The unholy trinity of financial contagion

Over the last 20 years, some financial events, such as devaluations or defaults, have triggered an immediate adverse chain reaction in other countries -- which we call fast and furious contagion. Yet, on other occasions, similar events have failed to trigger any immediate international reaction. We argue that fast and furious contagion episodes are characterized by "the unholy trinity": (i) they follow a large surge in capital flows; (ii) they come as a surprise; and (iii) they involve a leveraged common creditor. In contrast, when similar events have elicited little international reaction, they were widely anticipated and took place at a time when capital flows had already subsided.financial crises contagion capital flows credit ratings credit banks exchange rates

When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies

Based on a sample of 104 countries, we document four key stylized facts regarding the interaction between capital flows, fiscal policy, and monetary policy. First, net capital inflows are procyclical (i.e., external borrowing increases in good times and falls in bad times) in most OECD and developing countries. Second, fiscal policy is procyclical (i.e., government spending increases in good times and falls in bad times) for the majority of developing countries. Third, for emerging markets, monetary policy appears to be procyclical (i.e., policy rates are lowered in good times and raised in bad times). Fourth, in developing countries – and particularly for emerging markets – periods of capital inflows are associated with expansionary macroeconomic policies and periods of capital outflows with contractionary macroeconomic policies. In such countries, therefore, when it rains, it does indeed pour.fiscal policy capital flows interest rates cycles monetary policy government spending growth

The effect of a late decaying scalar on the neutralino relic density

If the energy density of the Universe before nucleosynthesis is dominated by a scalar field phi that decays and reheats the plasma to a temperature T_{RH} smaller than the standard neutralino freeze out temperature, the neutralino relic density differs from its standard value. In this case, the relic density depends on two additional parameters: T_{RH}, and the number of neutralinos produced per phi decay per unit mass of the phi field. In this paper, we numerically study the neutralino relic density as a function of these reheating parameters within minimal supersymmetric standard models and show that the dark matter constraint can almost always be satisfied.Comment: 16 pages, 14 figure

Semilattices global valuations in the topos approach to quantum mechanics

In the framework of the topos approach to quantum mechanics a kind of global valuation is introduced and studied. It allows us to represent certain features related to the logical consequences of properties about quantum systems when its phase space is endowed with an intuitionistic structureFil: Freytes Solari, Hector Carlos. Università di Cagliari; Italia. Universidad Nacional de Rosario; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: de Ronde, Christian. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Filosofía y Letras. Instituto de Filosofía "Dr. Alejandro Korn"; Argentina. Center Leo Apostel; Bélgica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Domenech, Graciela. Center Leo Apostel; Bélgica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion

Over the last 20 years, some financial events, such as devaluations or defaults, have triggered an immediate adverse chain reaction in other countries -- which we call fast and furious contagion. Yet, on other occasions, similar events have failed to trigger any immediate international reaction. We argue that fast and furious contagion episodes are characterized by "the unholy trinity": (i) they follow a large surge in capital flows; (ii) they come as a surprise; and (iii) they involve a leveraged common creditor. In contrast, when similar events have elicited little international reaction, they were widely anticipated and took place at a time when capital flows had already subsided.

Geografía del tiempo: análisis espacio-temporal de las actividades cotidianas de jóvenes en Mar del Plata

La ponencia presenta un método para el análisis espacio-temporal de la actividad cotidiana de jóvenes en Mar del Plata. Forma parte de un proyecto de investigación en curso, que aspira analizar las actividades realizadas, su distribución en el espacio y en el tiempo. Bajo el modelo espacio-temporal de la Geografía del Tiempo (Hagerstrand) se estudia la actividad cotidiana del individuo concreto: jóvenes que cursan el último año en instituciones educativas, considerando las características personales y el contexto organizativo. Los resultados permitirán interpretar y valorar el uso del tiempo diario de los jóvenes en función a las actividades cotidianas realizadas, duración, espacios frecuentados, distancia recorrida y medio de transporte utilizado.Fil: Benseny, Graciela. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales; Argentina.Fil: Mantero, Juan Carlos. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales; Argentina

Análisis del tiempo diario, actividades, espacios y desplazamientos de jóvenes en Mar del Plata

El presente proyecto integra un programa de investigación que se inscribe en el "Estudio de los Centros Turísticos del Litoral Atlántico Bonaerense", cuyo propósito es analizar las actividades cotidianas realizadas por los jóvenes, su distribución en el espacio y en el tiempo, en relación con los horarios en que se desarrollan y los desplazamientos que se originan. El proyecto a desarrollar se centra en la presentación de una metodología para el análisis espacio-temporal de la actividad cotidiana, donde a través del estudio del uso del tiempo se analiza la localización temporal, frecuencia y duración de las actividades sociales y su distribución espacial.Fil: Benseny, Graciela. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales; Argentina.Fil: Mantero, Juan Carlos. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales; Argentina