘sweet spots’ during scouting studies in bioprocess development

Assessing the sustainability of post-Green Revolution cereals in India

Sustainable food systems aim to provide sufficient and nutritious food, while maximizing climate resilience and minimizing resource demands as well as negative environmental impacts. Historical practices, notably the Green Revolution, prioritized the single objective to maximize production over other nutritional and environmental dimensions. We quantitatively assess outcomes of alternative production decisions across multiple objectives using India’s ricedominated monsoon cereal production as an example. We perform a series of optimizations to maximize nutrient production (i.e., protein and iron), minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and resource use (i.e., water and energy), ormaximize resilience to climate extremes.We find that increasing the area under coarse cereals (i.e., millets, sorghum) improves nutritional supply (on average, +1% to +5% protein and +5% to +49% iron), increases climate resilience (1% to 13% fewer calories lost during an extreme dry year), and reduces GHGs (−2% to −13%) and demand for irrigation water (−3% to −21%) and energy (−2% to −12%) while maintaining calorie production and cropped area. The extent of these benefits partly depends on the feasibility of switching cropped area from rice to coarse cereals. Based on current production practices in 2 states, supporting these cobenefits could require greater manure and draft power but similar or less labor, fertilizer, and machinery. Nationaland state-level strategies considering multiple objectives in decisions about cereal production can move beyond many shortcomings of the Green Revolution while reinforcing the benefits. This ability to realistically incorporate multiple dimensions into intervention planning and implementation is the crux of sustainable food production systems worldwide

Including a pen and/or cover letter, containing social incentive text, had no effect on questionnaire response rate : a factorial randomised controlled Study within a Trial [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]

Background: Postal questionnaires are frequently used in randomised controlled trials to collect outcome data on participants; however, poor response can introduce bias, affect generalisability and validity, and reduce statistical power. The objective of this study was to assess whether a pen and/or social incentive text cover letter sent with a postal follow-up questionnaire increased response rates in a trial. Method: A two-by-two factorial randomised controlled trial was embedded within the OTIS host trial. Participants due their 12-month (final) follow-up questionnaire were randomised to be sent: a pen; a social incentive text cover letter; both; or neither. The primary outcome measure was the proportion of participants in each group who returned the questionnaire. Secondary outcomes were: time to return, completeness of the questionnaire, necessity of a reminder letter, and the cost effectiveness. Results: The overall 12-month questionnaire response rate was 721 out of 755 (95.5%). Neither the pen nor social incentive cover letter had a statistically significant effect on response rate: pen 95.2% vs. no pen 95.8%, adjusted OR 0.90 (95% CI 0.45 to 1.80; p=0.77); social incentive cover letter 95.2% vs. no social incentive cover letter 95.8%, adjusted OR 0.84 (95% CI 0.42 to 1.69, p=0.63). No statistically significant differences were observed between either of the intervention groups on time to response, need for a reminder or completeness. Therefore, neither intervention was cost-effective. Conclusions: We found no evidence of a difference in response rates associated with the inclusion of a pen and/or social incentive cover letter with the final follow-up postal questionnaire of the host trial. However, when these results are combined with previous SWATs, the meta-analysis evidence remains that including a pen increases response rates. The social incentive cover letter warrants further investigation to determine effectiveness

Payments for ecosystem services in the tropics: a closer look at effectiveness and equity

We undertake a review of academic literature that examines the effectiveness and equity-related performance of PES initiatives targeting biodiversity conservation in tropical and sub-tropical countries. We investigate the key features of such analyses as regards their analytical and methodological approach and we identify emerging lessons from PES practice, leading to a new suggested research agenda. Our results indicate that analyses of PES effectiveness have to date focused on either ecosystem service provision or habitat proxies, with only half of them making explicit assessment of additionality and most describing that payments have been beneficial for land cover and biodiversity. Studies evaluating the impact of PES on livelihoods suggest more negative outcomes, with an uneven treatment of the procedural and distributive considerations of scheme design and payment distribution, and a large heterogeneity of evaluative frameworks. We propose an agenda for future PES research based on the emerging interest in assessing environmental outcomes more rigorously and documenting social impacts in a more comparative and contextually situated form

An empirical approach towards the efficient and optimal production of influenza-neutralizing ovine polyclonal antibodies demonstrates that the novel adjuvant CoVaccine HT(TM) is functionally superior to Freund's adjuvant

Passive immunotherapies utilising polyclonal antibodies could have a valuable role in preventing and treating infectious diseases such as influenza, particularly in pandemic situations but also in immunocompromised populations such as the elderly, the chronically immunosuppressed, pregnant women, infants and those with chronic diseases. The aim of this study was to optimise current methods used to generate ovine polyclonal antibodies. Polyclonal antibodies to baculovirus-expressed recombinant influenza haemagglutinin from A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 H1N1 (PR8) were elicited in sheep using various immunisation regimens designed to investigate the priming immunisation route, adjuvant formulation, sheep age, and antigen dose, and to empirically ascertain which combination maximised antibody output. The novel adjuvant CoVaccine HT™ was compared to Freund’s adjuvant which is currently the adjuvant of choice for commercial production of ovine polyclonal Fab therapies. CoVaccine HT™ induced significantly higher titres of functional ovine anti-haemagglutinin IgG than Freund’s adjuvant but with fewer side effects, including reduced site reactions. Polyclonal hyperimmune sheep sera effectively neutralised influenza virus in vitro and, when given before or after influenza virus challenge, prevented the death of infected mice. Neither the age of the sheep nor the route of antigen administration appeared to influence antibody titre. Moreover, reducing the administrated dose of haemagglutinin antigen minimally affected antibody titre. Together, these results suggest a cost effective way of producing high and sustained yields of functional ovine polyclonal antibodies specifically for the prevention and treatment of globally significant diseases.Natalie E. Stevens, Cara K. Fraser, Mohammed Alsharifi, Michael P. Brown, Kerrilyn R. Diener, John D. Haybal