The relation of sarcopenia and disability in multiple sclerosis

Background: The relation of sarcopenia and disability in MS is unknown. Objective: To investigate the relation of temporal muscle thickness (TMT) and disability. Methods: A cohort of 132 people who presented with a clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) suggestive of MS at a mean age of 30.0 years, were prospectively followed clinically and with MRI over 30-years. TMT and expanded disability status scale (EDSS) were assessed at baseline, one- five- ten- fourteen- twenty- and thirty-year follow-up. Results: At 30-years, 27 participants remained classified as having had a CIS, 34 converted to relapsing remitting MS, 26 to secondary progressive MS, and 16 had died due to MS. Using linear mixed effect models with subject nested in time, greater annualized TMT-thinning was seen in individuals who developed MS (-0.04 mm/a, 95%CI: -0.07 to -0.01, p = 0.023). In those who converted to MS, a thinner TMT was reached at 14- (p = 0.008), 20- (p = 0.002) and 30-years (p< 0.001). TMT was negatively correlated with EDSS at 20-years (R=-0.18, p = 0.032) and 30-years (R-0.244, p = 0.005). Longitudinally, TMT at earlier timepoints was not predictive for 30-year clinical outcomes. Conclusion: TMT thinning is accelerated in MS and correlated with disability in later disease stages, but is not predictive of future disability

SVM recursive feature elimination analyses of structural brain MRI predicts near-term relapses in patients with clinically isolated syndromes suggestive of multiple sclerosis

Esclerosi múltiple; Classificació d'aprenentatge automàtic; Selecció de funcionsEsclerosis múltiple; Clasificación de aprendizaje automático; Selección de característicasMultiple sclerosis; Machine learning classification; Feature selectionMachine learning classification is an attractive approach to automatically differentiate patients from healthy subjects, and to predict future disease outcomes. A clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) is often the first presentation of multiple sclerosis (MS), but it is difficult at onset to predict who will have a second relapse and hence convert to clinically definite MS. In this study, we thus aimed to distinguish CIS converters from non-converters at onset of a CIS, using recursive feature elimination and weight averaging with support vector machines. We also sought to assess the influence of cohort size and cross-validation methods on the accuracy estimate of the classification. We retrospectively collected 400 patients with CIS from six European MAGNIMS MS centres. Patients underwent brain MRI at onset of a CIS according to local standard-of-care protocols. The diagnosis of clinically definite MS at one-year follow-up was the standard against which the accuracy of the model was tested. For each patient, we derived MRI-based features, such as grey matter probability, white matter lesion load, cortical thickness, and volume of specific cortical and white matter regions. Features with little contribution to the classification model were removed iteratively through an interleaved sample bootstrapping and feature averaging approach. Classification of CIS outcome at one-year follow-up was performed with 2-fold, 5-fold, 10-fold and leave-one-out cross-validation for each centre cohort independently and in all patients together. The estimated classification accuracy across centres ranged from 64.9% to 88.1% using 2-fold cross-validation and from 73% to 92.9% using leave-one-out cross-validation. The classification accuracy estimate was higher in single-centre, smaller data sets than in combinations of data sets, being the lowest when all patients were merged together. Regional MRI features such as WM lesions, grey matter probability in the thalamus and the precuneus or cortical thickness in the cuneus and inferior temporal gyrus predicted the occurrence of a second relapse in patients at onset of a CIS using support vector machines. The increased accuracy estimate of the classification achieved with smaller and single-centre samples may indicate a model bias (overfitting) when data points were limited, but also more homogeneous. We provide an overview of classifier performance from a range of cross-validation schemes to give insight into the variability across schemes. The proposed recursive feature elimination approach with weight averaging can be used both in single- and multi-centre data sets in order to bridge the gap between group-level comparisons and making predictions for individual patients.This project received funding from the European Union's Horizon2020 Research and Innovation Program EuroPOND under grant agreement number 666992, and it was supported by the National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre. We thank all participating partners of the MAGNIMS study group for sharing their data with us

Magnetization transfer ratio measures in normal-appearing white matter show periventricular gradient abnormalities in multiple sclerosis

In multiple sclerosis, grey matter pathology occurs mostly next to or near the outer surface of the brain. Using quantitative MRI, Liu et al. reveal that white matter abnormalities are also greatest near the surface of the brain, suggesting common elements in the genesis of grey and white matter patholog

ADvanced IMage Algebra (ADIMA): a novel method for depicting multiple sclerosis lesion heterogeneity, as demonstrated by quantitative MRI.

