The Growth-Interest Rate Cycle in the United States and its Consequences for Emerging Markets

At the time of writing there were widespread concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. There is conclusive evidence that the pace of growth has slowed, which has prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates on two occasions (a total of 100 basis points thus far). As usual, when faced with this kind of turning point, analysts and policy makers alike wonder whether the United States will achieve a “soft landing” or whether the downturn is more serious and protracted—in the worst scenario, the new weakness could signal the end of the new economy. Furthermore, recent inflation surprises have not been encouraging, as higher-thanexpected inflation numbers may curtail the Federal Reserve’s desire and ability to act countercyclically. In this paper, we do not attempt to provide any insights into what lies ahead for the U.S. economy. Our focus is on gaining a better understanding of how the U.S. business cycle, its associated monetary policy cycle, and their interaction affect developing countries. The question of North-South linkages is hardly a new one; the role of trade and primary commodity markets in linking developed and developing countries has a long history (see, for instance, Prebisch, 1950 and Singer, 1950). The links between debtor and creditor nations are also not new (see Diaz- Alejandro, 1984, Dornbusch, 1985, and Calvo, Leiderman, and Reinhart, 1993). Indeed, what is “new” is that some links that had been thought to be extinct have revived in recent years while some “old” links have weakened. As Bordo and Eichengreen (1998) observe, the decade of the 1990s shares some of the features of an earlier age of globalization and high capital mobility prior to World War I; namely, portfolio capital flows to emerging markets have re-emerged as an important link between northern lenders and southern borrowers. This revival is particularly pronounced in the larger Latin American countries. Some of the traditional links, however, may have weakened, as many countries in Asia and Latin America have successfully diversified their exports away from primary commodities. Hence, terms-of-trade shocks may (in some cases) play a smaller role today than in the past. Both of these observations would suggest that, in general, trade/commodity price links may have weakened while financial links may have become stronger. However, one must be cautious in interpretation owing to the large variation across countries in the degree of trade and capital market integration. While the share of primarycommodities in Mexico’s exports has declined dramatically in the past 30 years, the importance of U.S. markets, owing to NAFTA, has soared, which suggests that the trade channel is quantitatively important in the Mexican case.2 These are the questions we analyze. Our focus is on how developments in the United States affect capital flows and growth in emerging market countries across various regions and country groups.

Rock Iconography in the LP format (1956 - 1982)

Un recorrido audiovisual a través de los primeros veinticinco años de un fenómeno que trasciende lo estrictamente musical -el Rock-; los diferentes subgéneros que se han ido sucediendo y la emanaciones iconográficas que esos periodos han generado. El ámbito del análisis queda circunscrito a un formato concreto: el disco de larga duración (LP), utilizado desde la irrupción de Elvis Presley, en 1956, hasta el advenimiento del disco compacto (CD) en 1982.An audio-visual journey through the first twenty five years of Rock, going beyond of strictly musical aspects. The different minor genres across the decades and the iconographic emanations generated in these periods. This analysis is related directly to an specific format: the Long Play record (LP), from Elvis Presley, in 1956, up to the advent of Compact Disc (CD), in 1982

El ciclo de crecimiento de la tasa de interés en Estados Unidos y sus consecuencias para los mercados emergentes

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Para el momento en que se realizó este trabajo existía una inquietud generalizada sobre el buen estado de la economía estadounidense. Hay elementos de juicio concluyentes que indican que el ritmo del crecimiento se ha desacelerado, lo que ha llevado a la Reserva Federal a recortar las tasas de interés en dos oportunidades (para un total de 100 puntos base hasta ahora). Como ya es habitual, ante esta clase de viraje, analistas y diseñadores de políticas por igual se preguntan si Estados Unidos conseguirá un aterrizaje suave o si el desmejoramiento de la coyuntura será más grave y prolongado; en el peor escenario, la nueva debilidad puede anunciar el fin de la nueva economía. Además, las recientes sorpresas inflacionarias no han sido nada alentadoras, ya que cifras inflacionarias superiores a lo anticipado pueden entorpecer el deseo y la capacidad de la Reserva Federal de actuar de manera anticíclica.

