Primary election candidates change their campaign strategies in response to both their current and (potential) future opponents

Do candidates respond to their opponents during primary elections? If so, which opponents do they engage with: those running against them in the same primary or those who they might face in the general election? In new research, Kevin K. Banda and Thomas M. Carsey show that US Senate and gubernatorial candidates alter their television advertising strategies in response to the ads aired by both their primary election opponents and their potential general election opponents. These strategies are driven in part by the competitiveness of their primary elections; candidates who won their primary elections are more likely to react to their eventual general election opponent during the primary stage of the campaign

Operationalizing the Replication Standard

In response to widespread concerns about the integrity of research published in scholarly journals, several initiatives have emerged that are promoting research transparency through access to data underlying published scientific findings. Journal editors, in particular, have made a commitment to research transparency by issuing data policies that require authors to submit their data, code, and documentation to data repositories to allow for public access to the data. In the case of the American Journal of Political Science (AJPS) Data Replication Policy, the data also must undergo an independent verification process in which materials are reviewed for quality as a condition of final manuscript publication and acceptance. Aware of the specialized expertise of the data archives, AJPS called upon the Odum Institute Data Archive to provide a data review service that performs data curation and verification of replication datasets. This article presents a case study of the collaboration between AJPS and the Odum Institute Data Archive to develop a workflow that bridges manuscript publication and data review processes. The case study describes the challenges and the successes of the workflow integration, and offers lessons learned that may be applied by other data archives that are considering expanding their services to include data curation and verification services to support reproducible research

Spatial Distribution of Petroleum Hydrocarbons in Sediment Cores from Blind Pass, St. Pete Beach, Florida

One hundred and one sediment cores were collected to characterize the spatial distribution of petroleum hydrocarbons within and just outside Blind Pass, St. Pete Beach, Florida. Twenty-five percent of the cores exhibited levels of petroleum hydrocarbons above detection limits of the gas chromatograph/flame ionization detector (GC/FID) (0.01 mg/Kg), but at generally low concentrations. Petroleum hydrocarbon speciation studies of these samples (gas chromatography/mass spectroscopy [GC/MS]) indicate above-detection level (1 μg/Kg) petroleum hydrocarbons are similar to the non-volatile petroleum hydrocarbons found in a Bouchard 155 reference sample collected after the 1993 oil spill in the area, but are in a much degraded and weathered state. Individual petroleum hydrocarbons were, in all but one case, below the threshold effective level (TEL) described in the literature (MacDonald, 1994). The petroleum hydrocarbons were primarily found at 100-300 cm depth in Blind Pass cores. Above-detection level petroleum hydrocarbons were generally found in samples from cores in the center of the channel, near the edges of the shoal, and just outside of Blind Pass. A second mixture of hydrocarbons, primarily phthalates, ketones, and ether, was found at relatively shallow core depths (0-99 cm) in the Mid- and North End Channel cores. These suggest a separate source of contamination, possibly storm water runoff. The fuel fluorescence detector (FFD) probe was investigated for its ability to detect petroleum hydrocarbons in marine sediments. When analyzed with the FFD, all sediments from the cores produced peaks of fluorescence, but none above the background levels of Blind Pass native sediments. All but two samples analyzed by GC/FID were below the detection limits (100 ppm) of the FFD. These samples were found in dark-colored sediments. The combination of the detection limits of the instrument, sediment color, and the degraded nature of the heavier weight petroleum hydrocarbons may have resulted in fluorescence outputs below background levels. These studies demonstrate that the distribution of petroleum hydrocarbons within Blind Pass sediments is generally low and patchy. However, 25% of the cores exhibited levels above detection using GC/FID/MS. These cores could be subjected to individual speciation studies which indicate generally below TEL levels and an association of some, but not all, with the 1993 oil spill in Blind Pass. Appendix A provides photographs and tables for sediment subsamples which exhibited total petroleum hydrocarbon concentrations above detection limits, while Appendix B presents the results from fuel fluorescence detector probe analyses. A discussion of the results of the study in relation to sediment quality guidelines and soil cleanup target level guidance documents is included as Appendix C. Some preliminary results using the above techniques on core samples from the nearby John’s Pass are presented in Appendix D

Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Model Development for the Southeast Florida Coastal Marine Ecosystem

The overall goal of the MARES (MARine and Estuarine goal Setting) project for South Florida is “to reach a science-based consensus about the defining characteristics and fundamental regulating processes of a South Florida coastal marine ecosystem that is both sustainable and capable of providing the diverse ecosystem services upon which our society depends.” Through participation in a systematic process of reaching such a consensus, science can contribute more directly and effectively to the critical decisions being made both by policy makers and by natural resource and environmental management agencies. The document that follows briefly describes MARES overall and this systematic process. It then describes in considerable detail the resulting output from the first step in the process, the development of an Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Model (ICEM) for the third subregion to be addressed by MARES, the Southeast Florida Coast (SEFC). What follows with regard to the SEFC relies upon the input received from more than 60 scientists, agency resource managers, and representatives of environmental organizations during workshops held throughout 2009–2012 in South Florida

Boynton-Delray Coastal Water Quality Monitoring Program

This report discusses a sequence of six cruises in the vicinity of the Boynton-Delray (South Central) treated-wastewater plant outfall plume (26°27\u2743 N, 80°2\u2732 W), the Boynton Inlet (26°32\u2743 N, 80°2\u2730 W), and the Lake Worth Lagoon, Palm Beach County, Florida. The sampling cruises took place on June 5-6, 2007; August 28-29, 2007; October 18-19, 2007; February 14 and 18, 2008; May 19-20, 2008; and July 11-13, 2008. Water was sampled at 18 locations at the surface, middle, and near the seafloor (where there was sufficient depth) for a total of 45 samples; these samples were analyzed for a variety of nutrients and related parameters. The water sampling unit contained a conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) instrument from which data were obtained at each sampling site. Synchronal ocean current data were measured by a nearby acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) instrument. The inlet measurements were consistently lower in salinity and more acidic (lower in pH) than the coastal ocean and were warmer during the May and, especially, during the February cruises. For most analytes, viz., nitrite+nitrate (N+N), total suspended solids (TSS), chlorophyll-a, silica (Si), and total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), the lagoon concentrations were significantly higher than the coastal ocean; the inlet concentrations appeared to be consistent with lagoon water with partial mixing with the coastal ocean, as expected. Estimates of the nutrient flux to the coastal ocean were computed: approximately 1,500 kg of dissolved nitrogen (N), 2,350 kg of silicate (Si), 33 kg of orthophosphate (P), and 59 kg of ammonium (NH4) per day were delivered to the coastal ocean through the inlet. The outfall boil at South Central outfall (the smallest in volume of the six outfalls in southeast Florida) is only visible under ideal conditions. In the six cruises described in this document, the outfall boil could be found in only one cruise (August 28-29, 2007). Elevated concentrations of nutrients (N+N, P, Si, and P) at the outfall vicinity were measured, and these concentrations decreased rapidly away from the outfall for most analytes, to become undistinguished from the background within 3 km or less. Not finding the boil, however, in five of six cruises meant that the waters with the highest concentrations were probably missed. When the boil was sampled in August 2007, N+N, P, and total dissolved phosphorus (TDP) concentrations at the boil were roughly the same as from the inlet. For other analytes (chlorophyll-a, TSS, Si, and dissolved organic carbon [DOC]), the concentrations at or near the outfall were significantly less than those from the lagoon and inlet on most of the cruises. The coastal ocean appeared to be significantly impacted by the Boynton Inlet and less so from the inlet. A suggestion of a source to the south was seen in some analytes. Measurements from the Gulf Stream Reef area were the lowest in the study, and may provide “background” concentrations for this region. As expected, the coastal ocean was warmer and more stratified in the summer compared to the winter, e.g., whereas no thermocline was noted in the CTD data from February 2007, a strong thermocline was observed in most casts during July 2008. In certain cases (e.g., N+N in June 2007, pH in July 2008), an increase in the concentration (decrease for pH) from north to south implied a source from the south, e.g., the Boca Raton Inlet or Boca Raton outfall

Seasonal Carbonate Chemistry Dynamics on Southeast Florida Coral Reefs: Localized Acidification Hotspots From Navigational Inlets

Seawater carbonate chemistry varies across temporal and spatial scales. Shallow-water environments can exhibit especially dynamic fluctuations as biological and physical processes operate on a smaller water volume relative to open ocean environments. Water was collected on a bi-monthly basis from seven sites off of southeast Florida (Miami-Dade and Broward counties), including four reefs, and three closely-associated inlets. Significant seasonal fluctuations in carbonate chemistry were observed on reef sites, with elevated pCO2 in the warmer wet season. Inlets demonstrated a more dynamic range, with periodic pulses of acidified water contributing to, on average, more advanced acidification conditions than those found at nearby reefs. Within inlet environments, there was a significant negative correlation between seawater salinity and both total alkalinity (TA) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), which was in contrast to the patterns observed on reefs. Elevated TA and DIC in low salinity waters likely reflect carbonate dissolution as a result of organic matter decomposition. Together, these data highlight the important role that inlets play on shallow-water carbonate chemistry dynamics within southeast Florida waters and underscore the degree to which engineered freshwater systems can contribute to coastal acidification on localized scales

Gubernatorial Electoral Coalitions in the Great Plains

This paper examines the nature of the electoral coalitions that develop surrounding gubernatorial candidates in the states of the Great Plains. It focuses on the contribution various groups make toward the electoral success or failure of gubernatorial candidates, highlighting the underlying political divisions within a state\u27s population. This paper marks a first step into the study of these coalitions by offering a basic description of them. Some discussion of how electoral coalitions respond to candidate and campaign- related factors is presented. The implications of these findings are discussed, along with several considerations for further research. The data used for this analysis come from election day exit polls and a content analysis of the newspaper coverage of each campaign

Replication data for: New Measures of Partisanship, Ideology, and Policy Mood in the American States

We construct measures of U.S. state partisan identification, self-reported ideology, and policy mood using data from the 2000 and 2004 National Annenberg Election Surveys (NAES) and the 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES). These measures improve on existing methods for estimating state-level preferences because the surveys provide larger state samples without pooling across years. After detailing our methods for constructing the measures, we assess their validity through comparisons with measures already in use by scholars of state politics. We find that our measures correlate strongly with those created by Erikson, Wright, and McIver (1993) and Berry et al. (1998) and with measures from state-level polls. We conclude that our measures can be useful to research in state politics