BACKGROUND: There are modest correlations between multiple sclerosis (MS) disability and white matter lesion (WML) volumes, as measured by T2-weighted (T2w) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans (T2-WML). This may partly reflect pathological heterogeneity in WMLs, which is not apparent on T2w scans. OBJECTIVE: To determine if ADvanced IMage Algebra (ADIMA), a novel MRI post-processing method, can reveal WML heterogeneity from proton-density weighted (PDw) and T2w images. METHODS: We obtained conventional PDw and T2w images from 10 patients with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) and ADIMA images were calculated from these. We classified all WML into bright (ADIMA-b) and dark (ADIMA-d) sub-regions, which were segmented. We obtained conventional T2-WML and T1-WML volumes for comparison, as well as the following quantitative magnetic resonance parameters: magnetisation transfer ratio (MTR), T1 and T2. Also, we assessed the reproducibility of the segmentation for ADIMA-b, ADIMA-d and T2-WML. RESULTS: Our study's ADIMA-derived volumes correlated with conventional lesion volumes (p < 0.05). ADIMA-b exhibited higher T1 and T2, and lower MTR than the T2-WML (p < 0.001). Despite the similarity in T1 values between ADIMA-b and T1-WML, these regions were only partly overlapping with each other. ADIMA-d exhibited quantitative characteristics similar to T2-WML; however, they were only partly overlapping. Mean intra- and inter-observer coefficients of variation for ADIMA-b, ADIMA-d and T2-WML volumes were all < 6 % and < 10 %, respectively. CONCLUSION: ADIMA enabled the simple classification of WML into two groups having different quantitative magnetic resonance properties, which can be reproducibly distinguished

Networks of microstructural damage predict disability in multiple sclerosis

Background: Network-based measures are emerging MRI markers in multiple sclerosis (MS). We aimed to identify networks of white (WM) and grey matter (GM) damage that predict disability progression and cognitive worsening using data-driven methods. // Methods: We analysed data from 1836 participants with different MS phenotypes (843 in a discovery cohort and 842 in a replication cohort). We calculated standardised T1-weighted/T2-weighted (sT1w/T2w) ratio maps in brain GM and WM, and applied spatial independent component analysis to identify networks of covarying microstructural damage. Clinical outcomes were Expanded Disability Status Scale worsening confirmed at 24 weeks (24-week confirmed disability progression (CDP)) and time to cognitive worsening assessed by the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT). We used Cox proportional hazard models to calculate predictive value of network measures. // Results: We identified 8 WM and 7 GM sT1w/T2w networks (of regional covariation in sT1w/T2w measures) in both cohorts. Network loading represents the degree of covariation in regional T1/T2 ratio within a given network. The loading factor in the anterior corona radiata and temporo-parieto-frontal components were associated with higher risks of developing CDP both in the discovery (HR=0.85, p<0.05 and HR=0.83, p<0.05, respectively) and replication cohorts (HR=0.84, p<0.05 and HR=0.80, p<0.005, respectively). The decreasing or increasing loading factor in the arcuate fasciculus, corpus callosum, deep GM, cortico-cerebellar patterns and lesion load were associated with a higher risk of developing SDMT worsening both in the discovery (HR=0.82, p<0.01; HR=0.87, p<0.05; HR=0.75, p<0.001; HR=0.86, p<0.05 and HR=1.27, p<0.0001) and replication cohorts (HR=0.82, p<0.005; HR=0.73, p<0.0001; HR=0.80, p<0.005; HR=0.85, p<0.01 and HR=1.26, p<0.0001). // Conclusions: GM and WM networks of microstructural changes predict disability and cognitive worsening in MS. Our approach may be used to identify patients at greater risk of disability worsening and stratify cohorts in treatment trials

A 30-Year Clinical and Magnetic Resonance Imaging Observational Study of Multiple Sclerosis and Clinically Isolated Syndromes

OBJECTIVE: Clinical outcomes in multiple sclerosis (MS) are highly variable. We aim to determine the long-term clinical outcomes in MS, and to identify early prognostic features of these outcomes. METHODS: One hundred thirty-two people presenting with a clinically isolated syndrome were prospectively recruited between 1984 and 1987, and followed up clinically and radiologically 1, 5, 10, 14, 20, and now 30 years later. All available notes and magnetic resonance imaging scans were reviewed, and MS was defined according to the 2010 McDonald criteria. RESULTS: Clinical outcome data were obtained in 120 participants at 30 years. Eighty were known to have developed MS by 30 years. Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores were available in 107 participants, of whom 77 had MS; 32 (42%) remained fully ambulatory (EDSS scores ≤3.5), all of whom had relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS), 3 (4%) had RRMS and EDSS scores >3.5, 26 (34%) had secondary progressive MS (all had EDSS scores >3.5), and MS contributed to death in 16 (20%). Of those with MS, 11 received disease-modifying therapy. The strongest early predictors (within 5 years of presentation) of secondary progressive MS at 30 years were presence of baseline infratentorial lesions and deep white matter lesions at 1 year. INTERPRETATION: Thirty years after onset, in a largely untreated cohort, there was a divergence of MS outcomes; some people accrued substantial disability early on, whereas others ran a more favorable long-term course. These outcomes could, in part, be predicted by radiological findings from within 1 year of first presentation. ANN NEUROL 2020;87:63-74

Motor network efficiency and disability in multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a composite MRI-based measure of motor network integrity, and determine if it explains disability better than conventional MRI measures in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: Tract density imaging and constrained spherical deconvolution tractography were used to identify motor network connections in 22 controls. Fractional anisotropy (FA), magnetization transfer ratio (MTR), and normalized volume were computed in each tract in 71 people with relapse onset MS. Principal component analysis was used to distill the FA, MTR, and tract volume data into a single metric for each tract, which in turn was used to compute a composite measure of motor network efficiency (composite NE) using graph theory. Associations were investigated between the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and the following MRI measures: composite motor NE, NE calculated using FA alone, FA averaged in the combined motor network tracts, brain T2 lesion volume, brain parenchymal fraction, normal-appearing white matter MTR, and cervical cord cross-sectional area. RESULTS: In univariable analysis, composite motor NE explained 58% of the variation in EDSS in the whole MS group, more than twice that of the other MRI measures investigated. In a multivariable regression model, only composite NE and disease duration were independently associated with EDSS. CONCLUSIONS: A composite MRI measure of motor NE was able to predict disability substantially better than conventional non-network-based MRI measures

A Risk Score for Predicting Multiple Sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) develops as a result of environmental influences on the genetically susceptible. Siblings of people with MS have an increased risk of both MS and demonstrating asymptomatic changes in keeping with MS. We set out to develop an MS risk score integrating both genetic and environmental risk factors. We used this score to identify siblings at extremes of MS risk and attempted to validate the score using brain MRI.78 probands with MS, 121 of their unaffected siblings and 103 healthy controls were studied. Personal history was taken, and serological and genetic analysis using the illumina immunochip was performed. Odds ratios for MS associated with each risk factor were derived from existing literature, and the log values of the odds ratios from each of the risk factors were combined in an additive model to provide an overall score. Scores were initially calculated using log odds ratio from the HLA-DRB1*1501 allele only, secondly using data from all MS-associated SNPs identified in the 2011 GWAS. Subjects with extreme risk scores underwent validation studies. MRI was performed on selected individuals.There was a significant difference in the both risk scores between people with MS, their unaffected siblings and healthy controls (p<0.0005). Unaffected siblings had a risk score intermediate to people with MS and controls (p<0.0005). The best performing risk score generated an AUC of 0.82 (95%CI 0.75–0.88).The risk score demonstrates an AUC on the threshold for clinical utility. Our score enables the identification of a high-risk sibling group to inform pre-symptomatic longitudinal studies