Crecimiento y financiamiento externo en América Latina

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se trata el desempeño económico de América Latina durante la última década, y se le presta atención especial al crecimiento y al sector financiero. En particular, se muestra que factores externos tales como las tasas de interés en EE. UU. y el ciclo económico desempeñan un papel clave en los ingresos de capitales, la inversión y el crecimiento. Como consecuencia de ello, el crecimiento económico de la región tiende a ser frágil y exhibe un elevado grado de movimiento conjunto, es decir, una elevada correlación de la producción entre los países. Esta última característica exacerba la fragilidad, porque hay poco espacio para el aseguramiento mutuo dentro de América Latina, en caso de que un país sufra una sacudida grave, y el financiamiento durante los cambios desfavorables de la coyuntura debe provenir principalmente de fuera de la región.

A novel qualitative prospective methodology to assess human error during accident sequences

Numerous theoretical models and techniques to assess human error were developed since the 60's. Most of these models were developed for the nuclear, military, and aviation sectors. These methods have the following weaknesses that limit their use in industry: the lack of analysis of underlying causal cognitive mechanisms, need of retrospective data for implementation, strong dependence on expert judgment, focus on a particular type of error, and/or analysis of operator behaviour and decision-making without considering the role of the system in such decisions. The purpose of the present research is to develop a qualitative prospective methodology that does not depend exclusively on retrospective information, that does not require expert judgment for implementation and that allows predicting potential sequences of accidents before they occur. It has been proposed for new (or existent) small and medium- scale facilities, whose processes are simple. To the best of our knowledge, a methodology that meets these requirements has not been reported in literature thus far. The methodology proposed in this study was applied to the methanol storage area of a biodiesel facility. It could predict potential sequences of accidents, through the analysis of information provided by different system devices and the study of the possible deviations of operators in decision-making. It also enabled the identification of the shortcomings in the human-machine interface and proposed an optimization of the current configuration.Fil: Calvo Olivares, Romina Daniela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ingenieria. Instituto de Capacitación Especial y Desarrollo de Ingeniería Asistida por Computadora; ArgentinaFil: Rivera, Selva Soledad. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ingenieria. Instituto de Capacitación Especial y Desarrollo de Ingeniería Asistida por Computadora; ArgentinaFil: Núñez Mc Leod, Jorge Eduardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ingenieria. Instituto de Capacitación Especial y Desarrollo de Ingeniería Asistida por Computadora; Argentin

Using Canopies indices to Quantify the Economic optimum nitrogen rate in Spring Wheat

In-season N applications to spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) may increase profits and improve N fertilizer accuracy. The objectives were to develop a calibration tool employing normalized difference vegetative index (NDVI) and SPAD 502 chlorophyll meter (SPAD) measurements for calculating the differential from the economic optimum N rate (dEONR) at growth stages Z22, Z24, and Z31 to Z39 and provide N rate algorithms for use in applying N fertilizer at a variable rate. Sensing was conducted trials over 3 yr encompassing 10 site-years across Southeastern Buenos Aires Province, Argentina. The relationship between sensor indices and dEONR was evaluated by fitting quadratic plateau (QP) regression models. Statistically significant QP models were determined at the Z24, Z31, and Z39 growth stages. Relative SPAD (rSPAD) and relative NDVI (rNDVI) reduced variation and improved the calibration of measured N stress with the dEONR. For Z31 and Z39, the rSPAD had the best goodness of fit statistics when compared to rNDVI [adjusted R2 (adjR2)= 0.67 and 0.57 at Z31 and 0.68 and 0.52 at Z39, respectively]. However, adjustment at Z24 was higher for rNDVI (adjR2 = 0.53 and 0.61 for rSPAD and rNDVI, respectively). A single QP model to estimate the dEONR with 58% confidence was adjusted for the Z31 and Z39 growth stages. This indicates that the same calibration for N rate determination based on rSPAD or rNDVI values can be used during stem elongation in spring wheat. This model can be used as an N rate algorithm for applying N fertilizer in-season.Fil: Reussi Calvo, Nahuel Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Sainz Rozas, Hernan Rene. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria; ArgentinaFil: Echeverria, Hernan Eduardo. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; ArgentinaFil: Diovisalvi, Nadia Rosalia. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin